President Donald Trump Will Formally Address the Country Tonight to Provide 'Important' Update on the Iran War: 3 Things Investors Should Watch for

President Donald Trump will address the country tonight through a televised speech at 9 p.m. ET to provide “an important update” on the Iran war, which has been the largest factor impacting markets since the conflict began at the very end of February.

While Trump has recently said on numerous occasions that the U.S. will be concluding its involvement in the affair shortly, potentially in a matter of weeks, there is still much that investors don’t know and will be looking for more information.

Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian.

This includes how and when the U.S. will actually exit the conflict, how it will leave things with the Iranian government, and what will happen with the Strait of Hormuz, which heavily impacts oil prices, among other factors.

Here are three things investors should watch for in Trump’s speech tonight.

The devil is always in the details

Trump is very unpredictable, so it’s hard to know exactly what he will speak about tonight. While it will obviously be about the Iran war, the devil is always in the details.

The first thing investors will be looking for information on is what will happen with the Strait of Hormuz. In recent weeks, Trump and members of his administration have hinted at taking control of the narrow waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows daily in normal times.

But even more recently, there have been reports suggesting that Trump may be ready to withdraw from the war without reopening the Strait. As of this writing, crude oil futures remained above $99 per barrel. Any clarity on Trump’s approach to what will happen with the Strait of Hormuz will be a big deal.

The second thing investors should watch for, which has become increasingly unclear, is who Trump and the U.S. are really negotiating with in Iran and what leadership look like in the country after the war.

Many senior Iranian officials have been killed in recent weeks. Trump or U.S. officials have often touted progress toward an agreement, only to be rebuffed by Iran’s state media or certain Iranian officials shortly afterward.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly told the European Council that, “We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met.”

Yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has adopted very different rhetoric, and there appears to be a widening dispute between the two. Any further insight into who has real authority right now could be very telling about how negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are really progressing.

Finally, given Trump’s public comments on social media lately, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the 47th President discuss the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Several countries in NATO have pushed back against the war by essentially refusing to participate or assist the U.S., which has angered Trump, who has said he is contemplating withdrawing from the military alliance.

While likely less impactful on markets in the near term, this could have significant long-term effects if Trump actually follows through on this threat, because it would change how each country approaches their defense strategy, and likely affect various currencies and government bonds.