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U.S. stocks close｜Trump claims Iran requested a ceasefire, Iran dismisses as false news, Dow rises 224 points, crude oil futures fall
Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying, “The new Iranian regime president is 1 degree less radical than his predecessors, and much smarter. He has just submitted a ceasefire request to the United States! We will consider this proposal, but on the condition that the Hormuz Strait must remain open, free and passable. Before that, we will continue bombing Iran to destruction, or, as people say, bomb it back to the Stone Age!!!” An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said that Trump’s so-called “new Iranian regime president’s ceasefire request” statement is purely fabricated misinformation.
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published an open letter to the people of the United States on Wednesday, saying that the Iranian people have no hostility toward other countries, including people in the Americas, Europe, or neighboring countries, while the United States has amassed large military bases and military forces around Iran, creating a military threat to Iran. Iran’s response—what it has adopted and will continue to adopt—is based on lawful self-defense and restraint; it is absolutely not about starting a war or aggression.
The Iranian state news agency IRIB, quoting a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Hormuz Strait would not be opened to enemies because of “the absurd actions of the U.S. president.”
With market hopes that the Middle East war could come to an end, the Dow widened its gain to as much as 461 points at one stage, closing up 224 points, at 46,565; the S&P rose 0.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.16%.
Intel agreed to pay the private equity fund Apollo $14.2 billion, buying back half of its share of an Irish chip facility; the stock price rose 8.8%. Micron (Micron) rose 8.9%,
NY crude oil fell as much as 4.8% at one point, hitting a low of $96.5, and closed at $100.12, still down 1.24%; Brent crude fell 2.7%, closing at $101.16. The market is still watching the content of Trump’s speech about the Iran war on Wednesday night U.S. time.
Spot gold prices rose for a fourth straight session, up as much as 2.69%, to $4,792.96.
U.S. March ADP employment data, commonly dubbed “the mini nonfarm,” rose by 62,000, higher than the expected 40,000. In education and health care and construction, they increased by 58,000 and 30,000 respectively; trade, transportation and manufacturing fell by 58,000 and 11,000 respectively.
When ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson accepted an interview with external media, she said: “We have already seen fairly solid job growth for two consecutive months, but most of it comes from the healthcare sector. That’s the real focus. Healthcare is changing the labor market.”
In other areas, information services added 16,000 jobs, natural resources and mining contributed 11,000, while leisure and hospitality added 7,000 jobs.
Companies with fewer than 50 employees dominated in hiring, adding 85,000 jobs; while mid-sized companies lost 20,000 jobs. Large companies with more than 500 employees decreased by 4,000.
This is the second consecutive month of leading growth for small businesses. Richardson said this shift could be because the industry is “catching up fast,” while also being affected by inflation and “the second or third job people may need to cope with current price levels, which may be coming from the small business sector.”
Wage growth for employees staying in their original positions remained steady at 4.5%, while wages for “job hoppers” grew 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from February.
Trump will deliver a speech at 9:00 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday (9:00 a.m. Thursday Hong Kong time), introducing the latest developments in the Iran war.
Although hopes are rising for the conflict to ease, the head of the International Energy Agency said that due to the Middle East crisis, so far there has been a loss of more than 12 million barrels of oil supply per day. This crisis is more severe than the two oil crises of the 1970s and the combined interruption of Russia’s natural gas supply in 2022. The expected April oil losses will be twice those of March. The biggest problem at present is shortages of aviation fuel and diesel, which have already affected Asia and will affect Europe from April to May.
The International Energy Agency said it is considering releasing more strategic reserves. “If we think there is demand for crude oil or refined products, we might intervene.” About 40 key energy assets in the Middle East region have been damaged.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see the next page for details
Intraday trend:
【21:30】The Dow opened up 338 points, at 46,680. The Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 21,769; the S&P rose 42 points to 6,572.
【18:48】Dow futures rose 291 points, Nasdaq futures rose 0.9%, and S&P futures rose 43 points.
【14:30】Dow futures rose 210 points to 46,792; S&P futures rose 35 points to 6,606; Nasdaq futures rose 194 points or 0.8% to 24,109.
