[US Stock Market Close] Trump says Iran requested a ceasefire; Iran dismisses it as false news; Dow rises 224 points; crude oil futures fall

Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social, saying, “The Iranian new regime president is 1% less radical than his predecessors, and much smarter. He just made a ceasefire request to the United States! We will consider this proposal, but on the condition that the Hormuz Strait must remain open, free, and passable. Before that, we will continue to bomb Iran to destruction, or, as people say, bomb it back to the Stone Age!!!” An Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said that Trump’s so-called “Iranian new regime president’s ceasefire request” statement is nothing but false news.

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued an open letter to the people of the United States on Wednesday, saying that the Iranian people have no hostility toward other countries, including people in the Americas, Europe, or neighboring countries, while the United States has amassed a large number of military bases and military forces around Iran, creating a military threat to Iran. Iran’s response—and the response it will continue to take—is based on legitimate self-defense and restraint. It is absolutely not an attempt to start a war or invade.

The Iranian state news agency IRIB, citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened to enemies due to the “absurd actions of the U.S. president.”

With market hopes that the Middle East war may end, the Dow’s rally at one point widened to 461 points. At the close, it rose 224 points to 46,565. The S&P rose 0.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.16%.

Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion to private equity firm Apollo to repurchase half of its stake in the Irish chip plant. The stock rose 8.8%; Micron (Micron) rose 8.9%.

New York crude oil futures fell as much as 4.8%, hitting a low of $96.5, and closed at $100.12, still down 1.24%; Brent crude futures fell 2.7%, closing at $101.16. The market continues to watch the content of Trump’s speech about the Iran-Israel war to be delivered on Wednesday night U.S. time.

Spot gold prices rose for a fourth straight session, up as much as 2.69%, to $4,792.96.

In the U.S., ADP employment figures for March—often referred to as the “mini nonfarm”—increased by 62,000, higher than the expected 40,000. In education, health care, and construction, employment rose by 58,000 and 30,000 respectively. Employment in trade, transportation, and manufacturing fell by 58,000 and 11,000 respectively.

When ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson accepted an interview with foreign media, she said, “We’ve already seen two consecutive months of fairly solid job growth, but most of it comes from the healthcare sector. That’s the real focus. Healthcare is changing the labor market.”

In other categories, the information services sector added 16,000 positions, natural resources and mining contributed 11,000, and leisure and hospitality added 7,000.

Companies with fewer than 50 employees dominated hiring, adding 85,000 positions; mid-sized companies shed 20,000 positions, while large companies with more than 500 employees decreased by 4,000.

This is the second consecutive month that small businesses lead in growth, Richardson said. She said this shift may be because the industry is “catching up quickly,” and it’s also influenced by inflation—“the second or third job that people need to deal with current price levels may be coming from the small business segment.”

Wage growth for employees who stayed in their original positions held steady at 4.5%, while wages for employees who “job-hopped” grew by 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from February.

Trump will deliver remarks at 9:00 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday (9:00 a.m. Thursday Hong Kong time), providing an update on the latest developments in the Iran war.

Although there is hope that the conflict will ease, the head of the International Energy Agency said that, due to the crisis in the Middle East, so far there has been a loss of more than 12 million barrels of oil supply per day. This crisis is more severe than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined and the 2022 disruption to Russia’s natural gas supply, and it is expected that oil losses in April will be double those in March. The biggest issue at present is a shortage of aviation fuel and diesel, which has already affected Asia and will affect Europe from April to May.

The International Energy Agency said it is considering further releasing strategic reserves. “If we think there is demand for crude or refined products, we may intervene.” About 40 key energy assets in the Middle East have been damaged.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see the next page for details:

Intraday market trend:

【21:30】The Dow opened higher by 338 points, to 46,680. The Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 21,769, and the S&P rose 42 points to 6,572.

【18:48】Dow futures rose 291 points, Nasdaq futures rose 0.9%, and S&P futures rose 43 points.

【14:30】Dow futures rose 210 points to 46,792; S&P futures rose 35 points to 6,606; Nasdaq futures rose 194 points or 0.8% to 24,109.

【14:30】Oil prices eased. New York crude oil futures fell 0.8% to $100.59; Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $102.28. Gold prices continued to climb: New York gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,721, and spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,703.

【14:30】【Gold price analysis】Gold briefly reclaimed the $4,700 level. Analysis: High bond yields limit the upside space for gold’s rebound. Is the January high a “once-in-a-lifetime” historical high for a generation?

