Fidelity: Bitcoin's Retracement in This Cycle is 'Significantly Narrowed'

On April 1, Fidelity Digital Assets stated that Bitcoin’s decline in this market cycle is approximately 50%, which is much smaller than in previous cycles, and this trend may continue for the long term. Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright pointed out on Tuesday that historically, Bitcoin has experienced severe retracements of 80% to 90% after reaching all-time highs, whereas the retracement in this cycle is only about 50%. He noted that from the price performance following each historical peak, it is clear that Bitcoin shows a diminishing return pattern across cycles. “Each bull market’s upward momentum is weaker than the previous one, and the downside risk for the current cycle in 2026 is also significantly reduced.” According to TradingView data, Bitcoin reached a low of over $60,000 on February 6 in this cycle, down 52% from its historical high of about $126,000 on October 6; the current price is down 46% from its peak six months ago. In contrast, the previous cycle saw a more dramatic decline: Bitcoin fell from its historical high of $69,000 in June 2021 to below $16,000 during the bear market in November 2022, resulting in a cumulative retracement of up to 77%.