ETF Daily Report: A-shares today show a restorative rebound driven by a rally in the external markets.

Today’s A-share market is choppy but rebounds. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50%. Total trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately CNY 2.10 trillion, down compared with the previous trading day. Individual stocks saw more gainers than decliners, with more than 5,100 stocks rising across the entire market. At the sector level, precious metals, power, and pharmaceuticals led the gains; oil and natural gas, coal, and other sectors posted notable declines.

（Source: Caixin Global）

（Source: Wind）

Late on March 23, overseas markets got pulled into fluctuations over whether “the U.S. and Iran actually had talks,” with both sides sticking to their own accounts, but overall they maintained an upward trend.

• Local time on the 23rd, U.S. President Trump posted on the social media platform “Truth Social,” saying that the U.S. and Iran had had very good and productive dialogue over the past two days. Trump said he had instructed a pause of all military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
• Iran’s side has repeatedly denied this. Iranian parliamentary speaker Qalibaf posted that no negotiations had been held with the U.S., and that “fake news” was being used to manipulate the oil market. In addition, in a post on social media, Commander Moussavi of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Air and Space Force said that the current fighting would continue until national and ethnic goals are achieved. Moussavi said that the enemy’s “concessions” are the result of the public supporting combat forces in the streets. The U.S. president’s “contradictory actions” will not cause any negligence on the front lines.

As for whether they actually talked or not, it’s impossible to know, but today’s A-shares also showed a restorative rebound, driven by improving conditions in the broader market.

Looking ahead, geopolitical risk remains ongoing, and the risk of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Although there may be short-term technical repairs, investors remain cautious about the rebound’s strength and duration. If geopolitical tensions ease or if there are relatively newer and sustainable industrial catalysts, the market may be able to restart an offensive posture. Before that, investors are advised to maintain a prudent strategy.

In terms of positioning, with market risk appetite falling and a heightened risk-hedging sentiment, in the short term it may be appropriate to give some attention to related areas that benefit from the oil-price benchmark moving higher. Investors may also consider broad-based products that package industry leaders in one go, such as the CSI A500 ETF (159338).

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Today, the power sector performed relatively well. Guotai Power Green Energy ETF (159669) surged 3.99%.

First, total electricity consumption across the whole society in January–February 2026 increased year over year by +6.1%, compared with the year-over-year growth rate of electricity consumption in December 2025 of +3.3pct. By sector, in January–February 2026, electricity consumption for primary industry/secondary industry/tertiary industry/residents grew year over year by +7.4%/+6.3%/+8.3%/+2.7%, respectively, compared with the year-over-year growth rate in December 2025 of +0.9/+3.2/+2.9/+5.0pct. The growth rate in electricity consumption has improved, mainly because the base is relatively low, while economic activity has seen marginal recovery. In January–February 2026, the year-over-year growth rates of electricity consumption for China’s charging-and-swap services industry and for the internet data services industry were 55.1%/46.2%. Growth in electricity demand is being continuously boosted by power substitution and AI development.

Meanwhile, Liaoning Province has clearly set the mechanism for nuclear power unit feed-in tariffs in 2026. According to Liaoning’s Development and Reform Commission, in 2026, Liaoning will establish a price-difference settlement mechanism outside the market for nuclear power. The price-difference settlement fees will temporarily be included in system operation costs and shared by all industrial and commercial users. Under the mechanism tariff is 0.3798 yuan per kWh: about 70% of electricity will be settled under the mechanism tariff, with the rest settled at market electricity prices. Liaoning’s introduction of the nuclear power mechanism feed-in tariff policy provides significant and stable assurance for revenue from nuclear power projects within the province, and is expected to promote nuclear power units to enter the market in a stable manner. It is also expected that other coastal nuclear power provinces will follow suit in sequence. With policy guidance aimed at stabilizing returns on power generation assets, this trend may spread to more regions and types of power sources.

