Middle East ceasefire expectations heat up! U.S. intelligence agencies suddenly reveal big news!

Middle East ceasefire expectations are heating up as global stock markets launch a major rally.

Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose together, with the Nasdaq surging more than 1%. Storage-chip concept stocks surged across the board. European stock markets also rose across the board, with the STOXX 50 index in Europe jumping more than 3%, and the Germany DAX30 index and France CAC40 index both rising more than 2%.

Market analysts said that U.S. President Trump’s remarks hinted that the Middle East conflict may be nearing the end, boosting investors’ risk appetite. Investors are betting that U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran may soon come to an end. In addition, a sharp drop in international oil prices has also eased concerns in the market that inflation could return.

At present, the market is highly focused on the latest developments in the Iran-U.S. talks. According to CCTV News, on April 1 local time, U.S. officials said that multiple U.S. intelligence agencies recently assessed that the Iranian government currently has no intention of participating in substantive negotiations aimed at ending the Iran-U.S. war. Iranian officials, meanwhile, said that Iran requires that ceasefire talks with the United States must be based on ensuring the war ends permanently.

Broad-based rally

On April 1, U.S. Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and kept rising. By the close, the Dow Jones rose 0.48%, the Nasdaq rose 1.16%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.72%.

Large tech stocks broadly rose, with Google A up more than 3%, Tesla up more than 2%, and Meta, Amazon, TSMC ADR, and Broadcom up more than 1%, while Nvidia and Apple closed slightly higher.

U.S. chip stocks surged across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.82%, including Intel up more than 8%. Earlier, the company agreed to repurchase $14.2 billion to buy back the stake in its Irish chip fabrication plants held by Apollo Global Management, regaining full control of one of its key manufacturing assets. Storage-chip concept stocks also soared collectively: Western Digital jumped more than 10%, SanDisk rose more than 9%, and Micron Technology and Seagate Technology rose more than 8%.

U.S. aluminum stocks also surged collectively. Alcoa and Century Aluminum both rose more than 8%. Latest market news said that after Tavira (Al Taweelah) smelter—owned by United Arab Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the largest aluminum producer in the Middle East—was hit by Iranian missiles and drones over the weekend, it was forced to stop operations due to a “runaway shutdown” of its smelting equipment.

European stocks also finished higher across the board. Europe’s STOXX 50 index, Italy’s FTSE MIB index, and Spain’s IBEX 35 index all rose more than 3%, Germany’s DAX30 index and France’s CAC40 index rose more than 2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 index gained nearly 2%.

That day, Trump said that U.S. military actions prevented Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and the United States would withdraw from Iran soon, but if needed, it could carry out another “precision strike” again.

He will also deliver remarks at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time on April 1 (9:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 2) to brief the latest developments in the Iran war.

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, said: “Trump’s remarks often change. The market is trying to interpret his true intentions. What investors want to hear are positive signals, hoping the war can end.”

Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics, said in a report that although signals of easing conditions have boosted market sentiment, even if the war ends soon, its impact will continue in many aspects.

He added: “What is worth thinking about is, if the war ends quickly, how will the market perform? If sentiment continues to improve, is there still upside room for the market? The answer is almost certainly—yes.”

Uncertainties in the talks

At present, the Iran-U.S. negotiations still have some uncertainties.

On April 2, according to CCTV News, on April 1 local time, U.S. officials said that multiple U.S. intelligence agencies recently assessed that the Iranian government currently has no intention of participating in substantive negotiations aimed at ending the Iran-U.S. war. These officials said that the relevant assessment reports indicate that the Iranian government believes it is in a favorable position in the war, so it does not need to accept the diplomatic demands put forward by the United States.

The officials also said that although Iran is willing to keep communication channels open, it does not trust the United States and does not think that U.S. President Trump is serious about negotiation matters. Over the past year, Trump had ordered attacks on Iran twice, while the two sides were negotiating over Iran’s nuclear program. The above assessment results are consistent with recent statements by Iranian officials, who refuted Trump’s claims that discussions facilitated by other countries are making progress.

Iranian sources said that Iran requires that ceasefire negotiations with the United States must be premised on ensuring the war ends permanently.

The sources also said that the intermediaries contacted Iran on March 31 to exchange views on continuing to advance diplomatic dialogue. However, as of now, the United States and Iran have not yet formally launched ceasefire talks through the intermediaries.

On the same day, according to sources from Iran, Iran’s Supreme Leader’s foreign policy adviser and former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi was targeted in an attack by the United States and Israel that day and was seriously injured, and his wife was killed.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that Iran is prepared to respond to any form of attack, including a ground offensive.

Baghaei said Iran’s top priority is to defend the nation against aggression. Iran’s armed forces and people are prepared for all kinds of scenarios, and will respond to any incoming attacks, making the enemy pay a price.

Baghaei also said that Iran received information from the U.S. via third parties, including Pakistan, but did not hold direct negotiations with the United States. He also pointed out that the demands put forward by the United States are “excessive and unreasonable.”

Iran’s Defense Ministry spokesperson Reza Taleynik said that Iran’s ultimate objectives for its retaliatory actions against the United States and Israel include the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East region and the complete destruction of U.S. military bases in that region.

Taleynik said Iran will ensure that the relevant actions cause “reciprocal damage” to the opponent, ensuring that no new wars take place in Iran and neighboring areas, and maintaining regional sovereignty and security stability. He also said that Iran’s armed forces will continue to coordinate with the region’s “resistance front” until the established goals are achieved.

（Source: China Securities Journal）