Falls below 10 yuan/kg! "Pig King" Muyuan Foods' quarterly profit shrinks by 90%!

China’s domestic hog market is going through one of the deepest adjustments in years. Entering March 2026, the national average hog price fell below the 10 yuan per kilogram threshold, reaching a near-seven-year low since 2019.

Against the backdrop of widespread losses across the industry, Muyuan Co., Ltd., the leading hog-breeding company, turned in a “higher revenue but not higher profits” report card. The “countertrend” move of the chairman’s compensation increasing for the second consecutive year has drawn broad market attention.

Hog prices have hit rock bottom—one pound of pork is not as good as a bottle of water.

Data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that in the 3rd week of March 2026, the national hog price had dropped to 11.05 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decline of 28%. In some regions, the ex-farm prices for out-of-three hogs have already fallen below 10 yuan per kilogram, with a cumulative decline of more than 24% within the year. Some market participants joked, “You can’t even buy a pound of pork with a bottle of slightly better mineral water.”

The chill is also evident in the terminal retail market. According to information from “BUG,” after the Spring Festival, pork prices fell further, and current procurement prices have dropped from about 11 yuan per jin in the fourth quarter of last year to around 9 yuan per jin. However, the price cut has not effectively boosted sales. One wholesaler said, “People can’t buy much now, and they can’t eat much meat.”

The hog-to-corn price ratio is a key indicator for measuring breeding profitability. As of the 3rd week of March, the hog-to-feed ratio has fallen to 4.40:1, the lowest level since 2019. It is far below the primary warning line of 5:1, indicating that hog breeding has entered the primary warning zone of excessive downside.

Muyuan Co., Ltd.—fourth-quarter profits shrink by 90%

As the absolute leader in China’s hog-breeding industry, Muyuan’s operating performance is viewed as a barometer for the sector.

In its 2025 annual report released on March 27, the company reported full-year operating revenue of 144.145 billion yuan, up 4.49%; but its net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.487 billion yuan, down 13.39% year over year.

By quarter, the downward trend in performance is even more pronounced. From the first to the fourth quarter of 2025, Muyuan’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.491 billion yuan, 6.039 billion yuan, 4.249 billion yuan, and 0.708 billion yuan, respectively.

This means the company’s profits in the fourth quarter shrank by more than 80% compared with the third quarter, and fell sharply by nearly 90% compared with the second-quarter peak.

Entering 2026, the situation has not improved. In January this year, the company’s average sales price of market hogs was 12.57 yuan per kilogram, down 16.92% year over year; in February it fell further to 11.59 yuan per kilogram, with the year-on-year decline widening to 18.72%. According to calculations, Muyuan’s average breeding cost for January to February 2026 was about 12 yuan per kilogram, and operating losses appeared in February.

Chairman’s annual pay rises two years in a row, starkly at odds with performance

Against the pressure on earnings, changes in executive compensation have become the focus of public attention.

According to financial report data, the annual salary of Qin Yinglin, chairman and president of Muyuan, has increased for two consecutive years. In 2023 it was 2.35 million yuan; in 2024 it rose to 3.7219 million yuan, an increase of 58.38%. In 2025 it further increased to 4.1581 million yuan, up another 11.72% from the previous year.

It is understood that in 2024, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.881 billion yuan, and in 2025 it fell to 15.487 billion yuan. With the company’s profit margins narrowing and losses widespread across the industry, the continued increase in core executives’ compensation has sparked discussion among investors.

Behind the continued price drop of hogs are the dual squeeze of pressure on the supply side and weakness on the demand side.

From the supply side, slow capacity de-stocking is the core reason. By the end of 2025, China’s number of sows kept for breeding (capable of producing piglets) was about 39.61 million head, still above the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ target of 39 million head for normal stock levels. At the same time, the big improvement in breeding efficiency has intensified supply pressure. The industry’s PSY (number of weaned piglets provided per sow per year) has risen from 16.1 in 2018 to 26.34 in 2026, meaning the same number of breeding sows can produce more market hogs.

From the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption enters a traditional off-season, the restaurant industry’s recovery is limited, and end-market purchasing intentions are not strong. A deeper change is the adjustment of consumption structure—pork’s share of meat consumption has fallen from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.9% in 2025. With prices of substitutes such as beef and poultry also moving down, demand for pork is being diverted.

Policy support—when will the turning point come?

In the face of deep industry losses, the policy side has begun to release signals of support.

On March 4, the National Development and Reform Commission together with the Ministry of Finance launched the first round of central storage purchases of frozen pork in 2026, with a total volume of 10,000 tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has also recently clarified stricter capacity control targets: further lowering the target for the normal stock level of sows kept for breeding and implementing an “annual production filing system” for leading breeding companies.

Regarding the turning point in hog prices, multiple institutions have offered forecasts. A research report from Orient Securities said that the number of newly born piglets has been gradually declining since October 2025; based on a 6-month growth cycle, the hog price turning point is expected to appear in April to May 2026.

China Post Securities, meanwhile, analyzed that after May 2025, industry capacity began to de-stock, which means that supply in the second half of 2026 will decrease, and hog prices may enter a new upward cycle.

For breeding companies, whether they can preserve cash flow and control costs at the bottom of the cycle will determine who can last through this long “winter.”

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