Standard Chartered: If oil prices continue to surge, the Hang Seng Index may see 21,500. There is a 30% chance that Middle East conflict will be prolonged, leading to a pessimistic scenario.

SighingCashier · 2026-03-30T18:53:17+00:00

Standard Chartered predicts that if the Middle East conflict continues, the Hang Seng Index may decline to the range of 21,500 to 22,500 points, but there is a 70% chance that tensions will eventually ease, and within 12 months, it is expected to rebound to the range of 28,000 to 29,000 points.

SighingCashier

2026-03-30 18:53:17

Abstract generation in progress

March 31, 2026

Standard Chartered: If oil prices continue to surge, the Hang Seng Index could be seen at 21,500
There is a 30% chance that the fighting in the Middle East will be prolonged; entering a pessimistic scenario

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Even after a full month since the Iran-U.S. war began, there is still no end in sight. However, Standard Chartered believes there is as high as a 70% chance that the conflict will ultimately last only for the majority of the next few weeks and then ease. Within the next 12 months, the Hang Seng Index has the potential to rebound to the 28,000 to 29,000 point range. That said, the bank also does not rule out a 30% chance that this war will last longer, triggering a subsequent pullback of the Hang Seng Index to the 21,500 to 22,500 point range. Standard Chartered’s analysis noted that both sides in the Iran-U.S. conflict do not expect the confrontation to last too long; the bank’s base scenario …

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