In addition, “computing-power and power collaboration” was written into the government work report for the first time, and green power operations are the core implementation carrier, which is expected to fully benefit. On the news front, on March 23, the National Data Administration stated that the next step will be to work closely with relevant departments to push forward the computing-power and power collaboration project efforts to ensure that the share of green power applications in newly built computing capacity facilities at hub nodes reaches 80% or more, giving full play to green power’s support role to the maximum extent. Green power operations are the core implementation carrier for computing-power and power collaboration. Green power operators are accelerating the transition toward integrated “green power + computing power” operations, upgrading from traditional electricity supply providers to comprehensive computing power service providers. Direct green power supply can both significantly reduce electricity costs for computing-power data centers and meet the policy requirement that green power makes up 80% of the mix. It opens up new earnings growth points for operators and becomes a key realization form for computing-power and power collaboration.

Furthermore, amid geopolitical conflicts, rising oil prices have triggered inflation concerns, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been reversed. Risk-hedging sentiment has driven funds toward sectors tied to high dividend payouts. China’s power sector reforms continue to deepen: with the capacity tariff for thermal power units in 2026 rising, the stability of profitability is expected to further improve. At the same time, the improvement in free cash flow of thermal power is prominent, with broad room to increase dividend payout ratios. With hydropower, in a low-interest-rate environment, hydropower dividend yield stocks tend to have relatively high appeal.

Power assets have the characteristics of being heavy-asset, with a low rate of obsolescence. At the same time, emerging development directions such as computing-power and power collaboration + green fuels are expected to further boost overall electricity demand. Interested investors can pay attention to Guotai’s Green Power ETF (159669), focusing on the clean energy power generation field and including operators in thermal power, hydropower, wind power, solar power, and nuclear power.

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Today, the pharmaceutical sector also performed well. Guotai’s CSI STAR Innovative Drugs ETF (589720) jumped 4.68%, and Guotai’s Hang Seng Biotech ETF (520930) rose 4.18%.

The 2026 government work report clearly states that biopharmaceuticals will be listed as an “emerging pillar industry.” In introducing the government’s work tasks for this year in the government work report, Premier Li Qiang said that stronger efforts will be made to protect and improve people’s livelihoods, and that strengthening basic public health and medical services is one of the overall requirements. In addition, among the work tasks proposed to accelerate the cultivation and growth of new drivers, biopharmaceuticals are also included as one of the emerging industries and future industries to be developed and expanded.

The clinical R&D progress for innovative drugs continues to advance steadily. Recently, domestically developed innovative drugs have disclosed excellent clinical data at multiple academic conferences. Investors are advised to focus on major academic conferences such as ASCO in the second quarter. Since the first quarter of 2026, the trend of domestically developed innovative drugs going overseas has continued. Through multi-project cooperation agreements achieved based on core technology platforms, it fully demonstrates that China’s innovative drug R&D capability is increasingly being recognized by multinational pharmaceutical companies. Efficiency and cost advantages are becoming even more apparent.

In 2025, performance in the CXO industry showed a differentiated pattern. Most CDMO companies displayed strong profitability growth, while some clinical CRO companies faced demand fluctuations and cost pressure, resulting in performance under pressure. From the perspective of orders, the order performance of the 2025 CXO industry has shown positive signals, indicating that after the rebound in global biopharmaceutical investment and financing activity, CXO industry demand and business conditions have improved.

In addition, amid the AI and big-technology wave, pharmaceuticals are expected to unlock new growth logic. Brain-computer interfaces and AI medical care are also developing rapidly. The pharmaceutical sector’s “chip” position is relatively clean, and potential selling pressure is relatively reduced, providing a higher safety buffer and a favorable allocation window for a possible bottoming-out rebound. With major industry catalysts ahead—such as the ASCO conference—pharmaceutical investors may consider gradually building positions on dips in Guotai’s Hang Seng Biotech ETF (520930) and Guotai’s CSI STAR Innovative Drugs ETF (589720).

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Special contributor: Guotai Fund

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