04.01 Review: Slapped Swollen Thigh

Statement: The following are personal thoughts, not investment advice [Taoguba]
Limit-up situation

Two consecutive daily limit-ups

2nd board advances to 3rd board

3rd board advances to 4th board

5th board advances to 6th board

Limit-up broken

Top twenty by decline

Yesterday’s limit-up on the ChiNext market

Today’s limit-up on the ChiNext market

Up/down situation
Limit-up 65 (excluding ST), down-limit 14

I. Market

(1) About tomorrow

Today, the two leading “dragons” continue to decline again: Hadian Liaoneng and Hadian Energy both saw big drops. The people who bought the deep-water zone yesterday likely still have a bit of profit; the first-board premium in the power sector was directly suppressed into oblivion, which is a bit lower than expected.

The runner-up, Shenjian Co., Ltd., surged and then pulled back mainly because there was no sector support. Many aerospace stocks got hit with selloffs as soon as they went out; let’s see how Shenjian’s order book/holding is after the move. The favorable news for Zhipu also rotated into computing power. In the morning, Auride and Meiliyun were both given leading buys. Follow-on action then passed to tomorrow—let’s see how the follow-through/consolidation looks.

Overseas markets rallied strongly. New themes like China Railway and Anhui Construction were smashed hard after hitting the one-price limit (post-war reconstruction). Changhong Technology (Zhang Xue locomotive) opened strong and then fell back—watch whether there is weak rebound/repair. On the other hand, Tianjin Pharmaceuticals held up at the one-price limit against the pressure, and funds also pulled together with sector participation. There is still a premium tomorrow, but the prior highs—MinoVas continuing to decline—looks a bit awkward.

Lately, follow-on trades are still relatively difficult. When the index rallies, themes are actually harder to play. Hopefully there will be some overall repair tomorrow; otherwise the game will start to get crowded again (“involution”). The rotation by quant funds is also fairly random, so focus on controlling the net long position.

II. Operations

Zhipu’s favorable-news stimulus led to Auride hitting the limit-up. In the morning, it directly compressed volume to秒板 (seconds-to-limit) and I was afraid it would blow up, so I hesitated and it was gone—another day of regretting it and slapping my thigh. Since the index rallied, I don’t know what to buy.

Best wishes

Reviewing is not easy—giving a few free likes or shares is my biggest support