U.S. military ground war "quick victory" plan revealed! Aiming to replicate the "42-day destruction of Iraq" myth, but Iran has never been Iraq!

On March 28, local time, news that the U.S. military is preparing ground operations against Iran has ignited the world! Unlike the full-scale invasion in the 2003 Iraq War, the Pentagon is now using a “surgical strike decapitation” tactic—no occupation of territory, no prolonged war—going straight for Iran’s oil lifeline, Khark Island, in a bid to “win in weeks” and recapture the glory of the 1991 Gulf War.

Pentagon (file photo)

But will this time the U.S. military’s “old dream” really come true? Multiple international media outlets and think tanks have repeatedly warned: clinging to the myth of “ending Iran in 42 days” may plunge the United States into a new strategic quagmire!

Force decoding: Not a full-scale invasion—precise “surgical strike decapitation” to strangle the economy

The Washington Post reported on the 28th that the Pentagon is preparing for a limited ground operation lasting several weeks, rather than an invasion aimed at full occupation. At present, thousands of Marines and paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division have already been deployed to the Middle East. Among them, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, with about 3,500 personnel, is aboard the amphibious assault ship “Tripoli,” moving directly to the core waters of the Persian Gulf. The Wall Street Journal disclosed on the 26th that the U.S. military is considering increasing ground combat forces by up to 100,000 troops, covering infantry and armored capabilities. The total force size would be only about one percent of the Iraq War, completely abandoning the wartime model of bringing in a million-strong army at the time.

The Pentagon’s strategic intent is very clear: giving up a full occupation that is costly and carries uncontrollable risks, and instead focusing on an “economic strangulation campaign.” Its core tactical objectives directly target Iran’s oil-producing areas in the southwest and the throat of the Strait of Hormuz. It also zeroes in on the key hub for Iran’s crude oil exports—Khark Island, which accounts for more than 90% of Iran’s crude oil export tasks and can be considered the lifeline of Iran’s economy.

Khark Island (file photo)

A U.S. military combat plan exposed by foreign media on the 25th shows that controlling Khark Island would cut off 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports—paralyzing its national economy at the lowest military cost. Other foreign media said the plan clearly sets invasion or blockade of Khark Island and taking control of the Strait of Hormuz as core tasks, with an operational cycle set for several weeks rather than several months. The U.S.-based Cable News Network (CNN) reported around the same time that Iran has detected the U.S. military’s movements, has deployed air defense forces to Khark Island, and has laid defensive mines to respond to a possible amphibious landing. The U.S. military had previously carried out airstrikes on more than 90 military targets on the island, deliberately preserving oil infrastructure. This makes it clear that the move is intended to prepare for the subsequent effort to seize control of the island.

This “decisive in weeks” concept of operations is the U.S. military’s strategy to rely on absolute superiority in the sea and air, paired with elite rapid-response ground forces, to bypass Iran’s deep territorial defenses and hit the economy’s soft underbelly directly. In essence, it aims to avoid repeating the mistake of the Iraq War getting bogged down in a long-term quagmire. But this is only a superficial reflection on the lessons of war; more than anything, it is a real-world compromise driven by the rising anti-war sentiment within the United States and the contraction of global strategic resources.

As can be seen, the essence of this operation is precise “pinpoint strikes” and “economic strangulation.” It does not seek full occupation; it achieves political goals of “fighting to force talks” and applying maximum pressure within a rapid timeline solely by controlling key oil-producing areas and the strait’s choke point.

Believing in an old script: the myth of “ending Iran in 42 days” is hard to fit the realities of Iran’s battlefield

The root of the U.S. military’s bet on quickly defeating Iran lies in the Gulf War glory engraved into its military strategic system, as well as blind faith in the “strike—blast it into submission first, then harvest” five-circle strike theory. In the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. military—thanks to absolute air superiority—used 42 days of airstrikes to completely destroy Iraq’s warfighting system and resistance will. It then swept through Iraq’s million-strong army in just 100 hours of ground combat, achieving an overwhelming victory at minimal cost. That war became a classic template for modern U.S. warfare. Since then, the idea of “victory from the air, rapid victory on the ground” has become deeply ingrained U.S. operational doctrine.

But the U.S. military has clearly chosen to deliberately ignore the fundamental differences between Iran and Iraq back then, and it has also disregarded the earth-shaking changes in the regional geopolitical landscape and the operational environment over the past more than three decades. First are the differences in terrain and defensive conditions: Iran’s land area is four times that of Iraq. Its terrain is a mix of mountains and plateaus, not the flat desert landscape of Iraq. This provides Iran with a natural buffer for conducting deep defense. Iran’s military leadership has already drawn up a warfighting strategy of dispersed command and trading space for time. Even if U.S. forces seize the coastal oil-producing areas, Iran can still conduct asymmetric warfare using inland terrain—continuously harassing U.S. strongholds with missiles and drones, dragging the U.S. side’s “quick war” into a war of attrition.

Second, Iran’s military strength and will to resist are far beyond what Iraq had at the time. After years of military buildup, Iran has established a complete missile and drone combat system. Shore-based anti-ship missiles and air defense firepower can fully cover areas near the Persian Gulf coast. When U.S. amphibious fleets and landing forces launch an island-seizure operation, they will face dense firepower strikes head-on. Even if they briefly occupy Khark Island, they would remain in a fragile situation under Iran’s long-term coverage of firepower. At the same time, Iran’s domestic national cohesion is extremely strong. When facing foreign invasion, the determination for nationwide resistance is enough to shatter the U.S. military’s fantasies of “fighting to force talks.”

In addition, U.S. domestic politics and its global strategic layout can no longer support it in launching a long war. After enduring the two “endless wars” in Afghanistan and Iraq, public tolerance for overseas military actions in the United States has fallen to rock bottom. Once there are casualties in the war in Iran or the fighting drags on, it will directly shake the U.S. domestic political landscape. Analysts believe that the United States’ current global strategic focus is gradually shifting eastward, and it simply lacks the capacity to sustain a long war with Iran. Any delay in the war would inevitably undermine its global strategic deployments. Caixin/China Finance and News also reported on March 28 that Iran could continuously wear down U.S. forces with low-cost drones, while the existing ammunition stockpile of the U.S. military would be hard-pressed to support long-term operations. The so-called “quick victory dream” has no way of becoming reality.

A strategic delusion is hard to break; reckless action will bring disaster to the region

The U.S. military is trying to avoid getting trapped in a war quagmire through a limited operation of “surgical strike decapitation,” yet it still cannot escape the old mindset framework of the Gulf War. It not only seriously underestimates Iran’s comprehensive resistance capabilities, but also completely misjudges the complexity of the situation in the Middle East.

Some foreign media have analyzed that the U.S. military’s fantasy of quick victory is entirely wishful thinking. Once the U.S. military launches ground operations rashly, even if it temporarily controls the strait’s choke point and oil hubs, it would directly lead to a disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering severe turbulence in global energy markets. Countries throughout the Middle East would inevitably be drawn into the conflict, and the region’s security situation would quickly spiral out of control.

From Vietnam to Afghanistan, the U.S. military’s “quick victory myth” has repeatedly shattered in quagmires. Now, the attempt to strangle Iran with “surgical strike decapitation” is nothing more than replaying an old dream with fresh packaging.

Iran is not Iraq to be slaughtered at will, and the Middle East is not the U.S. military’s “backyard.” Once the fighting ignites, the cost of global energy shocks and regional loss of control is not something the United States can afford. This high-stakes gamble was doomed to fail from the very beginning.

For more reporting leads, contact: Guoshi Direct Line

guoshi@chinanews.com.cn

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