Trading activity declines, Wind All A valuation slightly decreases | Sentiment and Valuation, March Issue 4

(Source: One View of Market Trends)

Author: Fang Yi / Li Jian

Key takeaway: Last week (2026/3/23-2026/3/27) trading activity declined, and the valuation of the Wind All A (萬得全A) edged down slightly. Broad-based indices: valuation fell across the board, and the Wind All A valuation decreased slightly. Industry indices: PE valuation fell more than it rose, and PB valuation led in the banks. Sentiment: trading activity fell across the board, turnover rates fell across the board, and trading value fell across the board. ERP: increased month-over-month.

Summary

▶ Index valuations: valuation fell across the board, and the ChiNext Index (创业板指) led the declines. Broad-based indices: valuation declined across the board, and the Wind All A edged down slightly. PE-TTM historical percentile: all indices fell across the board; the Wind All A had the smallest decline, down 0.6 percentage points (pct). PB-LF historical percentile: all indices declined across the board; the SSE 50 Index (上证50指) led the declines, down 9.7 pct. Style indices: valuation fell more than it rose, and the stable style led. PE-TTM historical percentile: all styles fell more than they rose; the stable segment led, up 2.6 pct. PB-LF historical percentile: all styles fell across the board; large-cap stocks led the declines, down 5.1 pct.

▶ Industry valuations: PE valuation fell more than it rose. Industry PE: valuation fell more than it rose; commercial retail led. PE-TTM historical percentile: industry valuations fell more than they rose across the board; commercial retail led, up 5.5 pct. PE-G relative comparison: power equipment and new energy offer better value for money. Industry PB: valuation fell more than it rose; electric power and public utilities led. PB-LF historical percentile: all industries declined more than they rose; electric power and public utilities led, up 4.3 pct. PB-ROE relative comparison: banks offer better value for money.

▶ Sentiment: trading activity declined across the board, turnover rates declined across the board, and trading value declined across the board. Turnover rate: index turnover rates declined across the board; the Shanghai Composite Index (上证指数) had the smallest decline, down 9.3%. Trading value: trading value declined across all indices; the ChiNext Index (创业板指) had the smallest decline, down 0.3%. Margin financing balance: as of 2026/3/26, the weekly average margin financing balance for Sunday was 2.62 trillion yuan, down 1.25% compared with the previous week. Proportion of financing purchases: as of 2026/3/26, the weekly average financing purchase amount as a proportion of the Wind All A’s (全A) trading value for Sunday was 8.90%, down 0.28% month-over-month compared with the previous week’s weekly average data.

▶ ERP: increased slightly month-over-month. Wind All A risk premium was 4.13%, up 0.04 pct compared with 2026/3/20. Note: In this article, valuation changes are compared as of 2026/3/27 versus 2026/3/20; turnover rate and trading value changes are compared between last week (2026/3/23-2026/3/27) averages and the prior week (2026/3/16-2026/3/20) averages; margin financing changes are compared between last week (2026/3/23-2026/3/26) averages and the prior week (2026/3/16-2026/3/20) averages.

▶ Risk warning: Elevated uncertainty in overseas economic conditions. Uncertainty in global geopolitics.

Risk warning

Elevated uncertainty in overseas economic conditions. Uncertainty in the U.S. domestic economy and policies may bring disruptions to global risk assets.

Uncertainty in global geopolitics. Great-power competition has now entered deep water; the direction and intensity of geopolitical conflicts in some regions are difficult to judge accurately, and sudden events may impact the market.

Disclaimer

Caitai Haitong Strategy Team