Few signs of easing in Iran conflicts, and Brent crude oil may break the record for the largest monthly gain in history!

International oil prices surged sharply on Monday, with Brent crude’s month-to-date gain nearing 60%, and it is on track to set a record for the largest monthly increase ever.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump issued new threats to Iran regarding a ceasefire. On the 30th, Trump said the United States is having serious discussions with a “new, more rational administration,” and if no agreement is reached with Iran, it will “completely destroy” all of the country’s power plants, oil wells, and the island of Khark. Iran believes that while the United States is sending out signals for negotiations, it is also plotting a ground invasion; the U.S. troop buildup in the Middle East is cited as evidence for this view.

Signs that the conflict is spreading have further heightened supply risks, and oil prices continuing to climb will put pressure onto broader global energy markets. JPMorgan analysts noted that the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb—two major global energy trade arteries—are exposed to conflict risks at the same time, shrinking rerouting options and significantly raising systemic risk across global supply chains.

Trump escalates threats, oil prices jump

On Monday, according to FactSet data, the May settlement for Brent crude rose 2.1% to $114.71 per barrel, while the most active June contract rose 2.1% in tandem to $107.39; the May WTI contract rose 2% to $100.77 per barrel.

Brent crude futures’ month-to-date gain has already neared 60%, and it is poised to set the biggest monthly increase in history. WTI crude futures are up 51.2% so far this month. During the trading session, Brent crude’s intraday high reached $108.78 per barrel, while WTI’s high reached $101.78 per barrel.

On social media, Trump wrote: “The United States is having serious discussions with a new, more rational administration to end our military actions in Iran. Great progress has already been made, but if for any reason we fail to reach an agreement soon (which is likely to happen), and if the Strait of Hormuz does not immediately ‘open for business,’ then we will end our happy ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely destroying all of their power plants, oil wells, and the island of Khark (possibly also including all desalination plants)—targets we previously had no intention of ‘touching’—to put an end to it.”

Conflict spreads as both major energy corridors come under strain

In a research report published Sunday, a JPMorgan analyst team led by Natasha Kaneva said the fighting has extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb—key choke points for global oil trade—now drawn into it. “In fact, two major routes of global energy trade are facing risks at the same time, rerouting options are narrowing, and systemic risks to the global supply chain are rising sharply.”

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said Trump’s remarks about seizing Iranian oil and the island of Khark, the U.S. military troop buildup, and the participation of the Houthi armed group together are creating a situation in which the conflict continues to escalate rather than head toward an end.

Ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflict, disruptions to key shipping lanes, and unclear prospects for diplomatic talks are keeping oil prices supported at high levels and may potentially affect global energy supply chains and the Federal Reserve’s path for monetary policy.

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