Fan Wei: From "Pawnshop Thinking" to "Project Credit," Financing Reform Drives Real Estate Transformation

Ask AI · How should the financing reform shift from collateral reliance to cash-flow assessment?

2026 is the start-up year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan,” and as the real estate industry’s transformation enters a critical period, financing system reform has become an important lever to drive the industry toward high-quality development.

In this year’s Government Work Report, in reviewing the work of 2025, it pointed out: continue to put sustained effort into stabilizing the housing market, reasonably control the supply of incremental land for real estate, apply policies according to local conditions to reduce and adjust restrictive measures, lower the interest rates on personal housing provident fund loans, and complete the “deliver-the-homes” (baojiaofang) task in full. Among this year’s key work priorities, the Government Work Report places real estate-related content under the section “Strengthening risk prevention and resolution in key areas and improving safety capability building.” It clearly proposes an overall tone of “making efforts to stabilize the real estate market,” further highlights the role of the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist制度, and prevents the risk of debt defaults.

On March 16, the Party Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held an expanded meeting, emphasizing the need to further leverage the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist制度 and accelerate the establishment of a financing system that is compatible with the new real estate development model.

Fan Wei, Party Secretary and General Manager of the Fixed-Income Financing Department of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, said that financial institutions are accustomed to relying on the continuous rise of asset prices to cover risks. The National Financial Regulatory Administration’s emphasis on “accelerating the establishment of a financing system compatible with the new real estate development model” is intended to establish a new logic for financial risk control.

The “whitelist” has a dual mission

The real estate project whitelist is a financing support list jointly promoted in January 2024 by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the National Financial Regulatory Administration. It targets projects under construction (non-enterprise entities) and, through city-level mechanisms for coordinating real estate financing, ensures reasonable project financing needs and promotes the “deliver-the-homes” work. Projects selected must meet conditions such as being under construction, collateral matching, closed-loop management, and compliance of pre-sale funds, but the final decision-making authority on financing still belongs to financial institutions.

What effectiveness and roles does the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist制度 play in maintaining stability in the real estate market?

Fan Wei, Party Secretary and General Manager of the Fixed-Income Financing Department of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, said that the core of the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist制度 lies in playing a key role in targeted liquidity support, risk prevention and control, and stabilizing market expectations. It has become an important lever connecting the resolution of real estate risks with industry transformation.

First, it delivers “fresh liquidity” in a precise manner. By strictly selecting projects that are compliant, controllable, and feasible for delivery, it guides financial institutions to set aside specific credit quotas, simplify approval procedures, and open green channels. This promotes high-efficiency and targeted deployment of funds, fully ensures the smooth continuation of construction for projects under construction and on-time delivery, and effectively safeguards homebuyers’ legitimate rights and interests, thereby reinforcing the bottom line of people’s livelihood.

Second, it helps prevent and resolve the dual risks of finance and the industry. By implementing closed management of funds and pushing effective separation of project risks from the real estate developers’ group debts, it enables funds to be used “for their intended purpose only” and to be injected precisely (“targeted irrigation”). This helps orderly clear industry risks. At the same time, it builds an efficient communication bridge among the government, banks, and enterprises to precisely address funding bottlenecks and difficulties at the project level, and to prevent hidden risks such as misappropriation of funds.

Third, it stabilizes expectations for the real estate market. It shifts the “deliver-the-homes” work from an emergency tackling stage to standardized, routine operations, continuously restores consumers’ confidence, and at the same time lays the groundwork for gradually establishing a financing system compatible with the new real estate development model. It also guides the industry’s steady transition from scale expansion toward high-quality development.

From the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist制度 to a financing system “compatible with the new real estate development model,” what new responsibilities must financial institutions in 2026 take on?

Fan Wei believes that the core of the “new real estate development model” is to shift from the past era of “high leverage and fast turnover” scale expansion to a high-quality development stage of “improving stock quality and reconstructing business models.” Specifically, it includes: applying policies according to local conditions to control incremental supply and reduce inventory; optimizing the supply of affordable housing; promoting the construction of “good homes” that are green and smart; and strengthening risk backstops for “deliver-the-homes.” A financing system aligned with this development model requires the financial system to achieve three major transitions in parallel:

First, transition the financing targets—from in the past supporting various real estate developers that acquire land and build, to giving key support to high-quality projects within the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist and stable real estate enterprises, to effectively ensure smooth project delivery and uphold the bottom line of people’s livelihood;

Second, transition the use of financing—from supporting the acquisition of new land and development and construction to focusing on areas such as revitalizing existing stock assets, purchasing and renovating affordable housing, promoting green building, and improving housing quality;

Third, transition financial risk controls—from overly relying on collateral guarantees and growth in scale to placing greater emphasis on the stability of project cash flow, the financial soundness of real estate developers, and the management of substantive risks, strictly preventing the spread and escalation of the risk of debt defaults.