【13:17】【U.S. stock analysis】Hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire sent the Dow surging by more than 1,000 points. Analysis: As long as the oil price and bond yield indicators keep moving downward, it reflects the market’s belief in the ceasefire over a relatively longer term.

【10:37】【AI startup】Anthropic reveals, due to a human error, internal source code of its coding assistant Claude Code—512,000 lines of code went viral

【10:23】【AI + layoffs】Oracle shares rise nearly 6%. Reports say it has started global layoffs—thousands of people expected to be affected

【10:05】【Gold price moves】Gold prices continued higher; spot gold briefly rose above the $4,700 level. Hopes that the Iran war could end.

【09:00】【New stock IPO】SpaceX reportedly is working with at least 21 banks to prepare for an IPO under the code name “Project Apex.”

【08:32】【NKE earnings】Nike shares fell 9% after hours. Expectations: China market sales will drop 20%.

【08:11】【Stock god Buffett】Buffett warns of fragile signs in the banking system. Panic could cause investors to exit; “even getting out the door early is still beneficial.”

【07:34】【AI + investing】OpenAI adds $12 billion to this round of fundraising. Post-investment valuation increases to $852 billion.

【07:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: We have achieved the goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons. There’s no need to reach an agreement to withdraw troops—we’ll withdraw in two or three weeks (updated continuously)

U.S. stock market as of March 31 under $1====

Tuesday: Iran’s president said it is willing to end the war if it ensures no more attacks. The Dow surged by 1,125 points and the Nasdaq rose 3.8%. Oil prices dropped.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war if it can ensure that it will not be attacked again. U.S. President Donald Trump is also reported to have signaled interest in a ceasefire, intending to end military action against Iran as long as the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened. Markets are betting on both sides deploying a ceasefire, and U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday. The Dow’s rise at one point widened to 1,167 points; oil prices fell.

At the close, the Dow rose 1,125 points to 46,341; the S&P rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq rose 3.83%.

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Focus stocks: Large-cap tech shares continued to rebound. Nvidia (U.S.: NVDA) rose 5.6%, and Tesla rose 4.6%. Meta (U.S.: META) jumped 6.7% at the close. It announced an investment of $2 billion in chipmaker Marvell, boosting Marvell by 12.8%.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran released information, designating companies and organizations related to 18 U.S. high-tech and artificial intelligence firms in the Middle East region as strike targets.

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying, “For every country that cannot obtain aviation fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz—for example, the United Kingdom, which refuses to take part in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation,’ I have a suggestion for you: First, buy from the United States—we have plenty of oil. Second, muster your courage and go to the Strait of Hormuz to take it. You must start learning self-reliance. The United States will no longer help you like it used to—just as you didn’t help us back then.”

He added, “Iran has basically been destroyed. The hardest part is already over,” asking those “onlookers” countries to get their own oil.

Foreign media reported that Trump told aides that even if the Strait of Hormuz is basically closed, he is still willing to end the United States’ military actions against Iran, raising market hopes that the conflict, which has lasted about a month, may come to an end.

New York crude oil closed down 1.46% to $101.38; spot gold had risen as much as 3.9%, topping $4,686.9.

The U.S. dollar index was slightly soft, temporarily at 99.88. Fed Chair Powell suggested that short-term rate hikes may not be necessary, and U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall steadily. The 10-year note yield was temporarily at 4.321%.

Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov said in an interview with Russian media on Tuesday that Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran, and is not in Russia receiving treatment as some rumors claim.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see the next page for details:

Intraday market trend:

【20:55】Trump: Countries that did not help the United States should learn how to get oil on their own in the future. Dow futures up 509 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%. Spot gold up 1%

【18:00】Dow futures up 407 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%. Spot gold up 1%

【15:00】Dow futures up 321 points to 45,786; S&P futures up 39 points to 6,427; Nasdaq futures up 132 points or 0.6% to 23,272.

【15:00】Oil prices held steady. New York crude oil rose 0.1% to $102.97; Brent crude rose 0.7% to $107.48. Gold prices continued to rise: New York gold rose 0.7% to $4,590; spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,558.

【14:06】【U.S. stock analysis】Powell hinted no rate hikes in the short term; U.S. stocks rose first then pulled back. Analysis: Rate hike odds have been overestimated. If fighting cools down in the short term, the S&P could return to 7,000.

