Farewell to the 1499 yuan era! The retail price of Feitian Maotai has increased, initiating a "market-driven" pricing model. Can this open up new price prospects?

At the evening of March 30, Guizhou Moutai released a major matters announcement. Effective March 31, 2026, the sales contract price (ex-factory price) for Feitian 53% vol 500ml Moutai liquor (2026) will be adjusted from 1,169 yuan per bottle to 1,269 yuan per bottle, and the retail price in the self-operated system will be adjusted from 1,499 yuan per bottle to 1,539 yuan per bottle. It has been a little more than two and a half years since the ex-factory price was raised to 1,169 yuan per bottle for the previous time.

In a report by the “Daily Economic News · Jiāng Jìn Jiǔ” section, the reporter noted that from 2022 to 2024, the company’s actual production capacity remained stable at 56,000 tons for three consecutive years, with almost no increase; the market spot price for Feitian Moutai has been continuing to decline since last year. With volume unable to grow and prices under pressure, raising prices seems to be the inevitable choice. But the increase of less than 9% is clearly more “restrained” than the previous round.

On the other hand, the announcement clearly states that the self-operated retail price for Feitian Moutai has been adjusted to 1,539 yuan per bottle. From iMoutai shifting guidance price to retail price, to the adjustment from 1,499 yuan up to 1,539 yuan, it not only announces the complete break with the 1,499 yuan “guidance price” that had been in use for 8 years, but also means that the Feitian Moutai price has officially entered a “follow-the-market” phase.

Since this time it did not stipulate end-terminal prices for the distributor system, does that mean distributors can also set their prices freely? Just how much incremental contribution to this year’s performance will this price increase bring? After breaking the 1,499-yuan ceiling, where will market pricing go? Is the “market-oriented reform” that Moutai repeatedly emphasized truly taking a critical step? What kind of impact will this have on the industry?

A restrained increase of nearly 9% in ex-factory price

Price adjustment covers full-year performance at the end of the first quarter

But the contribution may be limited

“Keeping prices firm can control volume; the company’s performance is guaranteed.” Speaking about Guizhou Moutai’s price hike, a securities analyst was direct.

In the liquor industry, it’s common for manufacturers to raise prices during the off-season. But this time, Moutai chose the end of the first quarter. The previous price increase happened in November 2023; at that time, the boost to that year’s performance was limited, and the true dividend was released in 2024. This time, the price increase falls right at the close of the first quarter of the year, meaning the price-increase effect will fully cover performance for the whole year, and its lift to the income statement is evidently more direct.

In 2024, the first full year after the previous round of price increases, Guizhou Moutai achieved total operating revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, up 15.66%; and attributable net profit of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38%. On a high base, the company has maintained double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for the eighth consecutive year.

But the chill from industry adjustments has not dissipated. In 2025, the company lowered its target for total operating revenue growth to 9%; in the first three quarters, the actual growth rates of revenue and net profit were only 6.32% and 6.25%.

On the other hand, the market spot price for Feitian Moutai liquor has been declining steadily since last year, while the company’s actual production capacity has remained around 56,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, with three straight years of almost no increase. Since volume cannot grow and prices face pressure, to meet the established performance targets, it seems there is only one road left: price.

However, the contribution of this price increase to performance may be limited.

After the previous price increase, several securities firms estimated that this single item alone would thicken the company’s 2024 profit by more than 4.5 billion yuan, but this time the force has clearly been scaled back.

Looking back at Moutai’s nine ex-factory price increases since its listing, the magnitude has never been below 15%, with per-bottle increases ranging from 50 yuan to 200 yuan. In this round, the per-bottle increase is only 100 yuan, with a rise of less than 9%. Compared with the previous round of 200 yuan per bottle and a 20% increase, it looks somewhat “restrained.”

The above-mentioned securities firms predict that after the price increase, it is expected to bring about roughly 2% growth in performance.

But the logic behind adjusting prices has never been solely about profit. Industry analysis suggests that for manufacturers, price adjustment is not simply about pursuing profit growth; instead, it is to make product prices more aligned with the real market, so that price signals are more transparent and effective. Through selecting precise timing for adjustments and adjusting scientific mechanisms for interest distribution, Moutai not only further solidifies its long-term development foundation, but also sets a benchmark for the industry that is currently in a cycle adjustment—rather than exhausting itself in a price war, it is better to reshape a transparent and stable price system through channel reforms and digital tools.

“Guidance price” becomes “retail price”

Feitian Moutai truly enters a “follow-the-market” pricing phase

For the market, the performance elasticity brought by this adjustment may not be as strong as in the past, but more importantly: it marks a key step in Moutai’s market-oriented reform. In addition to raising the ex-factory price, the company also clearly increased the retail price in the self-operated system by 40 yuan to 1,539 yuan per bottle.

