【Company News】Moving Forward with Confidence, Breaking New Ground — United Ratings 2026 China Bond Market Credit Risk Outlook Forum Successfully Concludes

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On the afternoon of March 26, 2026, the “Harness Momentum and Break Through to Create a New Beginning—United Credit’s 2026 China Bond Market Credit Risk Outlook Forum” was successfully held in Beijing. The event was hosted by United Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (hereinafter “United Credit”), and co-organized by United Ratings International Co., Ltd., United Credit Rating Co., Ltd., and United Credit Investment & Advisory Co., Ltd. Guests—more than a hundred representatives from banks, insurance companies, securities firms, funds, and other institutions—attended the forum in person. On various online platforms, including Cloud Live, Sina Finance, Baidu News, Phoenix Finance, Wind, Eastmoney (and its “Thoth” platform), Choice, and others, the total number of views exceeded 1 million.

Mr. Wan Huawei, President of United Credit, delivered the opening remarks. Mr. Wan Huawei said that in 2025, the global economy rebounded with difficulty and China’s economy developed steadily. The bond market’s outstanding balance remained the second-largest in the world. The “Technology Sector” segment of the bond market was launched with great fanfare. Regulatory authorities continued to increase oversight of the rating industry, further reinforcing the legal responsibilities of rating agencies.

Facing multiple tests from both internal and external environments, China’s rating industry is accelerating its digital and intelligent transformation, actively exploring an intelligent agent collaborative work system based on large AI models, and human-machine collaboration has become the industry mainstream. At the same time, rating agencies are actively building a science and technology innovation (STI) rating system; they have rolled out methodologies for rating STI enterprises and STI bonds, deeply integrating with the national strategy of innovation-driven development. In addition, Chinese rating agencies are accelerating their internationalization efforts, continuously enhancing their participation in and discourse power within international capital markets.

United Credit President Wan Huawei

Dr. Ai Renzhi, Vice President of United Credit, delivered a keynote speech titled “A New Credit Picture Under the Reshaping of Global Order—2026 Global Credit Risk Outlook.” Dr. Ai Renzhi believes that policy choices among major global economies are becoming a key variable in reshaping the international order, and geopolitical conflicts are the primary risks facing the world in 2026. Middle East geopolitical risks may enter an uncontrollable high-risk zone. While the global economy shows resilience, its underlying foundation remains fragile. Expansionary fiscal policies in multiple countries have led to both high deficits and high debt, and fiscal sustainability faces severe challenges. In 2026, global asset allocation needs to incorporate a dual framework of geopolitical security and credit reconstruction, calibrating the global credit picture amid the reshaping of the order.

Dr. Ai Renzhi, Vice President of United Credit

Mr. Lin Qing, General Manager of the Research and Development Department of United Credit, then delivered a keynote speech titled “2026 Bond Market Outlook: Steady Advancement and Quality Improvement, with Structural Divergence.” Ms. Lin Qing said that in 2025, the scale of China’s bond market continued to expand, and the STI bond market entered a stage of faster development. Credit risk exposure in the bond market remained at a historical low level. Looking ahead to 2026, bond issuance will grow steadily. Credits in areas such as STI are expected to further expand, and overall credit risk in the bond market will remain controllable. Key areas to focus on include non-standard credit risks of urban investment companies in weak regions and with weak asset quality; credit risks of enterprises in the real estate industry chain; and credit risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions facing high operational pressure and limited capital replenishment.

Mr. Lin Qing, General Manager of the Research and Development Department of United Credit

Ms. Zhang Li, Director of Public Rating at United Credit, delivered a keynote speech titled “Urban Investment Platform Transformation and Credit Outlook Under the Guidance of the ‘Fifteenth Five-Year Plan’.” Ms. Zhang Li believes that while deepening deleveraging and debt reduction has advanced with phased results, localized liquidity pressure remains. In the future, it will shift to a normal-phase stage focused on resolving risks in operating liabilities. How will credit risk for urban investment platforms evolve? Under the transformation of the economic growth model and the drive of regulatory policies, the urgency of urban investment platforms’ market-oriented transformation becomes even more prominent. The纲要 of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” provides direction for their transformation and development, and credit differentiation will also unfold accordingly.

Ms. Zhang Li, Director of Public Rating at United Credit

Dr. Chen Yihui, Director of the Postdoctoral Workstation Office at United Credit, delivered a keynote speech titled “How to Identify ‘True STI and Hard STI’ More Effectively,” and unveiled the “United Credit STI Competitiveness List.” Dr. Chen Yihui said that how to identify truly STI enterprises and hard STI enterprises is a major challenge facing technology and finance today. Based on the characteristics of STI enterprises, United Credit introduced distinctive indicators such as total factor STI productivity, the number of active users, communication and influence, and the importance of the track. It conducted a scientific analysis of STI enterprise competitiveness, precisely identifying true STI enterprises and hard STI enterprises, and then selected the top 50 STI-competitiveness enterprises on the NEEQ (Beijing Stock Exchange) accordingly. The statistical results show that STI competitiveness of listed companies is significantly and positively correlated with market value. The portfolio performance of the top 50 STI-competitiveness stocks on the NEEQ is significantly better than that of other asset portfolios.

