Analyst: Middle East conflict pushes up coal prices, but prices will quickly fall back once the situation eases.

Due to the decline in natural gas supply caused by the conflict in Iran, some natural gas users have switched to using coal, driving coal prices higher. But after the conflict ends, whether coal prices can sustain their strength remains uncertain. Morgans noted that before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the benchmark thermal coal price exported from Australia’s Newcastle Port was $118 per ton; since then, it has risen to $138 per ton. Analyst Chris Creech said: “During the previous 12-day round of conflict in June 2025, the period when the conflict lasted for 12 days, crude oil prices fell back quickly after the conflict ended to their pre-conflict levels. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the short term and Qatar restores LNG production, coal prices are also expected to show a similar rapid pullback.” Morgans expects that in the second half of fiscal year 2026, coal prices will be $115 per ton, with its long-term assumption being maintained at $120 per ton starting in fiscal year 2027.