The expectation of a ceasefire ignited FOMO sentiment, with U.S. stocks rising for two consecutive days, storage stocks surging, gold prices climbing for four consecutive days, and oil prices fluctuating around $100.

Investors are betting that the end of the U.S.-Iran conflict is nearing; U.S. stocks rose for the second consecutive trading day. Technology stocks helped power the Nasdaq up more than 1%, while energy stocks weighed and fell. On Wednesday, European equities broadly rose, and emerging-market stocks posted their biggest gain since 2022.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell first then rose, the U.S. dollar kept weakening, and Brent crude was choppy around the $100 mark.

(Intraday performance comparison: U.S. stocks, U.S. oil, and U.S. Treasury yields)

On Wednesday, April 1—the 33rd day of the military strikes launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran—the situation has been advancing in parallel between intense clashes and diplomatic probing.

Wall Street Insights noted that, according to CCTV, U.S. President Trump posted on social media on Wednesday claiming that Iran’s “new regime president” had requested a ceasefire from the United States, but the U.S. side would “consider it only when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and fully unobstructed; otherwise, it will continue to strike Iran.” Crude oil fell on the news, and U.S. stocks opened higher.

Iran responded that the strait would not be opened to the enemy and that the ceasefire request was baseless. Oil prices rebounded quickly, and the stock market came under pressure at the same time.

(WTI crude futures plunged, then rebounded and traded choppily)

Wall Street Insights mentioned that during the trading day in the U.S. market, White House officials said Trump would reiterate the timeline to end the war within two to three weeks in his nationwide address that night at 9:00 p.m. (9:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 2). Market sentiment was again steadied.

After the U.S. market’s midday session, according to CCTV citing U.S. media reports, the U.S. Department of Defense is increasing the number of A-10 attack aircraft to be deployed in the Middle East by one倍 to strengthen its capability to strike Iran and its proxy forces.

As risk-averse sentiment warmed up in the short term, gains on the broad U.S. market narrowed into the close. Previously, the S&P 500 index had risen as much as 1.2%; its advance narrowed to 0.72%. The Nasdaq finished up 1.16% and had been up as much as 1.8% intraday.

(Intraday performance comparison: U.S. benchmark stock indices)

Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager Thomas Martin said:

Trump’s statements themselves keep changing. The market is trying to interpret what his words really mean, and the market’s wish is positive—it wants the war to end.

Michael Bailey, research director at wealth management firm FBB Capital Partners, said:

The strong rebound over the past two days may be because savvy investors are betting on easing in the Middle East situation, or it may reflect a sense of desperation in the market caused by fear of missing out on the opportunity for a recovery. However, in a higher-level market, any news that is mixed or negative could cause the market to pull back.

Despite the “rally then fade” pattern showing up multiple times during the day, the technology sector has remained the core driver behind this rebound. Google is up more than 3%, and the overall tech mega-cap seven recorded their best two days in nearly a year.

(The tech “Magnificent Seven” outperformed the rest of the 493 S&P constituents for two straight days)

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose for the second consecutive trading day. The storage-chip sector surged 8.2% on the day, marking the second-largest single-day gain in history.

(Storage-chip sector jumps sharply)

In contrast, the energy sector faced pressure all day and at one point was down nearly 5%, the lowest level in more than a week; airline stocks rose along with the pullback in oil prices.

(U.S. sector performance comparison as of Wednesday)

Notably, the U.S. economic data released that day was overall on the strong side. According to Wall Street Insights, the “mini nonfarm” ADP employment report beat expectations by a wide margin, while the day’s February retail sales month-over-month increase hit the largest in eight months. The U.S. March ISM Manufacturing Index was 52.7, a three-year high.

However, the ISM manufacturing prices paid subcomponents surged significantly, showing that inflation pressure is rising—and this is still data from before the war situation fully hit energy costs.

As a result, the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts this year were slightly pared back. Major U.S. Treasury yields fell by as much as 5 basis points at one point, then rebounded in a “V” shape and finished flat.

