[Red Envelope] 3.30: Huadian Shuanglong has eliminated the leading player. Can Changfei Fiber Optic lead the trend back?

Preface: “Wistfully vast—asking the boundless land, who governs the rise and fall?”[TaoGuba]

In this market, I really want to borrow my grandpa’s voice to shout out: “Wistfully vast—asking the boundless land, who governs the rise and fall.” No one can replace the pace of progress. When you ask the quantitative market, who governs the rise and fall? For orders on the millisecond scale, at a rate of 299 trades per second, it wipes out everything. A sector can make a major advance within 20 minutes, or it can also make a full-on retreat within 20 minutes. If someone really wants a comparatively stable “slow bull” market, does the existence of quant strategies violate this principle? The “yous” have already been forcibly cleared out; the market no longer has any premium from ultra-short-term sentiment and brutal force. But on the quant side, the rate of harvesting seems even harsher—faster and more brutal than the yous. That runs counter to the original intention of healthy and constructive market development.

Michelangelo is not a trader who’s willing to crush the downside. Even if a breakdown occurs, he will still wait for a respectable rebound before deciding where to cut and exit. Up to now, I can’t help but be convinced: the market teaches every player who still has human instincts. If you have even a small streak of luck—waiting for a rebound or waiting for a repair—you’ll end up with your bones buried in the quant graveyard with nothing left.

After the close, staying in front of the screen for a few hours, thinking about the way out N years from now. The A-share market is still one dominated by retail investors. Here, the biggest capital has moved forward with top-tier quantitative models to harvest retail investors, forcing retail to exit the market. Is that conducive to the future where residents’ deposits shift toward financial investments? At this point, Michelangelo also believes in the village’s wisdom—that it can build a healthy and positive market, where all kinds of investors come to A-shares and can enjoy the national-growth benefits brought by financial markets. But value investing doesn’t seem to be the mainstream right now. In 3 years, 5 years, 10 years—when most retail investors have been largely eliminated—can they then guide the market into a good one? It feels like an aggressive leap—wanting to run a quant model with 800 horsepower and go all-in in one step.

Everything has its measure, and everything has its laws. For those retail friends who’ve been in A-shares for more than 30 years since the market’s founding, they shouldn’t always be the ones getting hurt. They should reasonably enjoy the benefits that national growth brings to ordinary people. If you want to strangle the trend of speculation, Michelangelo agrees. But completely strangling speculation is essentially strangling the market’s nature. Any market has speculation—that’s a built-in trait of capital. It’s the balanced operation of speculation and investment within reasonable limits that makes a healthy market.

Back to the board: here, the index projections and judgments are still fine. After the live stream yesterday, I said there are two evolution paths for the index. One is sideways base-building; the other is a drop of 3. Under external negative news, A-shares still can’t fall, meaning the bottom here. Basically, this bottom is the bottom of these past few months—even the bottom of this year. Today is 2026.3.20; we’ll revisit this conclusion again when New Year’s Day arrives.

An index projection being correct isn’t enough—you also need to lock onto the themes and anchor specific stocks. The true acceleration major advance in power is brought by Hádian Liaoning Energy. Why are people so积极 (proactively) slicing into lower positions to catch up with补涨 (catch-up gains) right now? It’s because Hádian Liaoning Energy has broken out to an unexpected 8th board. For the strengthening of the power cycle and the height of subsequent catch-up moves, it has a tailwind effect. For example, if Hádian Liaoning Energy is at 8, then the catch-up height should be around 5–6. That kind of cycle “buff” is what a leader should bring to the market.

It seems like the market is completely different. Since the end of the aerospace cycle, once the yous disappeared, the market has only had one way of thinking: quantitative arbitrage thinking. There’s no longer the concept of an absolute leader. All kinds of strategies have become tools for harvesting quantitative “corpus.” After the aerospace cycle ended, it was directly slammed to death; most of them got A-selled. After silver and nonferrous metals opened to an 8-board height, the high didn’t feed back into the next node. When Hádian Liaoning Energy just opened a level that was beyond expectations, within 3 days the market returned to its original form—so much that even a catch-up move didn’t get nurtured. Why would someone dare to do a low-position catch-up board? Because they saw Hádian Liaoning Energy print an upside move beyond expectations, and therefore chose to gamble on continuation. If the market were like Shùn Nà Shares一直压在4板以内 (always capped within 4 boards), Michelangelo’s early move would also be completely in line. Is Hádian Liaoning Energy in this battle exactly a typical quant trait? Because the height produced by sentiment and hotspot effects has no meaningful impact on how subsequent events develop. The “elders” rule the world; the “smaller ones” don’t even get to feel the little bit of grace.

