$39 trillion in U.S. debt exposed, China is shipping back gold bars in batches, Trump issues an emergency statement

The dollar is a benefit for the United States, but a burden for the world. For the U.S. itself, the former U.S. Treasury debt was a reservoir for excess dollars. But today, U.S. Treasury debt has become the “sword of Damocles” hanging over America’s head—one that could fall at any time.

And just when U.S. Treasury debt kept breaking new highs to reach $39 trillion, who would have thought that China would be aggressively accumulating gold. At the same time, Russia directly announced a ban on gold exports. And at this critical moment, Trump also urgently weighed in, saying he would visit China in May. Is the U.S. getting anxious?

In fact, the situation today, for the U.S., can no longer be described as “not good.” You could say it has reached a point where everything is on the line.

That is why we see that Trump can actually lie in front of the whole world—one moment talking to Iran as if negotiations are underway, and the other moment actively preparing for war. Why is that?

The core reason is this: Iran today is “barefoot and not afraid of wearing shoes,” while the U.S. is carrying $39 trillion in Treasury debt, and at the same time holding a huge bubble in U.S. stocks. At this point, what the market fears most is the continuation of war and uncertainty in the market.

At this stage, besides lying to reassure the market, what else can Trump do?

Even more importantly, today the U.S. has $39 trillion in Treasury debt. This year, $10 trillion of it will mature. Meanwhile, the U.S. has a fiscal deficit of $2 trillion every year. That means the U.S. needs to issue $12 trillion in debt this year in order to replace the previous debt.

That’s what we call “borrowing new to repay old.” But the problem today is that the interest on the former debt was around 1%, whereas today the U.S. can only borrow money at around 4%. And this money is not long-term—it’s short-term, such as the two-year note, etc.

This means that in the future, every year the U.S. will face heavy pressure from debt service. At the same time, the interest on Treasury debt will jump from around $1 trillion today to $2 trillion.

For the U.S., this is clearly not something it wants to see. But what options does the U.S. have right now?

And even if this situation isn’t the worst case, the worst case is that the dollar seems to be losing its anchor. Previously, we called it “petrodollars.”

But today, the most core oil regions in the world are actually where the U.S. is losing control. Iran is trying to negotiate and manage the Strait by controlling it—and Iran is even proposing a scenario that doesn’t involve the United States.

If that really happens, it would mean the problem today isn’t that U.S. Treasury debt can’t be sold—it would mean the dollar has become worthless paper. For the U.S., that’s a knockout blow.

And today, China is steadily accumulating gold, even exchanging the U.S. Treasury debt it holds into gold and so on. In other words, the reason the U.S. is attacking Iran and抢夺 assets across the globe is, frankly, to find an asset to anchor the dollar.

It’s just that the U.S. today is too weak, and instead it has accelerated the U.S.’s decline.

Perhaps the only thing that could rescue the U.S. right now is to quickly reach an agreement with China and manage trade. That’s why we’re seeing that Trump has again announced a visit to China in May.

Because at this time, if they don’t lock it in, then in the future what the U.S. charges will likely be even higher. And the problems the U.S. faces today also require a country to act as an intermediary to mediate—after all, the U.S. has already lost credibility.

At this point, besides China, are there any other options?

Author’s statement: personal views, for reference only