(Changes in Fed rate expectations)

On Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to rebound and closed higher. The airline industry ETF closed up 2.6%, leading U.S. industry ETFs together with the semiconductor ETF. The energy industry ETF fell more than 3.7%. Micron Technology jumped 8.88%, while Western Digital surged 10%. Eli Lilly rose 3.78%; the FDA approved Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 weight-loss drug.

U.S. benchmark stock indices:

• The S&P 500 index closed up 46.80 points, up 0.72%, at 6575.32.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 224.23 points, up 0.48%, at 46565.74.

• The Nasdaq closed up 250.319 points, up 1.16%, at 21840.947. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 279.799 points, up 1.18%, at 24019.988.

• The Russell 2000 index closed up 0.64%, at 2512.368.

• The VIX volatility index fell 2.85%, closing at 24.53.

U.S. sector ETFs:

• The Global X Airlines ETF closed up 2.60%, the Semiconductor ETF rose 2.24%, the Global Technology Stocks index ETF and the Technology Sector ETF were up at least 1.51%, the Regional Banks ETF rose 1.07%, and the Energy Sector ETF fell 3.74%.

(April 1: U.S. industry sector ETFs performance)

Tech mega-caps:

• The U.S. tech mega-cap seven (Magnificent 7) index fell 0.35%, to 176.37.

• Alphabet A rose 3.42%, Tesla rose 2.56%, Meta rose 1.24%, Amazon rose 1.10%, Nvidia rose 0.77%, Apple rose 0.73%, Microsoft fell 0.22%.

Chip stocks:

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.82%, to 7802.311.

• TSMC ADR rose 1.04%, and AMD rose 3.33%.

• Micron Technology jumped 8.88%, while Western Digital surged 10%.

Chinese concept stocks:

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.31%, at 6774.04.

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Zai Ding Yi Medicine rose 8.13%, EHang Intelligent rose 4.12%, Kingsoft Cloud rose 4.04%, 万国数据 and Ideal were up up to 3.4%, NIO, Huazhu, Century Interconnected, and XPeng were up up to 2.82%, and Bilibili rose 1.46%.

Other individual stocks:

• Circle fell 4.95%.

• Eli Lilly rose 3.78%; the FDA approved Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 weight-loss drug.

European blue-chip indices closed up more than 2.9%. RHM rose about 9.5%. ASML rose 6.1%. Energy stocks like TotalEnergies and Eni fell more than 4%. Germany’s stock market closed up more than 2.7%, and Italy’s bank sector rose more than 4.5%.

Pan-European indices:

• The STOXX 600 index closed up 2.50%, at 597.69. After gapping higher at the open, it continued to trade at high levels. Over the last three trading days, it has rebounded 3.89%, stayed above the 200-day moving average for three straight days, broke above the 100-day moving average, and kept pressing toward the 50-day moving average.

• The STOXX 50 index in the eurozone closed up 2.93%, at 5732.71, rebounding 4.12% over the past three days.

National indices:

• Germany’s DAX 30 closed up 2.73%, at 23298.89. Over the last three trading days, it rebounded 4.48%. The 50-day moving average is currently breaking below the 100-day moving average.

• France’s CAC 40 closed up 2.10%, at 7981.27.

• The UK’s FTSE 100 closed up 1.85%, at 10364.79.

  (April 1: performance of major European and U.S. stock indices)

Sectors and individual stocks:

• Among eurozone blue chips, Germany’s Rheinmetall (RHM) rose 9.48%, Siemens Energy rose 6.99%, ASML Holding rose 6.11%, Infineon rose 5.66%, and UniCredit Bank rose 5.64%.

• Among all constituents of the STOXX 600 index, Pan-African Resources (PAF.LN) rose 10.19%, Babcock International Group rose 9.50%, the defense stock RHM was the third-best performer, and Renk Group rose 8.18% and Thyssenkrupp rose 8.10%, ranking as the seventh-largest gainer.

