Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous

GateUser-9ad11037 · 2026-04-02T00:24:48+00:00

The ongoing Gulf war has significantly impacted global oil and gas supply, as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts roughly 20% of production. This disruption has driven up Brent crude prices by 45% and European gas prices by 65%.

GateUser-9ad11037

2026-04-02 00:24:48

Abstract generation in progress

Editor’s note (March 23rd): This piece has been updated to reflect Mr Trump’s decision to delay his threatened strikes against Iranian infrastructure.

The third Gulf war will soon be in its fifth week. Every day that Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut, around a fifth of the world’s output of oil and liquefied natural gas (lng) remains stranded. And every day, traders update how much supply is lost for the year. As their estimates rise, so do energy prices. Brent crude, at $105 a barrel, is 45% dearer than before hostilities began. Gas prices in Europe are up by 65%.

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