CITIC Construction Investment | Nationwide rollout of long-term care insurance: Aging + policy-driven, igniting a new blue ocean in the silver economy

By | Yuan Qinghui Wang Zaicun Liu Ruofei Shen Yi Tang Ran He Juying

Our country is actively advancing the long-term care insurance system. We have studied and compared the long-term care insurance policies of some key overseas countries and believe that China’s long-term care insurance policy design is relatively scientific. The National Healthcare Security Administration is advancing it vigorously, and by the end of 2028, it will basically achieve nationwide unified coverage, which is of great significance for people with disabilities and their family members. Based on our estimates, the total premium scale of China’s long-term care insurance is expected to reach around RMB 180 billion after five years. In the long run, it will drive incremental care market demand exceeding RMB 1 trillion, boost domestic demand within related industries, and we are optimistic about investment opportunities in certain household medical devices, medical equipment, and elderly care service-related companies.

In 2026, nationwide rollout of long-term care insurance enters an accelerated period, driving domestic demand in related industries

Industry policy risk: the risk of changes in research and design requirements brought about by industry policy adjustments, changes in pricing, changes in volume-based procurement policies, and risks arising from changes in the scope and ratios of medical insurance reimbursement. In particular, changes in centralized procurement and medical insurance payment policies may have a significant impact on industry development expectations.

Risk of not meeting R&D expectations: during the R&D process of new drugs and devices, there are risks such as uncertainty in clinical enrollment progress and uncertainty in data for efficacy outcomes and safety outcomes.

Risk of delayed/unsatisfactory approval expectations: during the approval process, there is a risk that the approval timeline may be extended due to factors such as requests for additional materials and changes in the approval workflow.

Macroeconomic environment volatility risk: the global economic growth rate further slows, which may affect downstream demand. In addition, risks regarding international relations, climate change, inflation, and risks related to exchange rates and interest rates also need to be considered.

Securities research report title: 《Pharmaceutical and healthcare industry weekly report: Long-term care insurance rolled out nationwide—aging + policy-driven, unleashing a new blue ocean for the silver economy》

External release date: March 29, 2026

Report issuing organization: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

This report’s analyst:

Yuan Qinghui SAC ID: S1440520030001

SFC ID: BPW879

Wang Zaicun SAC ID: S1440521070003

Liu Ruofei SAC ID: S1440519080003

SFC ID: BVX723

Shen Yi SAC ID: S1440525080005

Tang Ran SAC ID: S1440524100001

He Juying SAC ID: S1440517050001

SFC ID: ASZ591

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