【14:30】Oil prices eased: New York crude futures fell 0.8% to $100.59, and Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $102.28. Gold prices continued to rally: New York gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,721; spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,703.
【14:30】【Gold price analysis】Gold briefly reclaimed the $4,700 level. Analysis: High bond yields limit upside room for gold’s rebound. Could January’s high be the “once-in-a-generation” historical peak?
【13:17】【U.S. stocks analysis】Futures on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire spark hope—Dow surges more than 1,000 points. Analysis: As long as oil price and bond yields keep falling, it reflects the market’s longer-term belief that a ceasefire
【10:37】【AI startup】Anthropic source code leak of coding assistant Claude Code due to human error—512,000 lines of code went viral
【10:23】【AI + layoffs】Oracle shares rise nearly 6%. Reportedly launches global layoffs; thousands of employees expected to be affected
【10:05】【Gold price moves】Gold prices continue higher; spot gold briefly breaks through the $4,700 level. Hopes that the Iran war may end
【09:00】【New IPO】SpaceX reportedly working with at least 21 banks to prepare for a listing, code name “Project Apex”
【08:32】【NKE results】Nike shares fell 9% after hours; expects China market sales to decline 20%
【08:11】【Buffett】Buffett warns of signs of fragility in the banking system; market panic could push investors out—“it’s still beneficial to run out to the door first”
【07:34】【AI + investing】OpenAI adds $12 billion in this round of funding; post-investment valuation increases to $85.2 billion
【07:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: We’ve already achieved the goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons; no need to reach an agreement to withdraw forces—you can leave in two or three weeks (updates ongoing)
$1 below are March 31 U.S. stock market conditions====
Tuesday: Iran’s president says it is willing to end the war as long as it is ensured that it won’t be attacked again. The Dow skyrockets 1,125 points and the Nasdaq rises 3.8%; oil prices fall
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war if it is ensured it will not face attacks again. U.S. President Donald Trump also reportedly signaled a ceasefire, with the intention to end military action against Iran without the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. Markets are hoping both sides will deploy a ceasefire. U.S. stocks soared on Tuesday; the Dow’s gain at one point widened to 1,167 points; oil prices fell.
The Dow closed up 1,125 points at 46,341; the S&P rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%.
See U.S. stock close right now:
Stocks to watch: Large tech stocks continue to rebound. Nvidia (U.S.: NVDA) rose 5.6%, and Tesla (Tesla) rose 4.6%. Meta (U.S.: META) closed up 6.7%, announcing an investment of $2 billion in chip maker Marvell, driving Marvell up 12.8%.
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement, saying it will target companies and institutions in the Middle East associated with 18 U.S. high-tech and artificial intelligence companies.
In a post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “Every country that can’t get aviation fuel because of the Hormuz Strait—for example, the United Kingdom, which refused to participate in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation’—here’s my advice to you: First, buy from the United States; our oil is plentiful. Second, muster your courage and go to the Hormuz Strait to seize it. You must start learning to be self-reliant. The United States will no longer help you the way it helped you before—just as you didn’t help us back then.”
He said, “Iran has basically been destroyed. The hardest part is over,” urging those “sitting on the sidelines” countries to get their own oil.
According to reports by overseas media, Trump told his aides that even if the Hormuz Strait is basically closed, he is still willing to end U.S. military action against Iran, raising market expectations that this conflict—now in its second month—could end soon.
New York crude oil closed down 1.46% to $101.38; spot gold had risen as much as 3.9%, hitting a high of $4,686.9.
The U.S. dollar index was slightly soft, at 99.88 for now. Fed Chair Powell hinted that it may not be necessary to raise interest rates in the short term; U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall steadily. The 10-year yield is temporarily at 4.321%.
Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov said in an interview with Russian media on Tuesday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran, and is not in Russia for treatment as some rumors claim.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see the next page for details
Intraday trend:
【20:55】Trump: Countries that haven’t helped the U.S. in the future must learn to get oil themselves. Dow futures up 509 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%; spot gold up 1%
【18:00】Dow futures up 407 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%; spot gold up 1%
【15:00】Dow futures up 321 points to 45,786; S&P futures up 39 points to 6,427; Nasdaq futures up 132 points or 0.6% to 23,272.
