International Observation | The US, Israel, and Iran conflict triggers "three major changes" in Middle Eastern geopolitics

Xinhua News Agency Cairo, March 30 reported that on February 28, the United States and Israel launched a military strike against Iran. At the time, some media outlets warned that the war “will drag the Middle East region into an unpredictable outcome.”

For more than a month now, the fighting has continued to spread, and the situation in the Middle East has been moving in a direction that is harder to predict and harder to control. Experts believe the conflict has seriously undermined regional security, prompting regional countries to reflect and seek change, and reflecting the United States’ “inability to cope” in shaping the regional situation. While the prolonged war has triggered changes in the Middle East landscape, it may also become “an important chapter in the evolution of global power.”

This is a destroyed residential area photographed on March 12 in an eastern neighborhood of Tehran, Iran. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Shadati

“Regional conditions completely turned upside down”

“Whatever the war’s final outcome, the Middle East will be completely unrecognizable.” An article by Spain’s El Confidencial wrote. As the U.S.-Israel-Iran war continues to escalate and spill over, it is pushing the Middle East security situation toward a dangerous abyss.

First, the spread of the fighting is aggravating the risk of losing control of the situation. With Yemen’s Houthi forces “joining the fray,” a new front could emerge in the direction of the Red Sea. Iran is “in danger but not down,” but its military and economic strength has been severely damaged. Israel may take advantage of the momentum to increase military actions in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Yemen, and other places. As more forces become involved and more battlefronts open up, regional conflicts become more complex and more protracted, making it easier to slide into an uncontrolled state marked by multi-point resonance and chain escalation.

Second, “new grudges and old hatreds” may fuel a cycle of conflict. The fighting escalates regional turmoil and further deepens hatred between the U.S.-Israel and Iran. The U.S.-Israel side will not give up efforts to comprehensively destroy Iran’s regime and military capabilities, while Iran views the U.S.-Israel side as a “long-standing enemy from generation to generation” to its national security and the survival of its regime. Some Iranian experts say the Trump administration has “successfully instilled in Iran’s younger generation坚定反美.” In the view of Abou Bekr Dib, an adviser at the Egyptian Center for Arab Studies, even if the fighting ends, hostility and confrontation between the U.S.-Israel and Iran will persist, and the region may fall into a security dilemma of repeated rounds of conflict.

Third, the logic of “force above all” squeezes the space for political dialogue. The Middle East has historically been battered by war, and increasingly, reaching agreement through dialogue to resolve differences has become a consensus and demand of regional countries. However, when the U.S.-Israel side carried out attacks during the Iran nuclear talks process, it directly undermined the positive momentum for resolving disputes through dialogue. Mustapha Ameen, an expert on international affairs at Egypt, warned that the “force above all” logic pursued by the U.S.-Israel side, as well as the seeds of hatred and conflict it has planted in the Middle East, may cause future ways of settling regional disputes to once again tilt toward military suppression rather than dialogue and consultation—this would be the greatest injury the war inflicts on the Middle East.

A “structural deadlock” pushes Gulf states to seek change

During the fighting, multiple Gulf countries that have U.S. military bases were targeted, affecting both security and people’s livelihoods; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, putting export pressures on many countries. Regional experts believe that overlapping security anxieties of being “betrayed by the United States” and worries about development prospects are driving Gulf states to rethink their way forward.

Smoke rises at the scene of an attack in southern Riyadh on the evening of March 18. Photo by Xinhua News Agency

On the one hand, the fighting intensifies the Gulf states’ security predicament. The more the United States gets involved in Middle East affairs, the higher the regional security risks. The more the Gulf states rely on the United States for security, the more they will join conflicts that the United States stokes. The U.S. “security guarantees” instead become a “source of risk.” Experts such as Ding Long and others from the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University believe that Gulf states spend huge amounts of money to obtain U.S. security guarantees, only to find themselves trapped in a “structural deadlock” in which their deeper dependence on the U.S. leads to higher security risks.

On the other hand, intensifying regional turmoil exacerbates Gulf states’ development predicament. An article by the BBC “Middle East Eye” network analyzes that security and stability are prerequisites for economic development in Gulf states. Against a backdrop of worsening regional security, Gulf states will not only face disruptions to sectors such as aviation, logistics, and energy, but also face long-term challenges such as soaring reconstruction costs and falling investment confidence—and may even “miss strategic opportunities to build themselves into global financial and technology hubs.”

How to get out of this predicament? Regional experts such as Dana al-Eneneyzi, a scholar of international relations from Kuwait, believe that in the future Gulf states will seek more firmly diversified security partner relationships, and strengthen their own and collective defensive capabilities, which will “more effectively safeguard national security than relying on extra-regional great powers.” On the economic front, Alison Miner, a researcher at the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank, says Gulf states may in the future shift toward diversified industrial layouts, open new trade and energy corridors, and enhance development resilience.

“An important chapter in the evolution of global power”

After enduring more than a month of high-intensity military strikes by the U.S.-Israel, Iran has not seen a change of regime; its determination to retaliate has not wavered, and it has even decided to drag the U.S.-Israel into a “war of attrition.” At the same time, the U.S. side’s actions failed to gain support from regional and European allies. Calls for opposition to the war have risen among the international community and within the United States, and the U.S. has suffered a double loss politically and economically.

On February 28, people hold a protest at the Parliament Square in London, United Kingdom, opposing U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Ying

Experts point out that for a long time the United States has tried to use military force to pressure “non-compliant countries,” and to forcibly shape the regional landscape according to U.S. wishes, but the conflict now shows that the United States is no longer able to “do whatever it wants.” Abdule-Aziz Shabani, a researcher at the Riyadh-based Center for Political and Strategic Studies, believes that the Middle East, and the world at large, now has a clearer understanding of the U.S.’s schemes for hegemony and its vulnerabilities, and that the U.S. “can no longer decisively shape the regional situation as it did in the past.”

Several scholars have compared this war to the Suez Canal Crisis of 1956. That crisis is widely regarded as a landmark event marking Britain’s complete loss of its dominant position in the Middle East region.

Alfred McCoy, an American historian, said that the U.S.-Israel-Iran war could become the U.S.’s “Suez Canal moment,” leading the U.S. to accelerate its loss of global credibility and geopolitical influence. Kahilf Hassan Khan, a scholar at Paragon International University in Cambodia, believes that as the United States is increasingly viewed as a force that undermines stability, its hegemony will decline accordingly.

In the view of experts from multiple countries, the trajectory and impact of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war deeply affect the evolution of the global geopolitical landscape. Warwick Powell, an Australian scholar, said the current fighting may accelerate strategic autonomy among many countries, promote regional integration and the development of their own resilience, and objectively push the international order to transition toward a “more balanced multipolar framework.”

“Not only is this a regional conflict, it will also become an important chapter in the evolution of global power.” An analysis article by the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs wrote.

Source: Wu Baoshu / Xinhua Net