Gold prices fluctuate and rebound, emphasizing the value of long-term investment strategies. Guotai Gold Stocks ETF (517400) rose over 2%, with a net capital inflow yesterday.

Tianfeng Securities noted that current geopolitical disruptions are ongoing, and nonferrous metals have been trading weakly. In terms of precious metals, macroeconomic disruptions have driven gold and silver prices lower. If the conflict in the Middle East cannot be resolved in the near term, it will continue to push up energy costs, potentially strengthening near-term expectations of tighter liquidity and increasing gold-price volatility; but in the medium to long term, concerns about a recession may outweigh worries about inflation. This could lead to a renewed return to rate-cut expectations and reinforce gold’s role as an inflation-hedging instrument, with gold prices expected to rebound and rise.

In the short term, gold has shown a pattern of suppression followed by a rebound due to triple headwinds: strengthened expectations for high interest rates, an oil-price shock, and tighter liquidity. However, the medium- to long-term logic remains solid: central banks continue to buy gold (the People’s Bank of China again increased its holdings in February), de-dollarization is accelerating, and the long-termization of geopolitical conflicts is lifting stagflation expectations. Combined with the fact that current gold prices have already fallen significantly, and the RSI is approaching the oversold zone, investors may be able to set up positions at lower prices in the short term; while in the medium to long term, investors should remain firmly allocated. Watch related products:

Gold ETF Guotai (518800): a direct tool to capture gold-price trends;

Gold stock ETF Guotai (517400): may offer higher earnings amplification characteristics.

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