“The transformation of the financial system needs to accelerate. We must both support the healthy development of the real estate industry and effectively prevent and control related risks.” Fan Wei said.

Real estate transformation

In parallel with the transformation of financial institutions, the real estate industry is also accelerating its deep adjustment from “incremental development” to “stock operations.”

“From a long-term development perspective, changes in financial systems have profound strategic significance for reshaping the real estate market.” Fan Wei said that in 2026, the impact of financial system changes on the real estate industry will mainly be reflected in three aspects.

First, build a financial risk firewall. Relying on the hosting bank system and project closed-loop management mechanisms, it has successfully achieved physical isolation and decentralized risk control, shifting risk from the developer group level to the individual project level. This cuts off the transmission chain of systemic risk at the source, and firmly upholds the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risk.

Second, strengthen the foundation of confidence for people’s livelihood. By coordinating and precisely targeting efforts through the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist policies, it supports compliant project financing on a targeted basis, ensuring that owners’ rights and interests are fulfilled on schedule. This effectively repairs market expectations and serves as the anchor that stabilizes the overall housing market.

Third, drive the industry toward high-quality transformation. By innovatively binding the financing system deeply to the standards for “good homes” construction, it guides financial resources toward concentrated development of green, smart, high-quality residential housing. Through market-based means, it compels the industry to move from a “scale race” to a new stage of growth driven by “product strength.”

An expanded meeting of the Party Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held on March 16 has been seen as a clear signal that in 2026, real estate will continue to advance deep transformation.

Fan Wei believes that the timing of this expanded meeting of the Party Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration—held in the opening year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”—is aimed primarily at implementing the spirit of the National Two Sessions, and it clearly demonstrates the regulatory authority’s explicit direction to coordinate and advance risk resolution in the real estate sector and industry transformation. At the same time, the meeting places real estate financial policies within the core task category of “prudently resolving risks in key areas,” and it explicitly emphasizes “further leveraging the role of the ‘deliver-the-homes’ whitelist制度,” while also deploying “accelerating the establishment of a financing system compatible with the new real estate development model.”

More specifically, the above statements have distinct milestone significance in connecting the past with the future. Fan Wei analyzed that this statement provides two substantive steps for financial reform: first, it clarifies that the current core bottom line of financial work is still to ensure that systemic risk does not occur, and that in the real estate sector, risk resolution remains a key focus of regulatory efforts; second, it signifies that the real estate financial support system is moving from serving the old industry model of “high leverage and fast turnover” in the past to systematically serving the new high-quality development stage of “improving stock quality and reconstructing business models.” This deployment continues and deepens previous real estate financial support policies, and is also an official signal that the financing system is transitioning toward being long-term and standardized. The core goal is to build a safer, more precise, and sustainable real estate financial ecosystem, precisely aligning with the central direction of the real estate industry’s transition in the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period—from scale expansion to high-quality development transformation.

“According to the meeting’s spirit and the policy deployments in recent times, the current focus of real estate work centers on directions such as people’s livelihood protection, financing optimization, risk prevention and control, and industry transformation.” Fan Wei said.

Fan Wei further pointed out that to complete the work deployed at the meeting, efforts need to continue in four areas.

First, stick to the bottom line of people’s livelihood, continuously release the effectiveness of the “deliver-the-homes” whitelist制度, increase the efforts in approving and disbursing loans for compliant projects, and strictly prevent the risk of debt defaults. This will effectively safeguard homebuyers’ legitimate rights and interests and reinforce the line of defense for people’s livelihood protection. Second, improve the financing system: accelerate the construction of a financing system that is compatible with the new real estate development model, precisely guide the optimization of financial resource allocation, and shift focus to key areas such as revitalizing stock assets and building affordable housing to strengthen financial support for industry development. Third, optimize the supply structure: persist in policies according to local conditions and classified guidance, strictly implement the direction of “controlling incremental supply, reducing inventory, and ensuring better supply,” actively explore multiple channels to revitalize existing commercial housing stock for use in affordable housing, orderly advance the construction of “good homes,” and continuously improve housing quality and property service levels. Fourth, precisely control risks: strengthen closed-loop cash-flow management and control at both the real estate enterprise and project levels; firmly restrain incremental risk, and resolve existing stock risks in an orderly manner. Deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, precisely support reasonable housing needs for couples forming marriages for the first time, first-time childbirth, and families with multiple children, strictly maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic risk, and drive the industry’s steady transition to high-quality development.

(Author: Li Xiaodan)