Trump will deliver a nationwide speech at 9:00 this morning: Iran conflict "reaches or exceeds the threshold," with a two to three-week timeline to be reconfirmed.

BlockBeats message: On April 2, the White House announced that President Trump will deliver a nationwide address at 9:00 PM Eastern Time on April 1 (9:00 AM Beijing Time on April 2) regarding “important updates” on Iran’s military action (Operation Epic Fury). White House officials leaked in advance that the U.S. military operation has already “reached or exceeded the benchmark,” and will reiterate the timeline to conclude the related operations within two to three weeks.

Against the backdrop of the speech, the market showed a positive reaction: stock indexes rebounded and oil prices fell. Mainstream narratives have framed the address as an important signal that risk has begun to materialize. However, the White House also stressed that allies need to “do more and pay more.” The messaging has shifted from “the U.S. can handle it” to urging allies to assume responsibility, leading to speculation outside that this may be a warm-up for external negotiations rather than a simple declaration of a final endgame. Trump has also recently criticized some NATO allies for not participating in the operation, and hinted that the U.S. might reassess its role in NATO.

Mainstream views regard the speech as an anchor to alleviate uncertainty, but what the market is truly concerned about is a verifiable, executable, and sustainable exit path. Political narratives can be updated minute by minute, but real-world security assurances, restoration of shipping, supply-chain continuity, and damage-and-loss assessments must be verified on a weekly or even monthly basis.

If the speech continues to emphasize a “progress bar,” a coexisting situation may emerge in the short term in which risk assets are repriced due to an “improved tone,” while commodities and inflation are priced due to “supply disruptions still persisting.” This could cause asset correlations to swing repeatedly in the short term. Investors need to be wary of a chain reaction caused by a gap between expectations and reality. The speech is expected to focus on strategic objectives already achieved by U.S. forces (such as weakening Iran’s navy, deterring threats from regional proxies, and ensuring Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons), and may also involve key issues such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

All major U.S. television networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox News, CNN, etc.) will broadcast the speech live. The White House website and its YouTube channel will also provide real-time coverage. This speech is Trump’s first official nationwide address regarding the Iran conflict, and is expected to last 30–60 minutes. The content will directly affect market judgments about the pathway to ending the conflict.