【15:00】Oil prices held steady: New York crude futures up 0.1% to $102.97; Brent crude futures up 0.7% to $107.48. Gold prices continued to rise: New York gold futures up 0.7% to $4,590; spot gold up 1.1% to $4,558.
【14:06】【U.S. stocks analysis】Powell hints that there may be no rate hikes in the short term—U.S. stocks rise first then pull back. Analysis: Rate-hike odds were overestimated; if fighting cools off in the short term, the S&P could return to 7,000 points
【12:08】【New IPO】Nasdaq rolls out “fast-track inclusion” rules, paving the way for unicorns like SpaceX to rapidly graduate to the Nasdaq 100 Index
【10:48】【Gold price moves】Gold prices continue higher by more than 1%. Powell eases rate-hike expectations + Trump reportedly not reopening the Hormuz Strait and is still willing to end hostilities
【08:03】【U.S. interest rates】Powell says long-term inflation expectations remain under control, emphasizing monetary policy is in a good position
$1 below are March 30 U.S. stock market conditions====
Monday: Iran’s parliament approves tolls in the Hormuz Strait—U.S. oil clears the $100 mark; Nasdaq turns lower 0.7%, while the Dow rises 49 points and earlier jumped 459 points
Iran’s Islamic Parliament approved a bill on Monday to impose tolls on ships passing through the Hormuz Strait, with tankers potentially facing fees of up to $2 million.
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed talks with Iran have made major progress, but warned that if the Hormuz Strait does not restore passage, the U.S. may attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. U.S. oil prices immediately pushed above $100; the Nasdaq turned lower.
See U.S. stock close right now:
U.S. stocks saw some idiosyncratic developments on Monday. After the Dow opened higher, its gain expanded to as much as 459 points, before briefly falling as much as 109 points; it ultimately closed up 49 points, at 45,216. The S&P fell back 0.39%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.73%.
New York crude oil rose 3.25% to $102.88, closing above the $100 level. Brent May crude closed up 0.18% at $112.78.
Activist investor Bill Ackman said the two major mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both had plunged, which drove their stock prices to soar 51% and 47%, respectively. U.S. Aluminum jumped 8.2%.
At a public speech on Monday (30th), Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s response to the Iran war depends largely on how the conflict affects U.S. people’s inflation expectations. He pointed out that people often ignore any kind of supply shocks. The key, however, is to closely watch inflation expectations. The central bank faces risks in its dual mandate, including maintaining price stability and achieving maximum employment. At present, the Fed’s monetary policy is appropriate to maintain a wait-and-see stance, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will achieve its 2% inflation goal.
He also noted that there is a well-known long and unstable lag effect in the implementation of monetary policy. Therefore, by the time the effects of tight monetary policy become visible, the oil price shock may have already passed, and the comments or hints may not necessarily imply rate hikes in the short term.
On Monday, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying the United States is engaged in serious negotiations with a brand-new and more rational Iranian regime to end its military action in Iran. He also mentioned that the talks have made significant progress, but if for any reason an agreement cannot be reached quickly, and if the Hormuz Strait cannot be immediately opened for commercial navigation, it would bomb and completely destroy all Iran’s power plants, oil wells and Halk Island, even including all seawater desalination plants.
He further emphasized that the United States has deliberately not touched the facilities mentioned above, stating the action is to retaliate against Iran’s “terror rule” lasting 47 years by the previous regime, during which it slaughtered and killed many U.S. soldiers and other personnel.
However, the chairman of the Iran National Development Fund Executive Committee later rebutted, saying that Iran’s power plants are dispersed and more numerous, reducing the likelihood of a full nationwide blackout. He added that if Iran’s power generation facilities are targeted, Iran will plunge the entire region into a blackout state, and said Iran’s armed forces have the ability to do so.
Gazanfari also said that countries supporting U.S. and Israeli actions will eventually have to pay a price for them, which may be reflected in damage to their homeland or in future compensation for losses to Iran.
