Global News | The three major U.S. stock indices generally declined, with a 99.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged.

【US Stock Indexes】

On Thursday, March 12 (U.S. Eastern Time), all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1%. The S&P 500 declined 1.52% to 6,672.62 points; the Dow Jones dropped 1.56% to 46,677.85 points; and the Nasdaq decreased 1.78% to 22,311.98 points.

【U.S. Treasuries】

On March 12, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.27%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy—was 3.76%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular U.S. stocks, Nvidia fell 1.54%, Apple fell 1.94%, Google A fell 1.67%, Google C fell 1.69%, Microsoft declined 0.74%, Amazon dropped 1.47%, TSMC decreased 5.00%, Meta fell 2.55%, Tesla declined 3.14%, AMD fell 3.46%, and Intel decreased 5.69%.

【Global Indexes】

【China Indexes】

On March 12, the overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 0.51%, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined 1.02%, and the FTSE China A50 Index decreased 0.35%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

In popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) fell 1.00%, Alibaba dropped 1.52%, Pinduoduo declined 1.28%, NetEase rose 0.88%, Baidu fell 1.59%, Trip.com decreased 0.33%, Li Auto dropped 2.52%, XPeng Motors rose 3.55%, and NIO increased 1.10%.

【FX and Commodities】

【Global Headlines】

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 99.1%

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.9%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99.1%. The chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 3.9%, with a 96% chance of no change. The probability of a total 50 basis point cut is 0%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: The Federal Reserve still has a long way to go before returning to quantitative easing

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the Federal Reserve has a long way to go before returning to quantitative easing.

S&P considers modifying rules to accelerate SpaceX’s entry into the S&P 500

Sources reveal that S&P Dow Jones Indices is contemplating changes to the rules regarding company inclusion in the S&P 500. This could enable SpaceX to join the index more quickly after its IPO. Such a rule change might trigger a wave of passive buying worth tens of billions of dollars for the space transportation and satellite company owned by Elon Musk. Funds tracking the index are required to buy the newly added stocks. According to institutional estimates, approximately $2.4 trillion in assets are linked to the S&P 500. The index provider is currently communicating with relevant parties to determine whether rule modifications are necessary. No decision has been made yet, and S&P must first initiate a formal consultation process that will last several weeks before any changes are implemented. (Sina Finance)

Due to Iran conflict, Meta’s large undersea cable project in the Persian Gulf has been halted

Affected by the Iran situation, Meta’s large undersea cable project in the Persian Gulf has been suspended. (Caixin)

U.S. Federal Trade Commission approves Tesla’s conversion of its investment in xAI into a stake in SpaceX

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission has approved Tesla’s plan to convert its investment in xAI into a stake in SpaceX.

Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) usage stands at $137 million

On Thursday, March 12, the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) volume was $137 million across four counterparties, down from $552 million the previous trading day.

Meta introduces new AI-powered features in Facebook Marketplace

Meta has launched new AI-driven features in Facebook Marketplace.

Elon Musk: Digital Optimus will be available for all vehicles equipped with AI4

Musk announced that Digital Optimus will be available for all cars equipped with AI4.

Musk responds to netizen’s question on when Digital Optimus will be available, saying “6 months”

When asked by a netizen about the timeline for Digital Optimus, Musk replied, “6 months.” (Caixin)

Traders no longer fully expect a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026

Market participants are no longer fully expecting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026.