Trump's Remarks Spark Global Stock Market Surge, Low Trading Volume Suggests Weak Recovery Foundation

On April 1, despite President Trump’s statement about “withdrawing troops within three weeks” igniting a retaliatory rebound in global stock markets, deep-seated anxieties about the global economic outlook have not dissipated beneath the surface of market prosperity. On Wednesday, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index recorded its largest single-day gain since April 2025, and the European Stoxx 600 Index also rose by 2.5%. However, the sluggish trading volume reveals the fragility of the rebound—taking the South Korean Composite Index as an example, trading volume was only 80% of the average level over the past month. Investors are concerned that even if the U.S. withdraws its troops, the shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will remain a long-term drag on fundamentals. Currently, while Brent crude oil has fallen below $100, it is still about 37% higher than pre-war levels. Analysts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Mizuho Securities point out that the structural increase in energy costs will squeeze corporate profits and weaken purchasing power. Particularly in emerging Asian markets that rely on energy imports, capital outflows reached $68 billion last month, significantly exceeding the levels seen at the onset of the pandemic. As the earnings season approaches, the substantial damage to corporate profits from the war is about to be revealed, which could end the current “rebound” at any moment. (Jinshi)