Morgan Stanley: Hormuz impact depletes oil buffer stocks, maintaining high oil price expectations

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-02T00:54:06+00:00

Morgan Stanley analysts team pointed out that oil market inventories are continuously depleting, with crude oil and natural gas production significantly halted. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to last until the end of April. Brent oil prices are forecasted to remain at $110 and $100.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-02 00:54:06

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An analyst team at Morgan Stanley led by Martijn Rats published a report saying that the oil market had “ample buffer inventories before the shock arrived, but they are now being steadily depleted.” The firm estimates that roughly 10.2 million barrels per day of crude oil production, 1.2 million barrels per day of natural gas liquids production, and 2.0 million barrels per day of Middle East refining capacity are currently shut down. The firm expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain in a de facto state of closure until the end of April. Morgan Stanley kept its forecast for Brent crude oil prices unchanged, expecting an average in the second quarter of $110 per barrel and $100 per barrel in the third quarter. (China Finance Network)

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