[US Stock Market] Powell indicates that monetary policy has a lagging effect and hints that interest rate hikes may not occur in the short term. Oil prices jump 2%, Dow Jones rises 320 points (updating continuously)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday (30th) during public remarks that the Fed’s response to the Iran war largely depends on how the conflict affects Americans’ inflation expectations. He noted that people often overlook any form of supply shocks. But the key is that inflation expectations must be closely watched.

He also said that, as is well known, monetary policy has long and unpredictable lags. By the time the effects of tighter monetary policy become visible, the oil price shock may have already passed, and statements or hints may not necessarily lead to rate hikes in the short term.

On Monday, U.S. President Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying the United States is conducting serious talks with a brand-new, more rational Iranian regime to end the military operations in Iran. He also mentioned that the talks have made significant progress, but if for any reason an agreement cannot be reached as quickly as possible—and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened for commercial navigation—then they will blow up and completely destroy all of Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, including all seawater desalination plants.

He added that the United States has intentionally avoided touching the facilities mentioned above, saying the action is in retaliation for Iran killing and murdering many U.S. soldiers and other personnel during the “terror rule” of the previous Iranian regime for as long as 47 years.

Ghazanfari, chairman of the Executive Committee of Iran’s National Development Fund, then rebutted that Iran’s power plants are widely dispersed and more numerous, which reduces the likelihood of a full nationwide blackout. He said that if Iran’s power generation facilities are targeted, Iran will plunge the entire region into a power outage state, and he said Iran’s armed forces have the capability to do so.

Ghazanfari also said that countries supporting actions by the United States and Israel will have to pay a price for it sooner or later, which may be reflected in damage to their own homeland or in shouldering compensation for losses suffered by Iran in the future.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, when speaking with foreign media, said that the global oil market has ample supply, with more and more vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. As time goes on, the United States will regain control of the Strait of Hormuz, which will achieve freedom of navigation—whether through U.S. escort or multinational escort.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that although the situation between the United States, Israel, and Iran remains tense, Trump still leans toward resolving the Iran issue through diplomatic channels. In an interview, he pointed out that the United States and Iran are still communicating indirectly through intermediaries, showing that even though there is a conflict, diplomatic channels remain open.

He also accused Iran’s leadership of using national resources to support regional armed groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shiite militias, while also threatening neighboring countries. He welcomed, however, any change in the leadership’s political ideas, and said the U.S. will “seize” any opportunity that can prompt Iran to change its political direction.

There are signs of an escalation in the Middle East situation; oil prices continue to move higher. Brent May futures rose by more than 2% again to $115.08 per barrel, and June futures also climbed to $107.71. New York oil futures broke above the $100 mark, trading at $101.81 per barrel, up 2.2%. The gold price decline was contained; it was temporarily up 0.8%, at $4,531.24 per ounce.

U.S. stocks rebounded at the open on Monday. The Dow rose 320 points to 45,487; the S&P rose 23 points to 6,392; the Nasdaq rose 31 points, or 0.2%, to 20,980. The U.S. this week will release March ADP employment changes, the March ISM manufacturing index, the March unemployment rate, and nonfarm payroll data.

U.S. President Trump claimed that Iran has “agreed” to most of the 15 war-ending demands the United States presented to Tehran, although it is currently unclear whether the two sides are truly negotiating.

Trump said, “They agreed to most of what we asked. How could they not?” and added, “We will also put forward some other demands.” However, he refused to disclose what specific concessions Iran has made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continually being refreshed—please see the next page for details

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Intraday performance:

【23:10】Powell says monetary policy has lags and hints rates may not be raised in the short term; oil jumps 2%; Dow up 320 points

【21:30】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, they will blow up all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells; oil jumps 2%; Dow up 396 points

【19:55】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, they will destroy all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells; oil jumps another 2%; Dow futures up 244 points

【18:15】Dow futures up 153 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%—this week focuses on Middle East conflict plus nonfarm data

【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms the death of the Navy commander of the Revolutionary Guards｜denies any direct negotiations (continuously updated)

【13:26】Dow futures up 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures up 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures up 22 points or nearly 0.1% to 23,351.

【13:26】NYMEX crude oil futures up 1.3% to $100.98; Brent May futures up 2.3% to $115.17. As for gold prices, they stabilized after the latest move: NY gold futures up 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold up 0.4% to $4,512.

【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: Lock in the 2% inflation target; it’s still too early to talk about rate hikes now; warns of systemic risk to the U.S. financial system

【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and occupy Kharg Island’s export hub

【10:21】【Japanese yen moves】Jun Mura-mura warns it will take “bold action”; 4.9 Hong Kong dollars per 100 yen

【09:30】【Oil price moves】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, though the pain level is only half of the 2007 crisis peak

【09:17】【Gold price moves】After gold recorded its first rise since the outbreak of the Middle East war last week, gold prices fell again this week

【08:33】【Iran crisis】War escalation in Iran pushes oil prices higher; stock markets in Japan and South Korea also experienced “Black Monday”

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil rises another 2%. Pakistan: U.S.-Iran talks will be held in the coming days; Iran allows 20 ships to pass through the strait; Trump considers dispatching ground forces (continuously updated)

【07:30】U.S. President Trump said he will extend the bombing of Iran’s power plants by 10 more days. This did not ease market concerns; instead, he is worried that the prolonged fighting will affect oil supply and intensify the impact on the global economy. U.S. stocks fell last Friday: the Dow closed at 45,166 points, down 793 points; the S&P fell 1.67%; and the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.

Watch U.S. stock closing prices live:

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U.S. stock market developments last week—for details, see: 【U.S. stock close】Iran says nuclear facilities were hit; fighting could expand; Dow plunges 793 points; oil prices rise; U.S. dollar moves above 100

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