Stifel says Macau's March gaming revenue is unlikely to impress investors, and profitability needs to become clearer.

LootboxPhobia · 2026-04-01T21:17:48+00:00

Stifel is cautious about Macau's March gaming revenue, believing that although it exceeded expectations, profitability remains a key focus for investors. Visitor spending is below historical levels, with VIP and high-end gaming recovering, but the core mass market business has not yet rebounded. It is expected that total gaming revenue will grow by 4% to 8% in 2026, with upside potential as high-end business remains strong.

LootboxPhobia

2026-04-01 21:17:48

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Investing.com – Stifel takes a cautious view of Macau’s March gaming gross revenue results, noting that although the data beat the market’s general expectations, investors’ focus has shifted from simply revenue growth to questions of profitability.

The firm said that because it cannot determine whether the revenue increase was driven by aggressive promotional spending, it is difficult for investors to assess the sustainability of these results. As the 2026 first-quarter earnings season approaches, Stifel expects investors to concentrate on the specific margin performances of each operator to gauge the level of promotion across the market.

Visitor trends in Macau have remained healthy and have surpassed 2019 levels, but spending per visitor is still below historical norms. The firm attributes this to ongoing macroeconomic challenges that are affecting consumer spending patterns.

The VIP and high-end mass gaming segments have returned to Macau, but the base mass segment has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. This shift in customer mix has created margin pressure for some operators, prompting them to increase marketing and promotional efforts to attract high-value customers.

Stifel maintains its forecast for 2026 gaming gross revenue growth of 4% to 8%. The midpoint of its current forecast is in line with the market’s general expectations. The firm noted that if the VIP and high-end mass gaming segments continue to strengthen, there is upside potential to this forecast.

For April 2026, Stifel expects gaming gross revenue to grow 7% to 11% year over year, which would be about 13% lower than the 2019 level. The firm expects 2Q2026 to rise 5% to 9% versus the same period a year earlier.

With the market broadly expecting full-year 2026 growth of 6.6%, Stifel believes this is more realistic than the expectation from 60 days ago.

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