Galaxy Futures: The ongoing US-Iran conflict is expected to keep methanol prices predominantly on a firm upward trend.

Methyl alcohol plants in the current Iran region are still fully shut down, and daily output has fallen from 23,000 tons to around 1,200 tons. Market news says that some units have resumed operations, but production remains relatively low. As the war continues, concerns in the domestic market about the impact of a significant reduction in future import volumes are growing. With the hot war ongoing and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasting too long, inventories in the East China and South China regions have begun to be depleted rapidly. As of March 18, 2026, total port inventory stands at 1.2617 million tons, down 511,000 tons from the previous period. In March, 80,000 tons were loaded for shipment; in April, imports are expected to fall to around 600,000 tons. The current pace of destocking at ports exceeds 300,000 tons. The shortage of domestic methanol supply is becoming increasingly evident, and methanol supply in Southeast Asia is also affected. There, methanol is nearly 100 USD higher than in China. Against the backdrop of the huge price spread, the likelihood of methanol exports increases, further intensifying the domestic supply tightness. Meanwhile, downstream MTO units that had been idled earlier have started looking for feedstock to restart; supply tightness and demand replenishment will accelerate port destocking. As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues, it is expected that methanol will remain mostly on the strong side. (Galaxy Futures)