Why Is the SPY ETF Up Today, 4/1/2026?

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY +0.75% ▲ gained 0.75% today, April 1, due to rising optimism that the U.S.-Iran conflict could be approaching an end.

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Importantly, SPY closely tracks the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which was up 0.72% in the regular trading session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) rose 1.18%.

Key Catalysts That Can Move the SPY ETF

Key catalysts likely to move the SPY ETF are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and high-stakes labor and manufacturing data. The market continues to react to the ongoing conflict, which has pushed oil prices higher and increased volatility. Any signs of de-escalation are likely to trigger a relief rally, while further escalation could fuel a deeper correction.

As Friday approaches, investors are looking ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could impact future Federal Reserve policy. Also, the final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data is expected, which reflects the strength of the industrial sector.

Fund Flows and Sentiment

SPY’s five-day net inflows totaled $2 billion, showing that investors put capital into the ETF over the past five trading days. Meanwhile, its three-month average trading volume is 88.30 million shares.

It must be noted that the crowd wisdom for the SPY ETF is very negative, whereas the hedge fund managers have increased their holdings of the ETF in the last quarter.

SPY’s Price Forecast

According to TipRanks’ unique ETF analyst consensus, which is based on a weighted average of analyst ratings on its holdings, SPY has a Moderate Buy rating. The Street’s average price target of $804.33 for the SPY ETF implies an upside potential of 22.75%.

Currently, SPY’s five holdings with the highest upside potential are:

• Loews L -0.09% ▼

• Fair Isaac FICO -0.52% ▼

• ServiceNow NOW -0.49% ▼

• Robinhood Markets HOOD +1.17% ▲

• Axon Enterprise AXON -0.26% ▼

Meanwhile, its five holdings with the greatest downside potential are:

• Moderna MRNA -1.52% ▼

• APA Corp. APA -2.57% ▼

• Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM -0.44% ▼

• CF Industries CF -1.43% ▼

• Valero Energy VLO -2.27% ▼

Revealingly, SPY ETF’s Smart Score is seven, implying that this ETF is likely to perform in line with the broader market over the long term.

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