【12:08】【New stock IPO】Nasdaq rolls out “Fast Track” inclusion rules, paving the way for unicorns like SpaceX to rapidly graduate to the Nasdaq 100 index

【10:48】【Gold price moves】Gold prices continued to rise by more than 1%. Powell eases rate-hike expectations + Trump reportedly is also willing to end the conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz

【08:03】【U.S. interest rates】Powell says long-term inflation expectations remain under control, emphasizing that monetary policy is in a good position

$1 below covers U.S. stock market as of March 30====

Monday: Iran’s parliament approved charging in the Strait of Hormuz. NY oil rose above 100. Nasdaq turned lower by 0.7%. The Dow rose 49 points, and at one point was up 459 points

Iran’s Islamic Parliament approved a bill on Monday to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers could be charged up to $2 million in fees.

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran had made significant progress, but warned that if the Strait of Hormuz does not restore passage, the U.S. may attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. NY crude jumped above 100, and Nasdaq turned lower.

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U.S. stocks had mixed performance on Monday. The Dow opened higher, with gains widening to as much as 459 points, then briefly fell 109 points before ending up 49 points to close at 45,216; the S&P retreated 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.73%.

NY crude oil futures rose 3.25% to $102.88, closing above the $100 mark. Brent’s May contract closed up 0.18% at $112.78.

Activist investor Bill Ackman said two major mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, fell sharply, which boosted their stock prices by 51% and 47%, respectively. U.S. Aluminum rose 8.2%.

At a public speech on Monday (the 30th), Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s response to the Iran war largely depends on how the conflict affects U.S. people’s inflation expectations. He noted that people often ignore any supply shocks of any form. But the key is that inflation expectations must be monitored closely. The Fed faces risks on both its dual mandates, including maintaining price stability and achieving maximum employment. At present, the Fed’s monetary policy is appropriate to maintain a wait-and-see posture, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will achieve a 2% inflation target.

He also said, as is well known, the implementation of monetary policy has long and unstable lags. Therefore, by the time the effects of tighter monetary policy appear, the impact on oil prices may already be over; the comments or guidance may not necessarily imply rate hikes in the near term.

On Monday, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying the U.S. is in serious talks with an entirely new, more rational Iranian regime to end the military action in Iran. He also said the talks have made significant progress, but it is not yet clear whether the two sides are truly negotiating.

Trump said, “They agreed to most of our points. How could they not?” and added, “We’ll also make some other demands.” However, he refused to reveal what specific concessions Iran has made.

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Intraday market trend:

【23:10】Powell says monetary policy has lag effects, implying rate hikes may not be needed in the short term. Oil prices jump 2%. Dow up 320 points

【21:30】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot reopen, we will blow up all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells. Oil prices jump 2%. Dow up 396 points

【19:55】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot reopen, we will blow up all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells. Oil prices jump again 2%. Dow futures up 244 points

【18:15】Dow futures up 153 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. This week focuses on Middle East developments plus nonfarm data

【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms the death of the IRGC Navy commander｜denies any direct talks (updated continuously)

【13:26】Dow futures up 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures up 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures up 22 points or nearly 0.1% to 23,351.

【13:26】NY crude oil futures up 1.3% to $100.98; Brent crude futures up 2.3% to $115.17. As for gold, the latest is stabilizing: NY gold futures up 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold up 0.4% to $4,512.

【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: Lock in the 2% inflation target; it’s too early to talk about rate hikes now. Warns of risks to the U.S. financial system from systemically

【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and occupy Khark Island export hub

【10:21】【Japanese yen moves】Jun Muramura warns of taking “bold action”—4.9 Hong Kong dollars per 100 yen

【09:30】【Oil price moves】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, but the pain will only be about half of the 2007 crisis peak

【09:17】【Gold price moves】Gold prices logged their first rise since the outbreak of the Middle East war last week, but gold is falling again this week

【08:33】【Iran crisis】War escalation pushes oil prices higher; Japan and South Korea stock markets also experienced another “Black Monday”

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise another 2%. Pakistan: Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days; Iran allows 20 ships to pass through the strait. Trump considers deploying ground forces (updated continuously)

【07:30】U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend the bombing of Iran’s power plants by 10 more days. It did not ease markets; instead, there are worries that the conflict dragging on will affect oil supplies and intensify the impact on the global economy. U.S. stocks fell last Friday. The Dow closed at 45,166, down 793 points; the S&P fell 1.67%; the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.

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U.S. stock performance last week—see: 【U.S. stock close】Iran’s nuclear facilities targeted. Fighting may expand. The Dow plunges 793 points. Oil prices rise again. The U.S. dollar breaks above 100.

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