Farewell to the 1499 yuan era! Feitian Maotai retail price increases to activate the "market-driven" mode. Can this open up new pricing space?

At the evening of March 30, Guizhou Moutai released a major matters announcement. Starting from March 31, 2026, the sales contract price (ex-factory price) of Feitian 53%vol 500ml Guizhou Moutai Liquor (2026) will be adjusted from 1169 yuan per bottle to 1269 yuan per bottle, and the self-operated system’s retail price will be adjusted from 1499 yuan per bottle to 1539 yuan per bottle. It has been only a little more than two and a half years since the ex-factory price was last raised to 1169 yuan per bottle.

The reporter from 《The Economic Daily News · Coming Into Wine》 noticed that from 2022 to 2024, the company’s actual production capacity remained stable at 56,000 tons for three consecutive years, with virtually no increment; meanwhile, the market wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has been continuously declining since last year. If volume cannot increase and prices are under pressure again, to achieve the set performance targets, it seems that only the pricing route remains.

On the other hand, this announcement clearly states that the retail price of Feitian Moutai in the self-operated channels will be adjusted to 1539 yuan per bottle. From the shift of i Moutai’s “guidance price” to the retail price, to raising it from 1499 yuan to 1539 yuan, it not only signals that the 1499 yuan “guidance price,” which had been in use for eight years, has been thoroughly broken, but also means that the Feitian Moutai price has formally entered a “prices follow the market” stage.

Since this time no terminal prices for the dealer/distributor system have been specified, does this mean that dealers can also set prices freely? How much incremental contribution to this year’s performance will this price increase bring? After breaking the 1499 yuan ceiling, where will market pricing go? Are the market-oriented reforms that Moutai has repeatedly emphasized truly taking a key step? What is the magnitude of the impact on the industry?

A restrained increase in the ex-factory price of nearly 9%

Price adjustment at the end of the first quarter covers full-year performance

But the contribution may be limited

“Protecting prices can control volume; this year’s performance is guaranteed.” When discussing Guizhou Moutai’s current price hike, a broker analyst said bluntly.

Distilleries are accustomed to raising prices during off-seasons, but Moutai chose the end of the first quarter this time. The previous price increase occurred in November 2023. At that time, the boost to that year’s performance was limited, and the real dividend was released in 2024. This time, however, the price increase falls right at the close of the first quarter within the year, meaning the price-increase effect will fully cover performance for the entire year, and the uplift to the profit and loss statement is evidently more direct.

In 2024, the first full year after the previous round of price hikes, Guizhou Moutai achieved total operating revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, up 15.66%; attributable net profit to shareholders was 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38%. On top of a high base, the company has maintained double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for the eighth consecutive year.

But the chill from industry adjustments has not dissipated. In 2025, the company lowered its target for total operating revenue growth to 9%; in the first three quarters, the actual growth rates of revenue and net profit were only 6.32% and 6.25%, respectively.

On the other hand, the market wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has been steadily falling since last year, while the company’s actual production capacity from 2022 to 2024 has remained stable at around 56,000 tons for three consecutive years. With volume unable to increase and prices again under pressure, to meet the set performance targets, it seems that only the pricing route is left.

However, the contribution of this price increase to performance may be limited.

After the previous price hike, multiple brokerages estimated that this single item would have thickened the company’s 2024 profits by more than 4.5 billion yuan. But this time, the力度 was clearly more restrained.

Looking back at the nine rounds of ex-factory price increases since Moutai’s listing, none of the increase rates has been below 15%, and the per-bottle increase amount has ranged between 50 and 200 yuan. In this round, the per-bottle increase is only 100 yuan, an increase rate of less than 9%. Compared with the previous round’s 200 yuan per bottle and a 20% increase, it seems more “restrained.”

The above brokerage forecast that after the price increase, it would be expected to bring about around 2% growth in performance.

But the logic of adjusting prices has never been only about the profit line. Industry analysis suggests that for manufacturers, price adjustment itself is not simply aimed at profit growth; rather, it is to make product pricing align more closely with the real market situation, so that price signals are more transparent and effective. Through a precise choice of timing and adjustments to the scientific mechanism for interest allocation, Moutai not only further strengthens the foundation for its long-term development, but also sets a benchmark for an industry currently undergoing cyclical adjustment—rather than burning itself up in a price war, it is better to reshape a transparent and stable pricing system through channel transformation and digital tools.

“Guidance price” becomes “retail price”

Feitian Moutai truly enters “prices follow the market”

For the market, the performance elasticity brought by this adjustment may be less than in the past, but more importantly, it lies in: Moutai has taken a key step in its market-oriented reform. In addition to raising the ex-factory price, it also clearly increased the self-operated system’s retail price by 40 yuan to 1539 yuan per bottle.

