CFTC Targets Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

TLDR

• The CFTC enforcement chief said insider trading laws apply to prediction market event contracts classified as swaps.
• David Miller stated that the agency will prosecute traders who use misappropriated or nonpublic government information.
• The CFTC confirmed it will prioritize cases involving market abuse and anti-money laundering violations.
• Lawmakers introduced two bipartisan bills to restrict insider trading in financial prediction markets.
• Kalshi and Polymarket updated their compliance rules in response to regulatory and public pressure.

The CFTC’s enforcement chief warned that the agency will pursue insider trading in prediction market platforms. He stated that insider trading laws apply to event contracts classified as swaps. Lawmakers and regulators have increased scrutiny as trading volumes exceeded $20 billion monthly.

CFTC Says Prediction Market Trades Fall Under Swaps Law

CFTC enforcement director David Miller addressed insider trading concerns during a panel at New York University. He rejected claims that insider trading rules do not apply to prediction market platforms. He said, “We are aware of the speculation about insider trading, and we are watching.”

He added that mainstream narratives misstate the law and create confusion for market participants. He said the insider trading law applies because event contracts qualify as swaps under federal statutes. He stated, “There’s a myth that insider trading doesn’t apply in prediction markets, and that is wrong.”

Miller confirmed that the agency will focus on cases involving misappropriated information. He said the CFTC will prosecute those who tip or trade using confidential government data. He told the audience that the agency will not spend resources on trivial matters.

He emphasized prosecutorial discretion while outlining enforcement priorities. He said the Commission will target market abuse and anti-money laundering violations. He reiterated that enforcement staff will assess facts before filing charges.

Recent trading activity has increased scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers. Trading volumes in prediction market contracts exceeded $20 billion in monthly activity, according to TRM Labs. Officials raised concerns after several traders placed timely bets before major government announcements.

In one case, an anonymous trader earned more than $400,000 by wagering on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. In other instances, traders placed positions before announcements linked to President Donald Trump. Authorities also reviewed trades related to reports about Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei.

Lawmakers Push Bills as Platforms Tighten Rules

Lawmakers introduced new bills that address insider trading in prediction market platforms. In late March, they proposed the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. The bill seeks to restrict government officials from trading on nonpublic information.

During the same week, lawmakers introduced the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, known as the PREDICT Act. The proposal aims to curb the misuse of inside knowledge in event-based contracts. Sponsors described the legislation as bipartisan.

At the same time, leading platforms updated internal compliance standards. Kalshi and Polymarket implemented new rules that restrict insider trading on their markets. The companies announced policy changes following public and congressional pressure.

Democratic lawmakers also urged the CFTC to issue guidance to federal employees. They asked the agency to warn staff against using confidential information in prediction market trades. The CFTC acknowledged the requests while outlining ongoing enforcement priorities.