XRP price prediction avalanche! Short positions tighten and fall below the hundred-day line, with $2.7 becoming a critical threshold.

XRP has fallen for two consecutive days below the 100-day EMA, with short positions tightening control. Investors who bought below $1 are frantically taking profits, with Glassnode data showing that two waves of profit-taking have exhausted bullish momentum. XRP price predictions indicate that short-term support at $2.70 and the 200-day moving average at $2.64 are critical defense lines, with the MACD continuously signaling sell. If these levels cannot be maintained, it may trigger a long-term fall, with breaking through the psychological resistance of $3 being the only chance for a turnaround.

XRP Technical Short Positions Fully Control

On October 11, XRP's performance was sluggish, with a trading price of around $2.74, experiencing a consecutive two-day fall, reflecting the significant bearish wave in the cryptocurrency market. Bulls attempted to cut intraday losses but failed, and the technical indicators showed a clear bearish trend, with market sentiment being extremely low.

· MACD sell signal continues to expand

Since Thursday, the sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has persisted, indicating that short positions hold a significant advantage. If the blue MACD line remains below the red signal line, investors are likely to reduce their risk exposure, and XRP may continue its downward trend.

Signs of deteriorating technical indicators:

MACD status: the blue line continues to be below the red line, sell signal is strong.

Moving Average Break: Breaks below the 100-day EMA ($2.85), technicals turn bearish.

Volume characteristics: a fall accompanied by increased volume indicates active selling.

Trend confirmation: Overall downtrend since the July high of 3.66 USD.

The downtrend of XRP has extended below the 100-day EMA, which is an important technical watershed. Once the long-term moving average support is broken, it typically signals a trend reversal, and the control of short positions will further tighten.

Key price levels are precarious

XRP price prediction shows that if the current price level cannot be maintained, it will face the risk of a chain fall:

Support levels analysis below:

2.74 USD: Current price (Friday)

2.70 USD: short positions support level (tested at the end of September)

2.64 USD: 200-day moving average (last line of defense)

Below $2.50: If it loses support, it will open up more room for a deeper pullback.

If the blue MACD line remains below the red signal line, investors are likely to reduce risk exposure, and XRP may continue its downward trend, falling towards the short-term support level of $2.70 tested at the end of September and the 200-day moving average of $2.64.

· Increased profit-taking intensifies selling pressure

According to Glassnode data, profit taking is the core factor suppressing XRP bullish momentum. More and more investors who bought XRP below $1 are realizing their profits, which intensifies selling pressure and absorbs the bullish momentum of the token.

· Buyers are crazily dumping below 1 dollar

The price of XRP was around $0.60 in November and broke through $2.00 by the end of the year with a parabolic trend. The bullish momentum of XRP was sustained in the first quarter due to the cryptocurrency market's positive response to President Trump's commitment to changing the cryptocurrency industry through advocating for clear regulations that support innovation and protect customers.

XRP Price Historical Review:

November 2024: starting to pump at $0.60

End of 2024: Breakthrough 2.00 USD

Mid-January 2025: Reaches 3.14 USD

April 2025: Tariffs plummet to $1.62

Mid-July 2025: Set a historical high of $3.66

Current: $2.74 (down over 25%)

Since reaching a historic high of $3.66, XRP has maintained an overall downtrend, reflecting risk aversion and a general lack of confidence in altcoins.

Glassnode data reveals the scale of profit taking

(Source: Glassnode)

Glassnode stated: "Two major waves of realized profit - December 2024 and July 2025 - have so far exhausted most of the market's bullish momentum."

Profit pullback analysis:

First wave (December 2024): Buyers at $0.60 are dumping heavily in the $2-3 range.

Second wave (July 2025): Buyers below 1 dollar liquidated near the high point of 3.66 dollars.

Impact: Early investors continue to cash out, creating long-term selling pressure.

Result: Bullish momentum is being continuously absorbed, and the bulls' counterattack is lacking strength.

This profit pullback pattern indicates that although the XRP price remains high, holders lack confidence and choose to secure profits rather than hold long-term. This poses long-term pressure on XRP price predictions.

XRP Price Prediction Key Level Analysis

(Source: Trading View)

· Support levels: $2.70 and $2.64 lifeline

In the situation where bulls are struggling to stabilize their recovery, XRP's downtrend extends below the 100-day EMA, with a short-term target price falling towards the support range of $2.70 and $2.64.

Importance ranking of support levels:

2.70 USD: A short-term support tested at the end of September, a psychological barrier.

2.64 USD: 200-day moving average, long-term technical support

$2.50: If the above two support levels are lost, this whole number level will be tested.

Once it falls below the 200-day moving average of $2.64, the technical outlook will completely turn bearish, potentially triggering a deeper sell-off and increasing the risk of a prolonged decline.

· Upper resistance: 3.00 USD reversal opportunity

On the other hand, continuously breaking through the 100-day EMA resistance level at $2.85 and the 50-day EMA resistance level at $2.91 may increase the possibility of XRP price breaking the downward trend and pushing the pump above $3.00.

Resistance levels analysis:

2.85 USD: 100-day EMA, has fallen below and needs to recover

2.91 USD: 50-day EMA, key for short-term rebound

3.00 USD: psychological resistance level, breaking through will reverse the short positions pattern.

$3.14: January high point, full recovery will take time

To achieve this bullish scenario, XRP needs to see a turnaround in both technical and fundamental aspects. However, under the current circumstances where the MACD sell signal persists, profit-taking pressure is immense, and risk-off sentiment is spreading, the difficulty of breaking through 3 dollars is extremely high.

Hedging Sentiment and Market Outlook

Despite Bitcoin reaching a historical high of $126,199 on Monday, overall market interest in altcoins remains subdued. This divergence indicates that funds are concentrated in mainstream currencies like Bitcoin, while altcoins, including XRP, face outflow pressure.

· Can the Federal Reserve's rate cut turn the situation around?

Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% later this month, an event that may help shape a bullish outlook. Rate cuts are generally favorable for risk assets and may alleviate risk aversion.

However, the uncertainty brought about by Trump's tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and the current lack of new narratives for altcoins may negate the positive effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

XRP Price Prediction Scenario Analysis

Baseline scenario (probability 60%) - Continued fall:

1. Test the support range at 2.70-2.64 US dollars.

2. Profit-taking pressure continues.

3. Hedging sentiment remains high.

4. Need to wait for clear bottom signals

Optimistic scenario (probability 25%) - support rebound:

1、2.70 USD support held

2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut boosts risk appetite.

3. Recover the 2.85-2.91 USD resistance

4. Challenge the psychological barrier of 3.00 USD

Bearish Scenario (Probability 15%) - Deep Adjustment:

1. Break below the 200-day moving average of 2.64 US dollars

2. Chain selling triggers panic

3. Test the $2.00-$2.20 range

4. Long-term downtrend established

Meanwhile, traders' attention has shifted to the technical aspects, as they are assessing whether XRP can hold its short-term support level of $2.70 and resume its bullish trend, while also looking to break through the psychological resistance level of $3.00.

As retail demand weakens and selling pressure increases, the risk of a prolonged decline rises. Investors should closely monitor the test results of the $2.70 support, which will determine whether XRP is in a short-term pullback or a trend reversal.