Dr. Chen Yihui, Director of the Postdoctoral Workstation Office at United Credit

After that, the forum moved into a roundtable discussion segment. Dr. Ai Renzhi, Vice President of United Credit, chaired a roundtable discussion titled “New Quality Productive Forces and Institutional Openness—Opportunities and Challenges for the Bond Market.” The guests included Han Sheng, Director of Fixed Income Research at Minsheng Jiayin Fund; Gao Junjie, CEO of United International; Li Xiaojian, Director of Industrial and Commercial Rating at United Credit; Yu Lei, Director of Research at United Consulting; and Zhang Zhen, a macro research analyst in the sovereign department at United Credit. The guests discussed the opportunities and risks that developing new quality productive forces will bring to the bond market, covering topics such as the performance of key industries, trends in the macroeconomy, and how international geopolitical conflicts affect bond markets inside and outside China. The insightful remarks and stimulating exchanges among the guests earned recognition from both the in-person audience and online participants.

Roundtable Forum Venue

In the second half of the forum, Tan Xinyuan, Technology Director of the Department of Industrial and Commercial Rating at United Credit, first delivered a keynote speech titled “Move Toward the ‘New’—The ‘Break’ and ‘Build’ in the Potential Blue Ocean of STI Bonds and the Credit Analysis Framework Under the ‘Fifteenth Five-Year Plan’.” Mr. Tan Xinyuan said that the “2026 Government Work Report” once again reaffirmed the core position of new quality productive forces. In 2026, the STI bond market entered the “year of qualitative change,” with the scale of outstanding balances growing substantially and the level of participation from all sides improving significantly. Focusing on the blue ocean opportunities in the STI bond market during the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, overcoming the difficulties in credit analysis for STI enterprises, reconstructing the credit rating system for STI enterprises, and enabling a transition from “looking at past debt-servicing” to “looking at future growth,” the efforts aim to help address financing challenges faced by STI enterprises.

Tan Xinyuan, Technology Director of the Department of Industrial and Commercial Rating at United Credit

Chen Xutong, Deputy General Manager of the Department of Financial Rating at United Credit, delivered a keynote speech titled “Under the New Setup of the ‘Fifteenth Five-Year Plan’: Resolving Risks and Reconstructing Credit for Small and Medium-Sized Banks.” Ms. Chen Xutong believes that the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” clarifies the acceleration of building a financial power, improving risk disposal mechanisms for small and medium-sized financial institutions, enriching risk disposal resources and tools, and advancing risk resolution in an overall coordinated manner. Against this backdrop, small and medium-sized banks continue to follow the mainline of reducing quantity and improving quality. The effectiveness of disposal paths—such as mergers and restructurings, targeted assistance, and market-oriented exit—has become evident. Overall industry risk is converging, the number of high-risk institutions has dropped significantly, and systemic risk remains controllable. Looking ahead, as financial risk management further deepens, the industry’s overall capability to withstand risks will continue to strengthen.

Chen Xutong, Deputy General Manager of the Department of Financial Rating at United Credit

Huang Lu, a senior analyst of the Second Department of Industrial and Commercial Rating at United Credit, delivered a keynote speech titled “At the Start of the ‘Fifteenth Five-Year Plan’: Power Digitization and Intelligent Connectivity—A New Journey for a Green Start—Outlook on the Development of AI and Computing Power Integration in the Power Industry.” Ms. Huang Lu pointed out that the state requires continuous advancement of the green energy transition, implementing power-computing coordination, supported by the construction of power grid corridors and the digitization and intelligence development of power systems, so as to strengthen the industrial support role of electricity. In the context of the rapid growth of computing power today, AI & computing power, as an “intelligent brain,” can manage the uncertainty of new power systems. Meanwhile, as energy infrastructure, electricity determines the competitive landscape of the computing power industry. The two integrate with each other to form a brand-new value chain of “electricity, computing, carbon, and digital services.”

Huang Lu, a senior analyst of the Second Department of Industrial and Commercial Rating at United Credit

Finally, Li Weifeng, Director of United International, delivered a keynote speech titled “Internationalization of Chinese Rating Agencies to Help Develop the Chinese Offshore Bond Market,” bringing the forum to a successful close. Mr. Li Weifeng believes that in recent years, the degree of two-way opening of China’s bond market has continued to deepen. As an important part of “going global,” the Chinese offshore bond market has, after undergoing deep adjustment from 2022 to 2023, shown a continuing warming trend. Two-way opening of the bond market provides an opportunity for the international development of Chinese rating agencies. As an important carrier for United Credit’s “going global,” United International will continue to contribute to the development of the Chinese offshore bond market by continuously enhancing rating quality and driving innovation.

Li Weifeng, Director of United International

The 2026 China Bond Market Credit Risk Forum by United Credit closely centers on the development trends of China’s bond market under the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan.” With a global view of the world economy, it covers a rich and diverse range of topics, provides solid arguments and viewpoints, draws on others’ strengths, and is inclusive. It offers an outlook on the future development trend of China’s bond market, proposes innovative solutions to multiple credit risk dilemmas, and provides valuable reference opinions for issuers, investors, and all parties in the market. The forum received widespread praise from attendees. Move with momentum and break through to create a new beginning—the forum concluded successfully amid warm applause.

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