"Weeks rather than months"? Rubio claims to be ahead of schedule, but the attacks continue, and the strait remains locked.

Hūtōng Caijing App News—U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said last Friday (March 27), after meeting with the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) in France, that the United States’ military action against Iran is moving forward as planned, even ahead of schedule, and is expected to end within weeks rather than months.

Rubio emphasized that Washington does not need to use ground forces to achieve all its objectives, but he also admitted that some ground forces are being deployed to the Middle East to give the president the maximum flexibility and room for adjustments in responding to various unexpected situations. He also noted that even after the conflict ends, Iran may still try to impose shipping transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, and he called on European and Asian countries to contribute to ensuring the strait remains freely navigable.

On Monday (March 30), during the Asian trading session, U.S. crude oil prices fluctuated higher and were trading around $102.90 per barrel. Compared with the settlement price from the previous trading day, the intraday gain was about 3.2%.

U.S. Ground Force Deployment

The United States has sent two contingents made up of several thousand Marines to the Middle East. The first contingent is expected to arrive at the end of March by boarding a large amphibious assault ship. The Pentagon also plans to deploy thousands of elite paratroopers from the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division.

These deployments have raised concerns that the conflict, which began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched attacks that initially killed Iran’s top leader and other senior officials, may evolve into a prolonged ground war.

Iran’s nuclear facilities and industrial targets hit again

Iranian media reported late Friday that Iran’s decommissioned heavy-water nuclear research reactor and a yellowcake uranium production plant were struck. Both attacks did not cause radiation leaks or dangerous conditions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it has received an Iran report, that radiation levels outside the facilities have not increased, and that it will carry out verification.

Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi said on the X platform that, in coordination with Israel and the United States, they also attacked two steel plants and a power plant. He criticized the attack as contradicting the U.S. president’s approach of extending the deadline for diplomatic efforts, and said Iran would make Israel pay a heavy price for its crimes.

Assessment of Iran’s remaining missile and drone capabilities

According to five people familiar with U.S. intelligence, although the United States is working to weaken Iran’s long-range strike capabilities, it has currently only confirmed that about one-third of Iran’s missile stockpile has been destroyed. Another roughly one-third of missiles may have been damaged or buried in underground tunnels, and some might be recoverable after fighting stops.

Four people familiar with U.S. intelligence said the assessment of Iran’s drone capabilities is similar: about one-third have been destroyed. The Gulf Arab states have called for any agreement not only to end the war, but also to permanently restrict Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, and to ensure that global energy supplies are no longer weaponized.

U.S. 15-point proposal and Iran’s response stance

This week, the United States delivered a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan. The scope includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz—globally the most important energy trade corridor.

A senior Iranian official said that after industrial and nuclear infrastructure were attacked last Friday, Tehran has not yet decided whether to respond.

High oil prices and impact on global markets

Global oil prices remain high and fluctuate. The conflict has seriously disrupted global energy and other commodity trade, intensifying concerns about rising prices and economic downturn.

Trump appears eager to end this unpopular war. This week, he has repeatedly emphasized that there are “productive” diplomatic negotiations underway, but Iran has repeatedly denied that any such talks have been launched.

Editor’s summary

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio clearly stated that the Iran war will end within weeks and that targets can be achieved without ground forces, but the actual deployment of thousands of Marines and paratroopers shows the United States still retains flexibility to respond.

Iran’s nuclear facilities and industrial targets have continued to be hit. Its remaining missile capability still stands at roughly two-thirds, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to surge sharply. The situation ahead will depend on Iran’s response to the 15-point proposal and the actual progress of diplomatic talks. The global energy market and economic stability still face significant uncertainty.

As of 10:29 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil continuous trading price is currently $102.90 per barrel.

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责任编辑：郭建