March is tough, what about April???

[Taoguba]
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For everyone, I’ll lay out the market tape. All content is based on simulated scenario analysis; it’s purely my personal sandbox thinking and does not constitute any real-trade advice. Market volatility is intensifying—only with clear logic can we go steady and far. Please remember: the market always puts risk first; only by staying alive can you wait for the flowers to bloom.**

A-shares today ushered in an April “open-the-gates” surge. The Shanghai Index rose 1.46%, closing at 3948.55 points; the Shenzhen Component rose 1.70%, closing at 13706.52 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, closing at 3247.52 points. Trading volume was 202.51 billion yuan, up slightly by 19 billion yuan.

Industry sectors broadly rose, with leading gains in medical services, biological products, chemical pharmaceuticals, medical aesthetics, games, components, hotels and catering, medical devices, and semiconductors.

As for individual stocks, nearly 4500 stocks rose, and more than 60 hit the daily trading limit. The pharma sector continued to be strong: Zhizhi Medical 20cm hit the limit, and Jinzhou Pharmaceutical ran a four-day winning streak. The computing-power hardware concept surged—Zhili Fang 20CM hit the limit, setting a historic high; computing-power leasing repeatedly became active—Aorui De hit the limit 6 times in 11 days.

Regarding funds, communication equipment saw net inflows of 5.480 billion yuan, the highest; power saw net outflows of 2.975 billion yuan.

【Market Recap: The gap is filled—climbing out of the pit is where it starts】

Yesterday I said we would need to “break and kill” 3900—sure enough, it got killed, and it didn’t get repaired back. Today, influenced by developments overseas, it opened higher and filled the final gap above at 3955, then regained the 5-day moving average.

Regaining 3906 means the swing has returned to a position of strength, but the daily and weekly charts won’t be truly bullish until they hold above 4000. Most individual stocks need to wait for a breakout above 4000 in order to repair the recent pit. Currently, individual stocks are not outperforming the index; the two are diverging—this is normal. The index first sets the stage, and individual stocks later perform.

【About March: A baptism】

In March, overseas conditions were unstable, and the fear triggered by the blowout rally in the petroleum industry chain caused a deep pit. The main force’s funds gradually flowed out, but the pit they smashed ended up giving them an opportunity to add positions in reverse. Last Monday I stated clearly that we were at the bottom; the tape then entered several days of a rebound, successfully moving into the bottoming phase, and today we already have an effective five-day base.

During the process of grinding out the base, the main force hopes you’ll give up your shares and chase the sectors that have already risen. Why do I always say not to get “brainwashed by a main-line mindset”? Because you’re a retail trader, not a top-tier ultra-short-term player. In fact, you don’t really need to be busy every day constantly trading—though securities firms want you to do it that way. Generally, stable annual returns of 30 to 50 percentage points are enough for most retail investors. There’s no need to chase those stocks that keep you up at night. Of course, setting a target for yourself isn’t a bad thing; it’s just that I’d recommend going steady and building in a solid way. For short-term trading, I personally do it almost every day. These past days I’ve also been sharing along; when the market isn’t good, I work hard to make up for it—and today I also took action.

【Old Script: Swing Holdings】

1. Yixin Hall: Today the strongest is the pharma sector, which validated my judgment. Hold steady, waiting for the big bullish candle to pull it up to 14+. This stock has already turned strong, but it may still move sideways for a few days before it rallies. There’s no need to T—hold and wait for a breakout. If you’re lucky, it can reclaim 15+ in one go.

2. Daye Shares: Four big bullish-candle moves completed the arbitrage: 12cm, 7.6cm, 10cm, 7cm. On Monday I said don’t move first; yesterday I said it could be T if it breaks down through the level, and in reality it did break through and got killed. But today it stopped the fall; the pullback point is clear. Tomorrow, if it closes as a small bullish candle, that would mark the bottom—and it still needs to break above 31+ to be in a position to take profit.

3. Qiming Century: The bottom will base again, and it will also rebound back up. It’s just a bad experience—the rebound hits a position and then you need to pull back again. If you entered near 16, wait until your account turns red before cutting it. If you like it, come back after the right-side confirmation. The part coming down from above is something you should prepare for long-term.

4. Longtou Shares: The 5-day moving average hasn’t been broken, so it continues to trade sideways. Ideally, make it even longer—then the breakout will be more powerful. In this cycle, the most it may rally is to around 9 yuan before it runs out of steam. So if there’s a chance to turn back from below, it can be there. Hold and wait—this level won’t be that strong.