“Essentially, it’s the marketization of pricing—follow the market.” A distributor told the reporter that the ex-factory price adjustment itself is not marketization, but the core change is abolishing the 1,499-yuan guidance price that had been followed for many years. This is the first time since 2018 that Moutai has adjusted its market guidance price.

In his view, in recent years Moutai has increased ex-factory prices multiple times, but because the market has always been “fixed” at 1,499 yuan in the form of the guidance price. This year’s January, when iMoutai launched Moutai liquor products, it had already changed the former “guidance price” to a “retail price,” but the Feitian Moutai price was still locked at 1,499 yuan per bottle.

And with this retail-price increase, it officially says goodbye to the 1,499 yuan-per-bottle price that had been executed for 8 years. This will be a landmark action for Feitian Moutai’s price to enter a “follow-the-market” mode. It may also mean that its price can be adjusted at any time in the future according to market supply and demand.

In addition, it is worth paying special attention that in this announcement, the company only clearly set the retail price for the self-operated system and did not make hard rules for the end-terminal prices in the distributor system. This may leave room for distributors to set prices freely according to market conditions.

Since the market-oriented transformation was proposed at the end of last year, one important move by Moutai has been on the “iMoutai” platform, where the prices of all products are clearly labeled as “retail price.” Defining terminal prices as “retail price” reflects Moutai’s intention to regain pricing power in the market, avoid abnormal price fluctuations, and at the same time set a reasonable range for channel profits.

Breaking the 1,499-yuan guidance price is like opening up new pricing space for distributors. The above-mentioned distributor further explained that previously, selling below the guidance price was not allowed; now that constraint is gone, and in the future they can decide entirely how much to sell for based on market demand. It also can’t be ruled out that Moutai may adjust according to market dynamics, while the company can also control volume through iMoutai to maintain price stability.

Moutai’s senior leadership has repeatedly emphasized protecting distributors’ reasonable profits. And in the announcement dated January 14 this year, the company explicitly stated: under the distributor model, it will scientifically and reasonably calculate and dynamically adjust the sales contract price according to operating costs, operating difficulty, operating risks, service capabilities, and so on for different products and different channels.

Some industry analysis points out that this series of actions shows that the purpose of Moutai’s reform is certainly not to eliminate distributors or to disrupt the existing channel system, but to clarify the division of responsibilities between manufacturers and distributors and the allocation of profits through a more transparent pricing mechanism and dynamic adjustments, ultimately ensuring reasonable returns at the channel end.

Leading liquor enterprises generally “cut prices downward”

Why is Moutai choosing “raise prices” against the trend?

The timing of Moutai’s price adjustment also stands in sharp contrast to its peers.

Since 2025, China’s baijiu industry has entered a deep-water zone where “policy adjustments, consumption transformation, and stock-competition” overlap. High channel inventories and generally inverted pricing have become industry norms, and distributor profits are thin or even turning into losses.

According to the “2025 China Baijiu Market Interim Research Report,” in the first half of 2025, the three most severely inverted price bands were, in order, 800-1,500 yuan, 500-800 yuan, and 300-500 yuan. Among them, products priced in the 500-800 yuan band are the hardest to survive. The reporter noted that the 500-800 yuan price band is the core territory for mid-to-high-end baijiu, and it is also the main price band for this round of concentrated ex-factory price adjustments by leading liquor enterprises.

To ease channel pressure in a practical way, since last year, multiple leading enterprises such as Wuliangye, Xijiu, and Langjiu have all adjusted downward the ex-factory prices of their core products. Or, they have achieved “de facto price cuts” through channel subsidies, quota adjustments, and other means, covering multiple price bands including high-end and mid-to-high-end.

While the industry generally “cuts prices downward,” Moutai has chosen “raise prices upward.” What logic lies behind this?

Industry analysis suggests that unlike other liquor companies relying on channel destocking to drive growth, Moutai’s production capacity has been stable at 56,000 tons for three consecutive years with almost no room for expansion. While end demand has fluctuated under the impact of the broader environment, there is still rigid demand in core scenarios such as high-end gifting, collection, and banquets. When supply cannot expand but demand still has support, raising prices is no longer a gamble; it is a re-pricing of scarcity.

Baijiu expert Xiao Zhuqing believes that from an industry perspective, Moutai’s counter-cyclical price adjustment releases a clear signal: top brands still have the ability to use market-oriented means to regulate supply and demand and optimize the pricing system, injecting confidence into leading the industry out of the adjustment period.

When prices are more transparent, channels are healthier, consumption is more real, and development is more certain, the high-quality development path of the baijiu industry will also proceed more steadily. Moutai’s move is expected to help the industry shift from “cycle anxiety” to “deep value cultivation,” and provide a reference path for the industry to get through this round of adjustment cycle.

Daily Economic News