Will the hottest market trend in nearly three years continue into April?

The Securities Times reporter, Wu Jiaming

“Today, I’m going to handle property transfer procedures for three pairs of clients. Last month, my work team and I often worked overtime. In my view, this year’s real estate market ‘little spring’ performance is the most ‘booming’ one in the past three years.” On April 1, just after the Luohu District Real Estate Registration Center in Shenzhen opened its doors, the Securities Times reporter met Xiao Li, who was helping a client fill out paperwork. Xiao Li said as follows. Xiao Li is a staff member at a large real estate agency in Shenzhen, and she is responsible specifically for handling property transfers and related procedures.

The just-passed March ‘little spring’ in Shenzhen’s real estate market produced a solid set of results. Data statistics from the Leju Jia Research Center show that in March, the total signed sales volume of new and secondary residential units in Shenzhen was 7,898 units, up 117% month over month, reaching the highest level in nearly 11 months. Among them, the combined signed sales volume of pre-sold and existing first-hand homes across the city was 2,827 units, up 118% month over month; signed sales of second-hand homes was 5,071 units, up 117% month over month. Looking at property-viewing and contract-signing data that is closer to the real-time market, the Leju Jia storefronts’ second-hand home viewing volume hit a new high in nearly five years, 17% higher than the peak in October 2024. The second-hand contract signing volume increased 244% month over month and is also at a historical high.

At a newly listed new-home project in Luohu District, the Securities Times reporter met a homebuyer who had just signed a contract. After two intended second-hand homes that she had been viewing consecutively were quickly sold, she also took decisive action and quickly locked in a new home. In her view, the deep price adjustment, combined with the ongoing low-interest-rate environment, is causing the carrying cost of property and its long-term value to be re-evaluated.

While visiting multiple areas in Shenzhen, the Securities Times reporter found that luxury homes and improvement-oriented listings have become hotspots in the new-home market, while lower total-price listings have become the main force driving transactions in the second-hand housing market. Data from the Leju Jia Research Center shows that the share of second-hand home transactions below 3 million yuan increased from 21.8% in March last year to 31.5% in March this year. Xiao Xiaoping, Director of the Shell Research Institute in Shenzhen, pointed out that there are mainly two groups buying lower total-price homes: owner-occupier just-need buyers and prudent small-scale investors.

“Regarding second-hand housing, both the inquiry rate and transaction volume are highest for listings below 3 million yuan.” A senior real estate agency manager from the Futian Meilin subdistrict told the Securities Times reporter, “The hotness of Shenzhen’s second-hand homes still relies on price-driven momentum; using price to boost volume remains the prerequisite for a rebound in second-hand home transactions. The price acceptance level of just-need customers is still not high, and the expectations of both owners and buyers still need to be further boosted.”

Many industry insiders believe that Shenzhen’s real estate market has already moved out of a ‘soft but not dull’ period before the Spring Festival, and the continuity of market heat in April is especially critical. If Shenzhen, or even other core cities, can maintain their level of heat, it will help improve market expectations.

“Since the end of 2025, the strong sales of several luxury home projects in Shenzhen Bay and the recent stabilization of second-hand prices in core areas have sent positive signals to the market, indicating that core areas have completed their price base-building. If this situation can continue, the entire Shenzhen market is expected to complete its price base-building in 2026.” Zou Shaowei, a senior research fellow at the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, pointed out in an interview.

Li Yujia, Chief Research Fellow at the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, said that whether subsequent home prices can maintain a stable stance depends on three things: first, whether the transaction volume of second-hand homes can be sustained—especially after low-priced listings are used up, whether homes in the mid-to-high price range can be activated for trading; second, whether transactions in low-priced second-hand homes can drive swap demand such as selling the old and buying the new, and selling the small to buy the larger—creating a virtuous cycle of consumption; third, whether new homes can achieve comprehensive high-quality performance on the product side, thereby driving customers’ housing demand based on consumption upgrades.