The phased "disenchantment" of gold's safe-haven function! Why are funds flocking to the CSI 300 ETF?

Regional conflicts escalate, triggering violent swings in oil prices; behind this, global stagflation—and even recession—expectations are lurking, continuously weighing on overall market risk appetite.

But gold’s safe-haven role has been “de-mystified”—it doesn’t rise but falls instead. Gold ETFs have not only seen their net asset values fall in succession, but their holdings have also continued to be withdrawn. HuAan (518880.SH), the largest gold ETF in the market by size, has had net outflows of more than RMB 3.8 billion over the past 5 days.

As for the reasons, it is mainly due to the transmission effect of tightening liquidity. On the one hand, because gold had risen sharply in the earlier period, when risk appetite declines, gold—an easily liquidated asset with good liquidity—takes the brunt of selling. On the other hand, market expectations that inflationary pressure will force central banks in different countries to tighten policy have pushed up real interest rates, which is also a negative for gold.

By comparison, China’s asset core representative indexes—balanced large-cap broad-based ETFs, such as the CSI 300 ETF—have attracted large capital inflows. Among them, the CSI 300 ETF Huaxia (510330.SH) has received substantial net subscriptions over the past 5 days. Over the past 5 days, the top five CSI 300 ETFs combined for net inflows of more than RMB 3.6 billion; over the past 10 days, net inflows have exceeded RMB 10 billion. They rank among the top in the entire market.

Data show that over the past decade, the mid-range market-cap share within the CSI 300 surged from 17.3% to 39.3%. This objectively confirms the trend of macro industrial upgrading and the transition from old to new driving forces. However, its 96% overseas growth increment still mainly comes from the endogenous growth of core “old blue-chip” holdings, demonstrating strong bottom-holding resilience. The CSI 300 index’s “balanced structure” of old and new leaders provides a dual-engine choice for large capital seeking steady and balanced outcomes—taking both the “overseas dividend” and “domestic demand stability” into account.

Daily Economic News