“The essence is marketization of prices—prices follow the market.” A distributor told the reporter that adjusting the ex-factory price itself does not count as marketization, but scrapping the 1499 yuan guidance price that has been used for many years is the core change. This is the first time Moutai has adjusted its market guidance price since 2018.

In his view, in the past few years, Moutai has raised ex-factory prices multiple times, but faced with the market, it has still “fixed” prices at 1499 yuan by using the guidance price. In January this year, when i Moutai went live with Moutai liquor products, it had already changed the previous “guidance price” to the “retail price,” but the price of Feitian Moutai remained fixed at 1499 yuan per bottle.

And this time’s increase in the retail price officially bids farewell to the 1499 yuan per-bottle price that has been executed for eight years, which will be a landmark move indicating that the Feitian Moutai price is entering the “prices follow the market” stage. It may also imply that its price in the future will be adjusted at any time based on market supply and demand.

In addition, what is particularly worth paying attention to is that this company only clearly specifies the retail prices of the self-operated system and does not impose hard requirements on the terminal prices of the dealer/distributor system. This may leave space for dealers to set prices freely based on market conditions.

Since Moutai proposed a market-oriented transformation at the end of last year, an important move has been to clearly label the prices of all products as “retail prices” on the “i Moutai” platform. Defining the terminal price as a “retail price” reflects Moutai’s intention to regain pricing power from the market, avoid abnormal price fluctuations, and at the same time set a reasonable range for channel profits.

Breaking the guidance price of 1499 yuan is equivalent to opening up new pricing space for distributors. The above distributor further explained that previously they were not allowed to sell below the guidance price; now that restriction is gone, and in the future they can decide exactly how much to sell for entirely according to market demand. It also cannot be ruled out that Moutai will adjust according to market dynamics in the future, while the company can also control volume through i Moutai to maintain price stability.

Moutai executives have repeatedly emphasized that they need to protect distributors’ reasonable profits. And in the company’s announcement on January 14 of this year, the company stated clearly that under the distribution model, sales contract prices will be scientifically and reasonably calculated and dynamically adjusted according to factors such as operating costs, operating difficulty, operating risk, service capability, and so on, for different products and different channels.

Industry analysis has pointed out that this series of actions shows that the purpose of Moutai’s reform is absolutely not to drive distributors out or disrupt existing channel systems, but to clarify the functional division and profit distribution between manufacturers and distributors through a more transparent pricing mechanism and dynamic adjustments, ultimately ensuring reasonable returns for the channel side.

Leading liquor companies generally “adjust downward” pricing

Why did Moutai choose to “increase upward” against the trend?

The timing of Moutai’s pricing adjustment also sharply contrasts with peers.

Since 2025, China’s liquor industry has entered a deep-water zone where three phases overlap: “policy adjustments, consumption transformation, and stock competition.” Channel inventories have been high, and price inversions have become common across the industry. Distributor profits are thin or even turning into losses.

According to the 《2025 China Baijiu Market Midterm Research Report》, in the first half of 2025, the three price bands with the most severe price inversions were, in order: 800-1500 yuan, 500-800 yuan, and 300-500 yuan, among which the products priced in the 500-800 yuan band face the most difficulty surviving. The reporter noted that the 500-800 yuan band is precisely the core battleground for top-tier baijiu just below the very top, and it is also the main product price band within this round of centralized ex-factory price adjustments by leading liquor companies.

And in order to truly ease channel pressure, since last year, many leading liquor companies—including Wuliangye, Xijiu, and Langjiu—have lowered the ex-factory prices of their core products, or achieved “indirect price cuts” through channel subsidies and quota adjustments, covering multiple price bands including high-end and mid-to-high-end categories.

While the industry generally “adjusts downward,” Moutai chose “upward.” What logic is this based on?

Industry analysis believes that, unlike other liquor companies relying on channel destocking growth through pushing inventory, Moutai’s production capacity has remained stable at 56,000 tons for three consecutive years with virtually no room for increase. Although terminal demand has been affected and fluctuated by the broader environment, the rigid demand in core scenarios such as high-end gifting, collecting, and banquets remains. When supply cannot expand but demand still has support, raising prices is no longer a risky move—it is a re-pricing of scarcity.

Baijiu expert Xiao Zhuching believes that, from an industry perspective, Moutai’s counter-trend price adjustment releases a clear signal: top brands still have the ability to regulate supply and demand and optimize pricing systems through market-oriented means, injecting confidence into leading the industry out of the adjustment period.

When prices become more transparent, channels become healthier, consumption becomes more real, and development becomes more certain, the high-quality development path of the baijiu industry can also proceed more steadily. Moutai’s move is expected to guide the industry to shift from “cycle anxiety” to “value deepening,” providing a reference path for the industry to get through this round of adjustment cycle.

(Source: Economic Daily News)