Pig prices fall below 5 yuan, hitting a historic low

“Pork prices are going down; the original price was 5.99 yuan per jin, and now it’s 20% off.”

“Prices are now below 5 yuan already. I haven’t bought pork this cheap for years”……

Recently, news that pork prices have been falling across the board has drawn attention. On March 23, Zhuochuang Information monitored that the national transaction average price of lean-type live pigs was 9.71 yuan per kilogram (i.e., it fell below 5 yuan per jin), reaching a historic low. At the same time, the main contract of live pig futures fell to 9,815 yuan per ton during the trading session on March 27, which was also a historic low since the futures product was listed in January 2021.

This is a pork price notice board photographed on March 24 in Beijing’s Xinfadi meat trading hall. Photo source: Xinhua News Agency

Pork prices in many places fall to near recent lows

According to Xinhua News Agency, reporters learned through recent investigations in multiple places including Liaoning, Henan, and Beijing that in many locations pork prices have reached lows in recent years, and after March they have continued to accelerate downward.

On March 24, the reporter saw at a farmers’ market near Xuecheng Road in Hunnan District, Shenyang, Liaoning Province that the pork price had dropped to around 10 yuan per jin, and the labeled price of pork on special promotion was even lower than the price of green peppers, ginger, and garlic next to it. Stall owner Wang Hongliang said that after the Spring Festival, pork prices fell by about 2 yuan per jin compared with during the Spring Festival. “Although the low price attracts many residents to stop and look, fresh pork is a fast-moving consumer good, and sales volume doesn’t increase much.”

“Starting from August 2025, the out-of-pen price for ‘wai san yuan’ live pigs has been falling from over 7 yuan per jin all the way down to now only a bit over 5 yuan. Over the years, there hasn’t been a price this low.” Huang Dan,负责人 of Ruihui Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yiyang City, Hunan Province, told reporters.

A person in charge of the livestock sector of the agricultural and rural affairs bureau of a certain county in Henan Province said that currently the local market price for live pigs (maozhu) is between 4.7 and 6 yuan per jin. Even under self-breeding and self-raising conditions, this price isn’t enough to cover costs. If labor costs are factored in, raising a pig may lose a couple hundred yuan.

Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on 500 county-level wholesale markets and collection points across the country shows that in the 3rd week of March 2026, for piglets, 26.2 yuan per kilogram, down 2.6% month-on-month and down 30% year-on-year; for live pigs, 11.05 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% month-on-month and down 28% year-on-year; and for pork, 22 yuan per kilogram, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 16.5% year-on-year.

Not long ago, at a symposium on live pig breeding enterprises organized by relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, it was considered that due to factors such as a pullback in consumption demand after the holidays, the live pig price has fallen to the stage of entering an early-warning range for excessive declines.

Why has pork pricing continued to fall?

What is the reason behind the decline in live pig prices? How should all parties respond? “Xinhua Insight” reporters conducted an investigation recently.

The continued decline in pork prices in the near term is the result of multiple factors intertwined.

Wang Zuli, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and a scientific researcher for the industry economic post in the national live pig industry technology system, said that currently, live pig supply is at a high level.

Wang Zuli said that in the first half of last year, China’s live pig production capacity was at a relatively high level. In addition, over the past few years, the efficiency of live pig production has improved significantly. Especially after the African swine fever outbreak, many breeding enterprises not only improved breeding stock, but also updated facilities and equipment such as pig pens, resulting in clear improvements in live pig production capacity and disease prevention capabilities.

What is also worth noting is that pork prices are particularly sensitive to market supply and demand. Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, explained that the relationship between pork supply quantity and market price is not a one-to-one proportion. If supply changes slightly, it may still trigger obvious fluctuations in prices.

In addition, pork demand has entered a seasonal consumption off-peak period. “After the Spring Festival, the market generally enters a seasonal off-peak period for pork consumption,” Wang Zuli explained.

Industry insiders told reporters that at present, many breeders are not optimistic about near-term pig prices. When facing funding pressure, they choose to speed up their schedule for bringing pigs to market, and the increase in supply pressure in the short term leads to further declines in current pork prices.

When will supply and demand rebalance again?

Zhu Zengyong and other industry insiders believe that currently, supply pressure for live pigs continues to exist, and in the first half of this year pork prices may overall remain at low levels. It is expected that as the effects of prior capacity regulation gradually take hold, and as pork consumption moves out of the off-peak season, the supply-demand relationship in the live pig market in the second half of the year is expected to improve.

It is understood that the state has started purchasing and storing central frozen pork reserves, and is also guiding local areas to simultaneously increase their efforts to purchase and store, in order to form regulatory synergy. At the same time, relevant departments have also built a coordinated mechanism between capacity regulation and reserve adjustment.

In the next step, departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission will closely monitor the supply-demand situation and price trends in the live pig market, intensify and issue more frequent early-warning information, study and adjust downward the target for the normal number of sow inventory nationwide (capable for breeding), and further release signals to reduce capacity. At the same time, they will carry out production filing and备案 management for large-scale pig enterprises, continuously strengthen comprehensive capacity regulation for live pigs, promptly conduct reserve adjustments, and promote stable operation of the live pig market.

Source: ZhiJian News Shenyang Evening News 综合 Xinhua News Agency, 21st Century Economic Herald, Guangzhou Daily

【Source: The Great Wall Net】