Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Penghua rises nearly 1%, global electrolytic aluminum supply contraction risk intensifies

On the news front, on the 28th, UAE-based Global Aluminium Industry Company said that its plant in Abu Dhabi was attacked by Iran; on the 29th, Bahrain Aluminium Company also confirmed that some of its facilities were attacked by Iran. Since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, global aluminum supply has been hit, and London aluminum futures prices have risen significantly.

Institutions point out that aluminum should be positioned first, while copper is the value. On the commodities side, in the short term, follow the dynamics of the U.S.-Iran situation closely and focus on opportunities for aluminum to catch up after a rebound. In the medium to long term, the economic trough and deglobalization promote optimization of the supply-demand structure, and the trend has not changed: 1）In the short term, although the U.S.-Iran conflict has triggered concerns about inflation and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded to its highest level since July 2025, suppressing the outlook for economic recovery, industrial metals have not yet returned to an upward channel. However, considering that since the rate-cut trade in August 2025, supply and demand on both ends for high-quality resources such as copper and aluminum have shown clear industrial changes, commodity prices are highly likely to have support. Meanwhile, with the Strait of Hormuz continuing to be blocked, the risk of a break in the Middle East aluminum supply chain keeps accumulating, so pay attention to aluminum price follow-on rebound opportunities. 2）In the medium term, unless the U.S.-Iran conflict persists beyond expectations, rate cuts led by the Federal Reserve and the resulting global trend of looser financial conditions can still promote an upturn in the copper and aluminum cycle. 3）In the long term, deglobalization intensifies countries’ competition for resources, and the central trend for copper and aluminum is moving upward.

On the equities side, aluminum should be positioned first, while copper holds value: From a cycle perspective, although the U.S.-Iran conflict is difficult to predict, on the one hand, if we work backward based on reasonable valuation, the market caps of leading copper and aluminum companies imply a relatively large safety margin regarding their commodity positioning, so value remains prominent. On the other hand, regardless of whether it is stagflation or recovery, electrolytic aluminum benefits, which is worth paying special attention to—especially because pullbacks driven by sentiment can present opportunities at low levels.

From a value perspective, the equity value of copper and aluminum will ultimately be reappraised: 1）The long-term central tendency for commodities is stable-to-upward. Against the backdrop of deglobalization, the price central tendency of growth-oriented resource products such as copper and aluminum is lifted. First, from the monetary perspective, current U.S. tariff policies and other losses erode confidence in the dollar, and when facing global uncertainty, monetary easing is very likely the certain option. Second, from the supply-demand perspective, under the influence of factors such as national security, nationalism, and resource depletion, the supply of resource products such as copper and aluminum is obstructed and costs are pushed higher—this is the general trend. Third, with the rapid development of AI, it strongly boosts global power demand, and copper and aluminum—whose supply-demand is also affected accordingly—benefit as well. 2）Using growth or dividends for risk compensation—domestic copper and aluminum valuations are generally lower than overseas, and both the growth attributes of copper in China and the dividend attributes of aluminum in China help to lift valuation.

As of 09:45 on March 30, 2026, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) rose strongly by 1.15%. Among constituent stocks, Tianshan Aluminum rose 9.99%, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. rose 7.69%, Nanshan Aluminum rose 7.12%, and stocks such as China Aluminum and Shenhuo Co., Ltd. also followed higher. The Penghua CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals ETF (159162) rose 0.96%, and its latest price was 0.84 yuan.

The Penghua CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index. The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index selects securities of 30 large-cap listed companies involved in industries such as copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare earth metals as index samples, to reflect the overall performance of listed companies under the industrial nonferrous metals theme.

According to data, as of February 27, 2026, the top ten weight stocks of the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) were respectively Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, Xingye Silver Tin, Xiamen Tungsten, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Tongling Nonferrous, Sinoway New Materials (CW) Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Copper, and Western Mining. The combined share of the top ten weight stocks was 54.37%.