Long-term Bitcoin investors keep selling off. A brief surge above $90,000 still cannot change the downward trend.

Lianhe Tech December 18 report (Editor Ma Lan) Bitcoin is entering a sustained downtrend, and one important reason is that long-term holders are still continually selling the token.

According to a report from K33 Research, compared with early 2023, the amount of Bitcoin that has been at least two years without flowing into exchanges has decreased by 1.6 million BTC, worth about $140 billion. Only in 2025, nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin has returned to circulation after lying dormant for more than a year.

Meanwhile, the market’s ability to absorb these Bitcoins returning to circulation is gradually weakening. Over the past year, the ETFs that absorbed most of the Bitcoin have shifted to net outflows, and retail traders’ enthusiasm is also at a low point.

Ergonia research head Chris Newhouse said the market is experiencing a slow decline, characterized by continuous spot selling and insufficient buy-side liquidity. This creates a gradual type of sell-off, which is more difficult to reverse than a leverage-driven capitulation-style sell-off.

Long period of consolidation

On Wednesday, the Bitcoin price briefly rose to $90,000, but traders believe this was due to large short positions being closed out; afterward, the Bitcoin price also re-entered a downtrend. As of the time of publication, the Bitcoin price has been trading above $86,000.

K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde said that, unlike previous cycles, this time Bitcoin’s price spike to new highs was not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentive mechanisms, but by ample liquidity brought about by demand for U.S. ETF investments. This allows early holders to take profits at six-figure prices and significantly reduces Bitcoin’s concentration among large investors.

Georgii Verbitskii, founder of crypto investment platform TYMIO, predicts that the Bitcoin price is very likely to consolidate over a long period of time, and he does not rule out a drop to $70,000 or even $60,000.

But Lunde believes that, based on observations of historical on-chain capital flows, as the size of Bitcoins returning to circulation approaches a certain threshold, the selling by long-term holders may be coming to an end.

He said the selling pressure from long-term holders appears to have nearly reached saturation. About 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years. He expects the selling pressure from early investors to decrease by 2026.

(Editor: Wenjing)

Keywords:

                                                            Bitcoin