Just now, the bull market top signal update ~ March 26, 2026 Market Temperature

(Source: Wangjing Boge Investing)

Reposted from: Wangjing Boge Investing

Let me say a few things about the market and my feelings:

(1) ETF live trading account: today I’m down -34,000;

(2) Taobao live trading account: today I’m down -75,000;

(3) Two accounts combined: total expected loss is -109,000, with an estimated profit/loss ratio of -1.35%.

On Monday I lost -201,000, on Tuesday I gained +150,000, on Wednesday I gained +87,000, and on Thursday I lost -109,000. This week I lost -73,000.

Just when this week turned green yesterday, today it got hit again—I really have a hard time with this~

(2) Market sentiment is just too bad

Just after Kuaishou announced it would increase AI investment, the stock price immediately plunged.

Kuaishou earnings guidance:

• Estimated group-wide total capital expenditures (Capex) for 2026: about RMB 26 billion

• Additional investment versus 2025: RMB 11 billion more (about RMB 15 billion in 2025)

• All the incremental investment is 100% focused on AI: everything is used to support AI business’s explosive growth

Now the market has basically formed a pattern: whenever a listed company says it’s stepping up AI, the stock price will most likely fall first—just to be polite.

At its core, it’s because market sentiment is too weak.

When the market is doing well, the same kind of news would be interpreted as the company following the trend, with big future upside—so it should command a higher valuation.

But now everyone only believes one thing: the money is definitely going to be spent, yet the returns are still a long way off.

Increasing AI investment = increasing future uncertainty

How bad is sentiment right now?

Right now, market funds only dare to run toward the place with the highest certainty. For example, regardless of which company is doing models, none can do without computing power, and the computing power shortage is basically an open secret—so funds crowd into trading the computing-power demand chain: chips, optical modules, energy storage, electricity, and so on.

Sigh, the market has completely lost its dreams—it only looks at certain money in the near term.

(3) Signals that a bull market has topped

There’s a very reliable signal for a bull market topping—a big sell-off by equity funds.

Based on historical experience, equity funds add net 500 billion to 600 billion units in a single month. That’s basically the signal that money is rushing in crazily and the market will likely top soon.

So Boge watches the data from the Asset Management Association every month, calculating the changes in share holdings of equity funds.

The latest data as of the end of February is out:

Across the whole market, equity-related funds added 70.67 billion units in February.

Breaking it down: Stock funds +1.42 billion units, hybrid funds +36.40 billion units, FOF +32.85 billion units, with FOF showing the largest increase.

Also, Association data can’t distinguish the偏股 (equity-heavy) proportion within hybrid funds, but combining comprehensive information we judge that the February incremental amount is mainly driven by fixed income + strategies; most are debt-heavy hybrids, and the truly equity-heavy incremental amount is actually limited.

In summary, Boge believes the current data is still far from the top-tipping threshold of 500 billion units.

This also matches the market pullback in March. It wasn’t that the market entered a bubble stage; the main reason was the conflict in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, which led to broad declines in various assets and, in turn, intensified pessimistic sentiment.

Next, we’ll focus on the Middle East situation:

• If things ease in the near term, then what’s happening now is very likely a temporary low point;

• If it continues to build, pessimism could form a negative feedback loop, and the market may fall into a temporary lull.

Well, let’s take it one step at a time. Boge will also keep updating the [Bull market top signals] going forward, so everyone can track and use them as a reference together.

Everything above is Boge’s personal viewpoint. If you have any thoughts, feel free to leave a comment~

(4) Boge Market Temperature

Today’s temperature:

Mainland A-shares: 64.92 degrees today, down -1.00 degree versus the previous trading day;

Hong Kong shares: 45.65 degrees today, down -2.00 degrees versus the previous trading day;

Special note:

(1) The market thermometer is the core reference indicator, mainly used to judge roughly where the market is currently positioned.

(2) Reference buy/sell strategy: you can gradually buy below 30 degrees, and gradually sell above 50 degrees.

(3) Important reminder: “Start buying” ≠ immediately go all-in; “Start selling” ≠ immediately liquidate everything.

The specific products to buy/sell, execution methods, and position ratios vary from person to person. You can refer to Boge’s practical approach.

Around 8:40 every evening, Boge posts the [Today’s live trading profit/loss] and the [Thermometer]. However, because the platform article rules require: only one article can be proactively pushed per day.

A MACD golden cross signal has formed—these stocks are showing strong momentum!

			
			
			

			

			
			

			
			
			
			

            
            
            

                

                

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