【03/30】Main trend receding, funds attempt a weak recovery

Market[Taojuba]

Index Structure
The three major indexes opened lower; only after early-morning differences in the SSE Composite did the market start repairing and turning red around 10:30, with volume picking up and a small positive candle standing above the 5-day moving average;
Trading value was 1.92 trillion, an increase of +638 billion, still not breaking above 2 trillion;
The index action is more of a stop-the-fall structure rather than a valid push—each sector is undergoing passive repair;

Sentiment Performance
There were 62 limit-up stocks, 10 limit-down stocks, and 12 stocks achieving consecutive-limit boards; the board-break rate shows sentiment weakening and turning more divergent;
Yu Neng and Huadian hit limit-down; with the market’s top stocks showing heavy divergence, the consecutive-limit board upgrade rate is under 20%, and high-level sentiment is cooling off;

Capital Structure
It’s in the retreat direction—counting power generation (算电), power, and new energy. Impacted by Huadian’s limit-down, the overall power sector broadly fell again by -4.78; old-cycle capital has started concentrated profit-taking, and many stocks hit limit-down;
Thematic capital is trying aerospace and computing power. There’s an expectation that domestic computing power could be decoupled from power, and aerospace shows a bit of intraday consistency;
Hedging capital returned to precious metals, agriculture, and the pharmaceuticals sector. Precious metals still follow the commodity price increase logic; agriculture acts as a hedging/defense play; power subsidies; and pharmaceuticals are facing hostile acceleration;
Trend capital remains active in optical communication, with a rebound in the sector. Changfei Optics Fiber has made a new trend high. Other AI computing power performances are lackluster—more like a weak extension of the trend;

Sector Structure
Computing Power / Power (main line retreat)
Hua Dian and Yu Neng hit limit-down. After a Guangxi early-morning template, capital quickly sold off and then the whole day saw a one-way selloff in power with no follow-through or repair behavior—confirming the retreat phase;
Guangxi Guangli Network (贵广网络) rotated and advanced to a 2-board with turnover. At low positions, cloud and computing such as YunSai ZhI Lian (云赛智联) got to their first boards. After the index rebound, many computing-power stocks synchronized in disconnecting from the power negative feedback—this counts as a localized attempt to repair, but after the initial burst there isn’t enough momentum. We’ll need to watch whether there’s any outperformance later;

AI / Computing Power
After trend capital retreats, there’s weak repair, but only optical communication is independently showing strength—Changfei hits a new trend high. Offshore tech expectations are still weak, so here the optical fiber is more about an on-exchange chip advantage, without a clear expectation of continuation. Optical communication should be the final “swing” of the computing-power trend;

Hedging
Precious metals (aluminum), agriculture (Fujian), and pharmaceuticals have some strength, but this is driven by news stimulation plus hedging triggers; on terms of strength, it can’t provide a sustained continuation expectation;

Aerospace
The main line is retreating. Thematic capital is looking for directions other than power and computing power to try to bring momentum, and aerospace is passively absorbing the active capital. Shenjian has chemical industrial exposure (化工), and ZaiSheng has Su fiber (苏纤维) — the sector strength is more like passive follow-through. Also, it spread too much on day one, and focus is weak, so it can’t provide a consistent continuation expectation;

Summary
Hua Dian hit limit-down; the consecutive-limit upgrade rate is getting lower. After the main line retreats, themes have entered a low-position trial-and-error stage. Repair strength is weak, and there is no main line;
Domestic computing power and aerospace both showed localized attempt actions today, but they remain at recognizable single stocks from the old cycle and didn’t form a new structure. Treat it as the market’s trial-and-error—at present, it can’t give a main-line expectation;

Tuesday Outlook
Main line retreats. Trading value is under 2 trillion, and there is no consistent main line during the day. On Tuesday, it’s likely there will be continued divergence;
To turn into an effective repair, we need the emergence of main-line structure direction. Also, the consecutive-limit board ladder needs to recover. From what we see now, the probability is relatively low;
Watch
1、Whether a strong repair appears in the early session—look for a resonance main line;
2、Whether optical communication continues to strengthen—trend capital action;
3、Consecutive-limit upgrade rate—strength of sentiment repair;

Tuesday Outlook
Main line retreats. Trading value is under 2 trillion, and there is no consistent main line during the day. On Tuesday, it’s likely there will be continued divergence;
To turn into an effective repair, we need the emergence of main-line structure direction. Also, the consecutive-limit board ladder needs to recover. From what we see now, the probability is relatively low;
Watch
1、Whether a strong repair appears in the early session—look for a resonance main line;
2、Whether optical communication continues to strengthen—trend capital action;
3、Consecutive-limit upgrade rate—strength of sentiment repair;