When U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent was interviewed by overseas media, he said that the global oil market has sufficient supply, with an increasing number of ships passing through the Hormuz Strait. As time goes on, the U.S. will regain control of the Hormuz Strait, and the Hormuz Strait will achieve freedom of navigation, whether through U.S. escorts or multinational escorts.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that despite tensions between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, Trump still tends to resolve the Iran issue through diplomatic channels. He noted that the U.S. and Iran are still communicating indirectly through intermediaries, indicating that although there is conflict, diplomatic channels remain open.
He also accused the Iranian leadership of using the country’s resources to support armed groups in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Iraqi Shiite militias, while also threatening neighboring countries. He welcomed the Iranian leadership’s change in political ideas and said the U.S. would “seize” any opportunities that could prompt Iran to change its political direction.
There are signs that the situation in the Middle East is escalating. Oil prices continue to rise. In the Brent market, May futures rose by more than 2% again, to $115.08 per barrel. June futures also rose to $107.71. New York crude broke above the $100 level, to $101.81 per barrel, up 2.2%. Gold’s decline is contained, currently up 0.8% to $4,531.24 per ounce.
U.S. stocks rebounded at the open on Monday. The Dow rose 320 points to 45,487; the S&P rose 23 points to 6,392; the Nasdaq rose 31 points or 0.2% to 20,980. The U.S. will release March ADP employment changes, the March ISM manufacturing index, the March unemployment rate, and nonfarm payroll data this week.
U.S. President Trump claimed that Iran has “agreed” to most of the 15 demands the U.S. made to Tehran to end the war, though it is currently unclear whether the two sides are truly negotiating.
Trump said, “They agreed to most of our key points. How could they not have done so?” and added, “We will also make some other demands.” However, he refused to disclose what specific concessions Iran has made.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see the next page for details
Intraday trend:
【23:10】Powell says monetary policy has a lag effect, suggesting rate hikes may not be needed in the short term—Oil jumps 2%; Dow up 320 points
【21:30】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait cannot reopen, it will bomb all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells—Oil jumps 2%; Dow up 396 points
【19:55】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait cannot reopen, it will bomb all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells—oil further jumps 2%; Dow futures up 244 points
【18:15】Dow futures up 153 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%—Focus this week: Middle East conflict + nonfarm data
【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms the death of the IRGC navy commander—denies any direct negotiations (updates ongoing)
【13:26】Dow futures up 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures up 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures up 22 points or nearly 0.1% to 23,351.
【13:26】New York crude futures up 1.3% to $100.98; Brent crude futures up 2.3% to $115.17. For gold: the latest shows stabilization—New York gold futures up 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold up 0.4% to $4,512.
【12:19】【ECB】Members: Lock in the 2% inflation target; it’s too early to talk about rate hikes now; warning about systemic risks in the U.S. financial system
【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and take over the export hub on Halk Island
【10:21】【Japanese yen trend】Jun Muramura warns it will take “bold action”—4.9 Hong Kong dollars per 100 yen
【09:30】【Oil price moves】Schroders expects high oil prices to persist longer, but the pain level is only half of the peak during the 2007 crisis
【09:17】【Gold price moves】Gold prices recorded their first weekly rise since the outbreak of the Middle East war, but this week gold prices have fallen again
【08:33】【Iran crisis】Escalation in Iran war pushes oil prices higher; stocks in Japan and South Korea also experience “Black Monday”
【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise another 2%. Pakistan: Talks between the U.S. and Iran will be held in the coming days; Iran allows 20 ships to pass through the strait; Trump considers deploying ground forces (updates ongoing)
【07:30】U.S. President Donald Trump said it would extend the bombing of Iran’s power plants by another 10 days, which did not ease market concerns. Instead, there is worry that protracted hostilities could affect oil supply and worsen global economic impact. U.S. stocks fell last Friday: the Dow closed at 45,166, down 793 points; the S&P fell 1.67%; and the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.
See U.S. stock close right now:
U.S. stock market roundup last week—see：【U.S. stock close】Iran says nuclear facilities were attacked; fighting feared to expand. Dow drops 793 points; oil prices rise; U.S. dollar index breaks above 100