As a trader, don’t blame the heavens or complain about your fate. If you run into problems, just think about how to respond even more perfectly next time. In hindsight, everything is right. But being in the moment, you’ll feel lost and anxious about the next step’s projection. If the market is going to be played like this in the future, it’s actually simple: just don’t carry any “leader mindset” or “continuation strategy.” Look at the intraday quant strength, anchor core stocks based on your understanding of the themes, take a bite and run. If it doesn’t board the next day, exit. This mindset is the shortest and most practical: don’t try to predict how the next cycle will go, or how to control theme rhythm and sentiment rhythm. Buy when there’s strength, sell the next day—when the next wave of strength continues, do it again. Build a trading machine that no longer relies on human nature. Only then can you live longer.

Adjust your mindset well. Since the market forces everyone to play like this, don’t be stubborn. Follow the market. Since only stampedes can get positions offloaded, whenever you run into disagreements, everyone should actively compete for speed. Don’t constrain yourself by the prior cycle’s height, and don’t constrain yourself by traditional frameworks either. Align more with the playstyles of the new era. When you’re buying, follow quant strategies to buy fast; when you’re selling, also rush to sell along with it.

Encountering problems isn’t scary. What’s scary is being stubborn with yourself, and clashing with the times. That would be a loss. After this round of base-building in the index, the future will still be精彩 (exciting). Don’t give up expectations for a bull market rally, and don’t give up on polishing your system. Every time you dig deeper and think now, it will help you successfully avoid the same situation in the future—and it will help you survive. Little by little, bit by bit—that is victory.

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3.30: The index is consolidating and building a base! Power sector retreats; the market starts transitioning. On Friday: lithium batteries, chemicals. On Monday: medicine, aerospace, chemicals, agriculture, consumer, aluminum, Strait [Sea/Strait-related], computing power, robotics, and more. Mostly it’s a rotational transition.
**

1. The overall market**
   **
   Market trading value: 1.9275 trillion, with a net increase of 63.8 billion. 62 stocks hit limit-up; 10 hit limit-down. Yellow-white crosses; both large- and small-cap stocks today have entered weak repair.**

With today’s K-line opened by a gap, the big structure can basically be set. The key is that here the market needs to go sideways, consolidate, and build the base structure—like in November and December 2025. The approximate model for the index should be: first go back to fill the 3955.71-point gap, and then do another test low. The major-advance bull phase is highly likely to come. The expectation for a bull market is still there. Now, before the big 5th wave major advance begins, the market needs to complete a round of base-building and accumulation.

Today’s market sentiment is weakly repairing. In the morning, when there was index disagreement, bidding was influenced by external news, but it didn’t affect intraday sentiment repair. This repair is on reduced volume, so rotation-based repair is the main driver. Large caps and small caps both repair together. But in the power sector, there have been too many limit-down boards, causing a situation that should have repaired to instead become weak. Due to the power limit-down tide, a weak pattern emerges. Red and green are roughly equal; 10 stocks hit limit-down, and the market’s breadth height is at 5. For the subsequent base-building, it likely will be trend-led, and also a rotation trend across each theme.

2. Sectors
**
On the theme front, during the opening auction, aluminum was the strongest. After the open, quantitative arbitrage went into aluminum for intraday short-term spreads. As index disagreement looked like it was fading on the power side, permissions flowed out and disagreements in power retreated. Meanwhile agriculture, chemicals, medicine, aerospace, and others started rebounding. During the day, the AI side started to rebound and lead strength, and the Strait [Sea/Strait-related] also began to perform. Across the whole day, there was only one recurring feature: index disagreement. Funds went to避险 (hedging) themes and to profit from older “dragon” trades. When the index pulled back, funds started doing 顺指数 (follow-the-index) themes.

