International urea prices soar, and fertilizer concepts remain actively engaged

Ask AI · How Russia’s export ban affects the global fertilizer supply landscape?

On March 25, fertilizer-related stocks continued to be active throughout the afternoon. Guannong Co., Ltd. hit the daily limit; Chuanheng Co., Ltd., Xuefeng Technology, Xingfa Group, YunTu Holdings, and others also followed higher.

On the news front, according to Cailianshe, due to the interruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in mid-to-early March, global commodities such as energy and fertilizers saw supply shortages. On Tuesday, Russia, another major global fertilizer supplier, announced it will temporarily stop exporting ammonium nitrate for one month. Ammonium nitrate is a type of nitrogen fertilizer. Russia controls up to 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade and is expected to resume exports only on April 21. Russia said this move is mainly intended to ensure supply for Russia’s spring planting season.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture stated that it has stopped issuing all already-approved ammonium nitrate export licenses and will not issue any new licenses, excluding those related to government contracts. Given the continuously growing demand for nitrogen fertilizer exports, pausing overseas supply will give priority to meeting domestic market demand during the spring fieldwork period.

Also, according to a broker report from China Securities Journal, global farmers are facing the dilemma of surging urea prices. Current international fertilizer prices have already risen significantly. On March 20, urea futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were quoted at $684 per ton, up 46.93% from $465.50 per ton before the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28, and up nearly 80% year over year. Historically, international urea prices reached a record high of $1,050 in April 2022.

Meanwhile, in the spot market, a key indicator for measuring North American fertilizer prices—the Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index—was quoted at $923.29 per short ton on March 20, up 22.57% from $753.26 per short ton before the Middle East conflict on February 28. The North American fertilizer price index is constructed using benchmark prices for urea at the U.S. Gulf Coast, potash for corn belt in the U.S., and DAP from NOLA barges.

Haitong Securities points out that, on the China side, with the 26-year domestic urea export inspection-and-release procedure (law) continuing to be carried out, fertilizer supply during the spring plowing season is sufficient. The impact of overseas urea on the domestic market may be limited. On March 18, the domestic urea average price was 1,902 yuan per ton, up 2% from the end of February, with a relatively small overall increase. Domestic urea mainly uses coal as a feedstock; in 2025, coal-to-urea process capacity accounts for more than 80%, meaning capacity is ample and does not rely on imports. Against the backdrop of disruptions to the global urea supply caused by the U.S.-U.S.-Iran conflict, fertilizer products such as urea, as a foundation for food security, highlight their strategic position. After the domestic spring fertilizer use period ends, domestic production companies are expected to enter a urea export window period. At present, the domestic-to-overseas urea price spread is above 2,500 yuan per ton. Haitong recommends domestic urea leading enterprises.

Founder Securities states that, it is suggested to focus on urea-related companies such as China Sinofert (China Xinlianxin Fertilizer), and Hubei Yihua; phosphorus chemical-related companies such as Yuntianhua, YunTu Holdings, Baitian Co., Ltd., Chuanheng Co., Ltd., Xingfa Group; potash fertilizer-related companies such as Askal International, Salt Lake Co., and Dongfang Tieta; and also composite fertilizer companies with relatively low valuations such as Stanley.