CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Overnight London aluminum surged significantly, and Shanghai aluminum continued to rise.

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are ongoing. Qatar Aluminium (Qatalum) is expected to complete production cuts by the end of March at the latest, impacting 650,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity. Oman’s Sohar aluminum plant and Bahrain Aluminium have made production-cut preparations at any time, involving capacity of around 2 million tons. Currently, the number of vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to single digits; subsequent effects will impact the transport of some aluminum ingots. In the short term, the event is supportive for the market. Both U.S. employment data and non-manufacturing PMI data came in better than expected; combined with the conflicts, oil prices may remain at high levels for the long term, further exacerbating overseas inflation. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have also weakened, and macro sentiment is repeatedly tugged between bulls and bears. From a fundamentals perspective, new domestic capacity is gradually coming online, and supply pressure is increasing slightly. Electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to exceed 1.3 million tons, with a peak around mid-March. In the spot market, traders have relatively bullish sentiment; after aluminum prices rise, spot purchasing sentiment generally becomes average. In the short term, supply concerns are the main driver logic, and prices are likely to trade on the stronger side. (CITIC Securities Futures)