Computing power industry chain

2-board: Fals Sheng, Hangdian Shares, Guigang Network

1-board: Huashengchang, Yunsai Zhilian, Jiangshun Technology, Fujing Technology, Titan Shares, Honghe Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Changfei Optical Fiber, Lianxiang Shares

Catalyzed by news, China’s manufacturing of optical cables is seeing a global surge in orders. Changfei Optical Fiber has remained operating in a sustained trend. In this regard, focus on two points: on one hand, the NVIDIA industrial chain—which institutions previously重点布局 (focused on)—has suffered a pullback due to volatility in U.S. stocks. But institutional capital will definitely seek new directions to exert force; whether the optical communication sector can replicate last year’s explosive burst in the computing power industry chain is worth a key consideration. On the other hand, every time this sector pulls back, the magnitude is large. You need to control timing and handle volatility cautiously.

What’s most important: now that the index has stopped falling, every time the index pulls back and then rebounds, it’s basically using AI—AI’s subdivisions are mostly overseas computing power, not domestic computing power. You need to keep this rhythm under control. That is: if in the future the index continues to open into a major advance, it will very likely still be the institutional-type AI trend. You should keep looking at overseas computing power, not domestic computing power.

Commercial aerospace

3-board: Shenjian Shares
1-board: Aerospace Power, Zhongheng Design, Xuelang Environment, Yangtze River Communications, Leqai Film, Re-Sheng Technology, Qifan Cables, Guanglian Aviation

When the power sector is adjusting amid differences, it’s precisely the moment when funds are looking for a new breakthrough and pushing hard. Shenjian Shares rides on the disagreement within the power sector and upgrades to the 3-board. What to watch is: once the power sector completes short-term repair and funds return, it will very likely launch a capital diversion attack on the currently strong aerospace sector, forming direct competition between sectors.

From the capital perspective: in the early stage, the power sector saw deep capital involvement, and the chips have accumulated sufficiently. Short-term disagreement is not an end to the trend. After that, there will still be repeated oscillations and high-low switching; there won’t be a one-way unilateral market. In terms of execution, you don’t need to overthink the short-term up or down of a single sector. Instead, pay attention to changes in capital flows between the two key sectors, grasp the pace of the fight between sectors, and flexibly deal with the switching between disagreements and repairs—so as to avoid sector rotation risks.

Medicine & healthcare

5-board: Menuo Pharma
2-board: Jinyao Pharmaceutical, Lianhuan Biopharma, Ji’an Medical, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical
1-board: Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, Asia-Pacific Pharma, Haitai Xinguang, Selly Medical

The weight-loss drug theme got blocked by the lithium battery theme. The core hidden thread is that performance is needed to be released in April. Menuo Pharma’s attempt to push to 5 boards triggered sector fermentation. But its first-board fermentation was weak, and at the close there were signs that related convertible bonds were抢跑 (front-running). Worth noting: Wanbangde, which started at around the same time as Menuo Pharma, did not follow a straight連板 path. Instead, it advanced in a trend-acceleration shape. Going forward, you need to focus on whether the medicine sector can form a new trend-driven sector.

Aluminum

1-board: Tianshan Aluminum, Changlu Shares, Minfa Aluminum, Aluminum International, Liyuan Shares, Yiqiu Resources, Nanshan Aluminum

The first mode of quant arbitrage: if the strength at the opening auction is strong, you can do intraday short-term spreads. The news trigger is: two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have separately confirmed that they were attacked by Iran recently.

Fujian

1-board: Pingtan Development, Zhangzhou Development, Hefu China

Pingtan Hefei is more about grouping when the index drops. You can observe whether Zhangzhou Development is Fujian green power. If the power sector repairs tomorrow, can it capture a first-mover premium.

Lithium batteries / Photovoltaics

1-board: Kedali, Titan Shares, Guosheng Technology, Bangjie Shares, Leqai Film

The 4-board leader of the sector lost out at the opening auction to weight-loss drugs, but there are many trend-style back-reversal formations in the sector. More of it is trend-type setups. Just pay attention to the risk of chasing after strength.

Agriculture

2-board: Sinong United, Sulih Shares
1-board: Jinjian Rice Industry, Jingji Intelligent Agriculture, Xinnong Development

In the early session, when the index was falling, it fermented into agriculture as a避险 (defensive) theme. Last time, the pesticide fermentation happened when the index was falling continuously. This time, with both energy (electric power) and medicine present, there shouldn’t be a lack of identity.