5. Goer Shares: Continue bottoming. In the short term, don’t expect too much. Wait until it rebounds back to 26 and then we’ll talk. For the long-term view, look at this stock—most retail traders at this kind of location would cut their losses. A month of basing at the bottom—that’s the status quo.

6. Some Health Target: Step by step, it moves upward. Tomorrow it may need to pull back—because the top is capped too tightly, it’s easy to turn back and form a base before a volume-backed breakout. This kind of stock is mainly designed to wear you out until you can’t stand it and give up on cheap shares.

I basically don’t have the old script. The reason I still work so hard updating every day is, on one hand, continuous output to provide market-tape logic to people who are destined; on the other hand, it’s also because I follow the market to search for new opportunities. While giving suggestions, I also respect the market’s choice—some people like to buy wrong and then switch; others like to repeatedly do arbitrage within a single stock. There’s no right or wrong—only what fits. But regardless of which style, continuous training of market sense and understanding the trading route is the root of surviving through cycles. Maybe you understand one stock; once you understand it, you won’t be afraid anymore.

【New Script and Short-Term Trading Standoff】

1. Yidao Information: Keep waiting for the base to complete and form a rebound big bullish candle. It probably still needs another two trading days before it moves upward. Today it first held above the 5-day moving average. This kind of base is along the 5-day line, move sideways until the base is done, then break upward. The rhythm is already set in stone—just have patience.

2. Beinmei: For now, it’s still broken down. Keep it on the watch for a few more days until it returns to above support, then a big bullish candle breaks out and a V-shape forms. At this level, you either suffer in a different place, or you wait until the tape finishes. Most individual stocks are in the pit; funds will guide you to cut and then chase higher.

3. Jingxing Paper (Uncle Xing): It’s moving above the yearly line. Today the K-line moved up a bit. No need to worry that it can’t pull out a big bullish candle—give the trading route time. Tomorrow, it’s highly likely to keep moving sideways, at most two more Ks horizontally; it should also break out. Downside has little room; upside can rally a big bullish candle. Seven yuan needs to be realized; in the middle, it likely still needs to go through one more pullback.

4. Beidou Starcom: On Tuesday I said K-lines like this might continue to move sideways. Today it indeed couldn’t break through. No real suspense—keep moving sideways for a few days and then break out. It’s easy to knock it down; it’s hard to get it back. Time is right here—finish the sideways consolidation and then wait for the breakout.

【Track Record Recap】

Before the New Year: Rainbow Group, Rainbow Shares (both hit the limit), Ningbo Far Ocean (hit the limit), Zhongrui Shares (limit-up for three or four days), China National Fisheries (second wave limit-up after 11 points), GCL Integrated (became a妖股 after a reversal and engulfing)

After the New Year: Huayin Electric Power (28 points in consecutive limit-ups), Intelligent Control (28 points in consecutive limit-ups), Chuanfa Longmang (two-day limit-up), Yidao Information (two days of big bullish candles), Jiangnan High-Fiber (limit-up by 15 points), Daye Shares (four big bullish candles), Hengtian Hailong (three days, 20 points), Shunna Shares (one-day trip limit-up), Beinmei (rallied 7 points during the stock crash), Jingxing Paper (during the stock crash, 305 stocks turned red before rallying 7 points), Huadong Heavy Machinery (four days, two limit-ups), Dashengdah (one-day trip limit-up), Jiu Zitang (one-day trip, 1 point), Beihua Shares (one-day trip, 5 points)

Those who haven’t unfollowed will keep posting.

【Closing】

A recap is a kind of X-hang. Every day, spend half an hour to sort out the tape—even if you only improve a tiny bit, over the long term it will be astonishing compounding returns.

The market never lacks opportunities; what’s missing is the eye that spots opportunities and the patience to wait for them. Learn to make choices, and you can get through volatility. March is hard, but April has just begun.

If you think the recap helps, please like and interact. Also顺手点个赞—million-a-day isn’t a dream! See you tomorrow!

The market has no constant nature—take care, everyone. — Dayun Pen.

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Recap time is limited—just jot down a few screenshots. Keep liking, commenting, and interacting every day to recap. I believe that’s also a kind of growth accumulation, and it will only get better and better!

“Open a fan bonus: from now on, at the bottom of the recap posts, everyone can leave the individual stocks you follow. My energy is limited, so I can’t guarantee to reply to every one, but I’ll choose some to discuss based on objective dimensions like volume-price relationships and industry logic during the recap. Of course, you can also share your own logic—I’ll add the rest. Usually I reply before the market opens!!!
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Note: My replies are meant to provide thinking from different angles. No picks, no hype—purely logic exchange. I hope everyone treats this place as a discussion area and improves together, but please don’t blindly follow.”**