Global markets are watching! At 9 o'clock, "Full U.S. Speech" — what will Trump say?

9:00 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday (9:00 AM on Thursday Beijing time), Trump will deliver a nationwide televised address to the whole country regarding the war with Iran. This is Trump’s first prime-time national address since the U.S.-Israel joint launch of military operations against Iran more than a month ago, and global energy and financial markets are holding their breath.

According to reports citing six people familiar with the matter, Trump is expected to claim in the speech that all military objectives have been achieved, and to say that the war will be wrapped up within the next two to three weeks.

At the same time, he will also address the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to date, and will point the finger at NATO allies, urging European countries to handle the issue themselves. Oil prices have broken above $100 per barrel due to the strait blockade, and global energy supply chains continue to face pressure.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump has instructed Vice President Vance to privately convey a message to Iran: as long as “specific demands” such as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are met, he is open to a ceasefire. Vance conveyed “hardline” messages, saying Trump is “impatient,” and warning that if Iran fails to reach an agreement, it will face mounting strike pressure on its infrastructure.

Announcing “victory”: countdown to the war’s wrap-up

Citing six people familiar with the preparations for the speech, reports say the core tone of Trump’s address this time is to declare victory and explain how the next steps will be carried out.

Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon summarized it as: “‘I came, I saw, I conquered’—we’ll keep conquering for a few more weeks—then maybe a ceasefire.”

White House officials said Trump will tell the American public that the U.S. in this conflict is reaching or even exceeding all established benchmarks. On Tuesday, Trump repeatedly previewed this message and warned that the Iranian regime could still face “targeted strikes” by the U.S. in the future.

The timing of this speech is quite delicate—about two weeks remain from the four-to-six-week military action timeline Trump has repeatedly mentioned. Meanwhile, an additional 2,500 U.S. Marine Corps personnel are moving to the Middle East, showing that military deployments have not stopped.

Hormuz dilemma: ceasefire talks stuck in a stalemate

The Strait of Hormuz issue is the key sticking point in this speech that cannot be avoided. In a social media post early on Wednesday, Trump said that the “new regime president” of Iran has requested a ceasefire from the United States, but that the U.S. side’s conditions are: “only when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and completely unobstructed will we consider it.”

Iran promptly rebuffed the stance with a hardline response. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson dismissed the ceasefire request as “baseless,” and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran’s “absolute firm control” and that it will not open to the “enemy.” Citing content circulated from Iran’s office of the Supreme Leader, Xinhua reported that Iran reaffirmed it will blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a countermeasure.

The Strait of Hormuz is the only shipping route from the Persian Gulf to the outside world. More than one-fourth of the world’s seaborne oil and about one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas are transported through this strait. The blockade has directly driven major fluctuations in global energy prices and triggered widespread economic turmoil.

Blasting NATO: European allies become scapegoats

On the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has made his target clear: European allies. On Tuesday, he publicly urged European allies to “have some courage,” and to “go get your own oil.” He then further escalated his wording. In an interview with the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph, he called NATO a “paper tiger” and said he is reconsidering the United States’ core role in the transatlantic alliance—“well beyond the scope of just reconsidering.”

At an Easter luncheon on Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. has “some very good allies” and “some very bad NATO allies,” and specifically criticized French President Emmanuel Macron for refusing to provide naval support for this conflict. He also said, “If a real big war actually happens, NATO won’t be there.”

According to media reports, a senior White House official said Trump’s anger is “very real,” especially since European countries such as Italy and the UK have banned U.S. troops involved in the Iran war from using their bases and airspace. This week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rejected a U.S. request for aircraft to land at the military base in Sicily, saying the move “fully complies with existing international agreements.”

In response, a senior EU official said, “No one believes the narrative he’s trying to sell on the Iran issue—‘I told you Europe wouldn’t help us.’”

Markets watching: can the speech calm unease

The political backdrop to this speech is also not something that can be ignored. According to the media, Trump’s approval rating has continued to slide, the Iran war is generally unpopular within the U.S., and high oil prices along with turmoil in energy markets have made Wall Street uneasy.

Insiders say this speech is a major test for Trump: “This isn’t his natural environment; you can’t confront—what you need is something reassuring,” while also “needing to be very direct, because he is not only communicating with the American public, but also sending signals to the people of Iran, regional allies, and European allies.”

So far, more than 20 countries have pledged to join a joint effort to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends. But with there being no substantive progress yet on the ceasefire agreement and the strait blockade still not lifted, investors will wait to see whether Trump’s speech can truly stabilize market expectations.

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