Global Headlines | The three major U.S. stock indices fluctuate unpredictably, with a 99.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged

【U.S. Stock Indexes】

On Wednesday, March 11 (U.S. Eastern Time), the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated, with the S&P 500 down 0.08% to 6775.80 points; the Dow Jones down 0.61% to 47417.27 points; and the Nasdaq up 0.08% to 22716.13 points.

【U.S. Treasuries】

On March 11, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.21%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, was 3.64%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular U.S. stocks, Nvidia rose 0.67%, Apple fell 0.01%, Google Class A rose 0.54%, Google Class C rose 0.49%, Microsoft fell 0.22%, Amazon fell 0.78%, TSMC rose 2.10%, Meta rose 0.12%, Tesla rose 2.15%, AMD rose 0.79%, and Intel rose 2.57%.

【Global Indexes】

【China Indexes】

On March 11, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 0.10%, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.77%, and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.98%.

【China Concept Stocks】

Among popular China concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) fell 0.27%, Alibaba fell 0.42%, PDD fell 1.83%, NetEase fell 2.12%, Baidu fell 0.28%, Trip.com fell 2.03%, Li Auto rose 2.98%, XPeng rose 2.17%, and NIO fell 3.95%.

【FX Commodities】

【Global Headlines】

The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in March is 99.4%

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points by March is 0.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 99.4%. The probability that the Fed will cumulatively cut rates by 25 basis points by April is 11.9%, with the probability of holding steady at 88.1%; the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 0.1%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 33.8%.

Gurman: Apple’s upcoming foldable iPhone will use an iPad-like layout

Tech journalist Gurman wrote that the foldable iPhone Apple plans to launch this fall will update the iOS operating system, enabling an iPad-like interface layout for the first time. Sources familiar with the matter said the product will come with a built-in foldable display with a size roughly equivalent to an iPad mini. In addition, it will have an external screen sized about like the display on a small iPhone. Its internal display will use a widescreen aspect ratio, which differs from the narrow-screen format of foldable phones currently on the market. Sources familiar with the matter said this will be a key selling point. Apple’s design aims to enhance the appeal of watching videos on the device. At the same time, developers will be able to redesign iPhone applications more easily, bringing them closer to the operating experience of iPad software.

Nvidia to invest a total of $26 billion over the next five years, aiming to build the world’s top open-source model

Nvidia will invest a total of $26 billion over the next five years, trying to build the world’s top open-source model.

Apple’s foldable iPhone is expected to be released later this year

Apple’s foldable iPhone is expected to be released later this year.

The U.S. government’s February budget deficit was $308 billion

Local time on March 11, data released by the U.S. Treasury Department showed that the U.S. government budget deficit for February 2026 was $308 billion. (CCTV News)

On Wednesday, the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility totaled $552 million

On Wednesday, the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility totaled $552 million, compared with $278 million in the prior trading day.

Fitch: A cooling labor market and slower wage growth may lead the Fed to cut rates twice in 2026

Fitch: A cooling labor market and slower wage growth may lead the Fed to cut rates twice in 2026.

Intel announces a new Intel Core Ultra 200S+ desktop processor series

Intel announces a new Intel Core Ultra 200S+ desktop processor series.

Microsoft: Launches an intelligent agent end-to-end modernization solution

Microsoft: Launches an intelligent agent end-to-end modernization solution.

Nvidia launches NEMOTRON 3 Super

Nvidia launches NEMOTRON 3 Super, a model providing a 5x throughput improvement for Agentic AI.