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The bottoming phase is much stronger than expected. Now we're just waiting for a confirmation signal.
1、Index: [Taoguba]
Finally, it was after this afternoon that the gap was filled—this is a good thing. The index achieved a new high for a short-term rebound. We can say that this is indeed a new adjustment cycle, but since it’s the last segment, the index can completely substitute consolidation for the adjustment. In the final analysis, the goal of this segment is to consume time, and to confirm that the weakening of bearish strength is taking place.
Of course, from a structural standpoint, the new high can be viewed as the continuation of the prior rebound cycle, and this continuation can still enable day-to-day trading across the next day. But that’s not the key point. The most important thing is to wait for the formation of structural signals; everything is gradually showing signs of improving. So, during the subsequent bottoming-out phase, everyone can be more optimistic. Based on the current situation, the probability that consolidation replaces adjustment is likely higher. Here, the swings might be tougher, and in what specific form the adjustment will ultimately be confirmed as ended remains unknown. However, staying cautiously optimistic is warranted—buying on dips is definitely better than chasing higher prices. It won’t be wrong.
On the cycle, we still judge that the structural signal will be established within the week after the holiday.
2、Sectors:
The strong sector is healthcare/biopharma, which established a bullish holding period for some time. Power and coal—those may rebound, but they’ve already broken below the trend. Going forward, we’ll be relatively more bullish on tourism and food & beverage consumption. Today’s performance was decent. If the index is strong, then chip and AI sectors—things like that—will also form strong structural patterns.