Power grids / Power utilities

1-board: Anhui Construction Engineering, Xin Hongtai, Qifan Cables, Zhangzhou Development, Great Wall Technology

This sector must be emphasized: the “China Power Second Board leader”補涨 (catch-up) of the traditional sense completely failed—every single one of them. Without exception. Today, the number of short-term “board-picking”高手 betting on the Guangxi “old cousin” is definitely not small. In the end, most of them still can’t escape the fate of being trapped. Now, quant capital has already calculated with precision every operation node of the leader-chasing playbook, every step of the rhythm, and it tightly controls everything. This round of power sector catch-up trading is basically a precise “grass-cutter” machine. It not only harvests floating gains, but also directly uproots from the roots—leaving many followers with severe losses.

When a big-theme catch-up boom appears again in the future, every short-term trader must calm down and deeply think: how should you respond to the new playstyles and new traps under quant dominance? You can treat one mistake as experience accumulation—but you absolutely must not fall into the same pit twice, repeating the same kind of loss.

Also need to focus on the rebound vanguard within the power sector. Power should stop falling and repair tomorrow. There should appear a strength core to lead the power sector’s rebound and repair. This needs attention: if power spikes up, be careful about the risk of a hedging pullback.

Quick summary: The current market is in the stage of rotation disagreements among sectors—no clear main line has formed. It’s in the early stage of sentiment repair with a cautious stand-by posture; it hasn’t reached an optimistic zone. Sentiment-wise, the capital battle is intense, sector disagreements are clear, and short-term traps dominated by quant strategies are prominent. The money-making effect is concentrated in a small number of strong names. The board-to-board (連板) nodes are relatively weakened; no detailed analysis for now. Execution-wise, you need to avoid rotation risks, focus on sector capital flow directions, and flexibly respond to switching between disagreements and repairs. Don’t blindly follow board-hunting. Throughout the day, themes showed the characteristics of “strong opening auction and intraday divergence.” Aluminum had the strongest auction; at the close, optical communication became the direction favored by institutional grouping; the power sector’s catch-up action is completely weak. The key pivot is the seesaw effect between the power and aerospace sectors. Pay special attention to the opening auction performance of Shenjian Shares, the power rebound vanguard, and Zhangzhou Development. Overall risk appetite is moderate to cautious. Prioritize controlling timing and be careful about chasing higher prices. Also today it’s observable that the market is beginning to spread out into Zhejiang-related names. The “Da” (达) cohort markets seem to like them; trend bias is starting to take over from board bias, taking control of the market. You should watch for the shift in bias, and also the add-on points of how the market selects stocks.

3. Individual stock analysis

**Jin Kong Power / Qian Yuan Power: **After the power sector sells off across the board, no longer watch.

**Merrill Cloud (Meili Yun): **After the index sells off, no longer watch.

**Honghe / International: **After the index stabilizes, it pulls back; this is a left-side prediction of the market. Observe the electronics “bu” (布).

Overall, observe four things—mainly the electronics “bu” related to overseas computing power.

4. Tomorrow’s approach

On the index: The 5-day K has turned upward; it begins to challenge the 10-day K. The first target is 3955.71 points. If at that position you can’t release 2.3 trillion in volume, be a bit cautious.

On the cycle: The power cycle has ended; capital is rotating outward for transition. Friday’s chemicals and lithium batteries; today’s medicine, aerospace, Strait [Sea/Strait-related], aluminum, and so on.

On sentiment: On Tuesday, sentiment will first surge up to fill the gap, and then there will be disagreement. That means if tomorrow you can’t catch up and fill the gap, you’ll need to take profits and exit/stop following first.

On nodes: Right now, board-to-board nodes are again weakening, being taken over by trends—so no analysis for now.

On risk appetite: Capital starts shifting from boards to trends, and the changes are fast. Keep looking around trend plays.

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Thanks to the following brothers and sisters for pushing the oil. Don’t forget to cheer on—everything will be red for eternity!

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Thanks to the following brothers and sisters for your tips/rewards. Here’s a praise song—may your fortune be prosperous!
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