Trump once again delays the TACO crackdown; releasing inventories and easing sanctions make it difficult to suppress oil prices. Short-term inflation heats up in the US but remains stable in the medium term — 0330 Macro Dehydration

On March 23, Trump unilaterally claimed that the U.S. and Iran had held talks, and postponed strikes on power stations, but Iran denied any contact, again staging a TACO (concession), and the market was not broadly optimistic about it. Trump has pushed back the deadline to reopen the strait to April 6, becoming the next key checkpoint for market watchers.

Faced with persistently rising oil prices, the U.S. government has taken measures such as releasing strategic reserves, easing sanctions, and rerouting via pipelines, but it has been difficult to fully suppress the risk premium. If oil prices continue to run out of control, the U.S. government may take steps such as export controls, the Treasury directly buying and selling crude oil futures, and shifting toward interventions on the consumption side.

Affected by the U.S.-Iran war, U.S. economic momentum has slowed somewhat. In March, the composite PMI came in below expectations, and consumer confidence fell more than expected. High oil prices have lifted short-term inflation expectations, while mid-term inflation expectations remain anchored near the Fed’s target. The labor market has cooled at the margin, and the next thing to watch is the further impact of energy shocks on employment.