U.S. ADP employment beat expectations; ISM manufacturing price subcomponents signaled rising inflation pressure. U.S. Treasury yields rebounded in a “V” shape and finished flat; the 2-year yield was up 0.4 basis points. U.K. 2-year gilt yields fell by more than 11 basis points and traded narrowly choppily all day after gapping lower at the open. German bond prices opened higher then fell.

U.S. Treasuries:

• At the New York close, the 10-year Treasury benchmark yield finished flat on a V-shaped move, at 4.317%.

• The 2-year Treasury yield was up 0.19 basis points, at 3.795%.

  (U.S. Treasury yields by major maturities)

European sovereign bonds:

• At the Europe close, Germany’s 10-year sovereign bond yield fell 1.8 basis points to 2.986%. Intraday it traded in the 2.931%-3.004% range. After gapping lower at the open, it continued to regain losses.

• At the Europe close, the U.K.’s 10-year sovereign bond yield fell 8.1 basis points to 4.835%. The 2-year gilt yield fell 11.3 basis points to 4.295%.

• Italy and Greece’s 10-year sovereign bond yields fell by more than 6 basis points.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell for the second consecutive day. Bitcoin briefly surged above $69,000 during the day, but then gave back the gain in sync as the intraday stock-market upside momentum weakened.

U.S. dollar:

• At the New York close, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.33% to 99.634. The intraday trading range was 99.883-99.298.

• The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.27% to 1212.17, with an intraday range of 1215.61-1209.41.

  (Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index)

Non-U.S. currencies:

• At the New York close, the euro rose 0.30% against the dollar, the pound rose 0.60% against the dollar, and the dollar fell 0.63% against the Swiss franc.

• Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose 0.42% against the dollar, while the New Zealand dollar was flat against the dollar.

Japanese yen:

• At the New York close, the dollar rose 0.11% against the Japanese yen to 158.89 yen, with an intraday trading range of 158.28-159.01 yen.

• The euro rose 0.38% against the yen, and the pound rose 0.65% against the yen.

Offshore renminbi:

• At the New York close, USD/CNH was 6.8774, up 118 points from the New York close on Tuesday. The overall intraday trading range was 6.8909-6.8710.

Cryptocurrencies:

• At the New York close, Bitcoin briefly broke above $69,000 during the day, then fell back to flat as the stock market weakened, at $68,000.

(Bitcoin price)

• The spot price of Ethereum rose 1.7% to $2,140.

Middle East Abu Dhabi Murban crude futures fell 3.64% to $102.92 per barrel.

Crude oil:

• WTI May crude futures closed down $1.26, down more than 1.24%, at $100.12 per barrel.

(WTI crude futures)

• Brent June crude futures closed down $2.81, down more than 2.70%, at $101.16 per barrel.

• Middle East Abu Dhabi Murban crude futures fell 3.64% to $102.92 per barrel.

Natural gas:

• NYMEX May natural gas futures closed at $2.8190 per million British thermal units.

Gold accelerates its rebound, nearing the $4,800 area. Spot silver and nickel and copper are choppy with slight declines.

Gold:

• At the New York close, spot gold rose 1.91% to $4,757.17 per ounce, continuing to climb overall, trading in the $4,662.36-$4,793.11 range.

(Spot gold price)

• COMEX gold futures rose 2.27% to $4,784.90 per ounce, rising steadily from $4,690 to $4,821.

Silver:

• At the New York close, spot silver fell 0.09% to $75.0995 per ounce.

• COMEX silver futures rose 0.54% to $75.320 per ounce.

Other metals:

• At the New York close, COMEX copper futures fell 0.49% to $5.6230 per pound.

• Spot platinum rose 0.58%, while spot palladium was flat.

• LME copper futures closed up $99 to $12,434 per ton. LME tin futures closed up $615 to $47,362 per ton. LME nickel futures closed up $99 to $17,209 per ton. LME aluminum futures closed up $64 to $3,532 per ton.

Risk Disclaimer and Exemption Clauses

        The market involves risk; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, and it does not consider any specific investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article align with their particular circumstances. If you invest based on this, you bear the responsibility.