Crowds + Money: Survey forecasts cannot win

Betting markets turn collective hunches into clear forecasts - that's how they outperform 'experts'
The wisdom of the crowd: it's not magic - it's mathematics. In 1907, 800 fair visitors guessed the weight of the bull; their average (1.197 pounds) differed by 1 pound from the actual 1,198 pounds. Various guesses eliminate biases, approaching the truth. Surveys reflect opinions; markets aggregate actions.
The financial skin in the game: Money sharpens the signal. Bettors don't just express an opinion - they put money, aligning incentives accurately. Studies (such as the Iowa Electronic Markets) show that markets outperform polls in election forecasts by 1.5-2 times - people think harder when their wallets are at stake.
🫴 Real-time adjustment: markets instantly change with new information - think of Joe Namath's guarantee in Super Bowl III, which changed the odds in favor of the Jets, who won. Surveys lag behind, stuck in static snapshots.
Probability, not hype: Prices (, for example, 64 cents = 64% chance) are limited to $1, avoiding bubbles, unlike stocks. This limits speculation, making forecasts more realistic.
🫰 Why it matters: Crowds turn chaos into clarity; money turns guesses into precision. This is the weather for everything - elections, sports, politics. Ignore this, and you bet against collective intelligence.
Crowds simply do not guess - they invest. That's why markets not only predict the future; they define it.
Surveys? They always catch up
Note: this morning I was asked if I remain invested in $Poly, and the short answer is yes, for all the reasons listed above - dyor